My Outlook: La Nina is DONE ..How warm will SST's Get ?

[Jim Hughes]

I keep reading these comments about whether the La Nina is dead or alive? IT is DEAD people. The key here is whether the upcoming El Nino trend will be warm enough to have consequences upon this upcoming hurricane season. I think it might in the latter half.

The SOI should be joining the SST's as the summer moves on. As many know I am one of these people who think that these are two different entities.

I also use a different methodology for forecasting these trends.


Jim

[CHRISTY]

I keep reading these comments about whether the La Nina is dead or alive? IT is DEAD people. The key here is whether the upcoming El Nino trend will be warm enough to have consequences upon this upcoming hurricane season. I think it might in the latter half.

The SOI should be joining the SST's as the summer moves on. As many know I am one of these people who think that these are two different entities.

I also use a different methodology for forecasting these trends.


Jim

i think we will have neutral conditions until very late this year...so i think EL NINO's affect will probably be felt in 2007.

[Jim Hughes]

i think we will have neutral conditions until very late this year...so i think EL NINO's affect will probably be felt in 2007.

The effect from either ENSO phase is somewhat more dominant during the winter. The last two years should have shown people this. Even without a full blown one present.

NOAA, and some others, have been getting soemwhat tricked the past couple of years by the timing of the QBO changes. It has been coming later and away from winter.

This had pushed the transition period back slightly and the ENSO trends in 2004 & 05 came into place later.

The Atlantic season simmered down in late 04...maybe weak EL Nino related and the exact opposite occurred last year.

I bet that Klotzbach & Gray WILL NOT raise their numbers any more and they might even lower the hurricane or major totals by one or so. If it develops of course.



Jim

[MiamiensisWx]

If the La Nina may be close to over, why does the current pattern over North America resemble La Nina-like conditions? Also, why do you think cooler SSTs are rebounding off western South America, strengthening, and moving westward? Also, current Great Plains ridging and other factors (negative NAO block) are now in place. Jim, what are your thoughts on this?

[Jim Hughes]

If the La Nina may be close to over, why does the current pattern over North America resemble La Nina-like conditions? Also, why do you think cooler SSTs are rebounding off western South America, strengthening, and moving westward? Also, current Great Plains ridging and other factors (negative NAO block) are now in place. Jim, what are your thoughts on this?

Your basically talking about apples and oranges here CapeVerdeWave.
My thoughts were about the ENSO and it's current or upcoming phase. The overall weather or teleconnection patterns are a different story.

You have to remember it takes longer for certain things (weather / teleconnection patterns) to develop because of lag times. Some of course precede others.

The La Nina is history and that is the bottom line here. As far as the cooler SST's off of South America. This is not the best place to look for ENSO conditions. There are a couple of other thngs that influence it more. But it will also change if the warming trend becomes strong enough.


Jim

[Gtmalacd]

http://tao.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/index_ndbc.shtml

can someone explain the above site for me, thanks..

[CHRISTY]

hey jim what is your thinking on the bermuda high...its been very persistant so far!its almost similar to 2004.

[Ivan14]

I don't think we will have an El Nino at the very least until 2007. and I still think the 2007 season will be neutral. But who knows I could be wrong I usually am anyway.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Well IMO its all well and good to read these forcasts and see if they come true or not but I will wait until the offical word on if la nina and el nino is around and how it might affect the upcoming season! from what I understand from offical forcasts el nino isn't expected for atleast the next 6 months so that is what I will go by right now!

[Jim Hughes]

Well IMO its all well and good to read these forcasts and see if they come true or not but I will wait until the offical word on if la nina and el nino is around and how it might affect the upcoming season! from what I understand from offical forcasts el nino isn't expected for atleast the next 6 months so that is what I will go by right now!

James,

If you follow official forecasts you would have noticed over the years that NOAA or the CPC can be some of the latest to get on board an occurance.

Go back and read some of the Storm2k threads last fall. Many of us were talking about the obvious cooling phase/La Nina. NOAA finally comes out and gets on board and then it weakens within a month or two.

Now I realize that there are many facets to the ENSO phases and some people may not even follow things enough to understand. Or maybe they even disregard certain relationships. But this is so obvious it's ridiculous.

I am sorry but hanging on to this La Nina belief, because the experts have not given you the right sign yet , is a little like believing it can not be raining outside because the weatherman hasn't told you it is yet.

In this particular case. The radar is lit up with yellow and red and it's pouring outside.

A warming trend is definitely developing. The key is how much and how quickly? My answer would be. Watch the sun and it will tell you the answer.


Jim

[Gtmalacd]

Well IMO its all well and good to read these forcasts and see if they come true or not but I will wait until the offical word on if la nina and el nino is around and how it might affect the upcoming season! from what I understand from offical forcasts el nino isn't expected for atleast the next 6 months so that is what I will go by right now!

James,

If you follow official forecasts you would have noticed over the years that NOAA or the CPC can be some of the latest to get on board an occurance.

Go back and read some of the Storm2k threads last fall. Many of us were talking about the obvious cooling phase/La Nina. NOAA finally comes out and gets on board and then it weakens within a month or two.

Now I realize that there are many facets to the ENSO phases and some people may not even follow things enough to understand. Or maybe they even disregard certain relationships. But this is so obvious it's ridiculous.

I am sorry but hanging on to this La Nina belief, because the experts have not given you the right sign yet , is a little like believing it can not be raining outside because the weatherman hasn't told you it is yet.

In this particular case. The radar is lit up with yellow and red and it's pouring outside.

A warming trend is definitely developing. The key is how much and how quickly? My answer would be. Watch the sun and it will tell you the answer.


Jim

Right on Jim. It has been very, very warm here in Guate, but I hear a little warm the further south you go. The slip of cold tongue you see, I feel is topical. The sun has been active, thus the crazy weather happening around the world.

[Johnny]

Hey Jim, have you come out with a tropical forecast for this year? If so, where can I go to read it? Thanks.

[x-y-no]

I see very little chance of an el Nino this year.

Here's the SST anomaly at this time last yer:


http://snark.themedwiz.com/public/anomn ... 3.2005.gif


and here's this year:


http://snark.themedwiz.com/public/anomn ... 2.2006.gif


The equatorial pacific is cooler all the way from South America out to the dateline.

And while we are seeing a kelvin wave propagating eastward:

depth-longitude section anomaly

it's not as strong as the one we were seeing at this time last year. And while a new new convective phase of the MJO is approaching the Pacific, it remains relatively weak and thus unlikely to be able to flip the regime to el Nino.


Actually, the most interesting feature of the SST anomaly right now is the setup in the northern Pacific. In contrast to last year, we have cooler temps in the Gulf of Alaska and off the western coast - and a strong warm anomaly in the central North PAcific. This supports the idea of a mean pattern with ridging in the midwest and troughiness on west and east coasts.

[CHRISTY]

so your thinking is we might have troughiness along the EASTCOAST!we will see cause there has been a very persistant ridge along the southeast so far this year might that change?

[James]

So x-y-no, with the Kelvin wave this year not being as deep as last year's one, does this mean that even though it may have reached further west it is not likely to be a hugely influential factor? Also, would the colder pool of anomalies this year be something that could...balance it out (if that's the right way to put it)?

[x-y-no]

So x-y-no, with the Kelvin wave this year not being as deep as last year's one, does this mean that even though it may have reached further west it is not likely to be a hugely influential factor? Also, would the colder pool of anomalies this year be something that could...balance it out (if that's the right way to put it)?

These equatorial kelvin waves propagate west to east. The current one can be seen as the submerged warm anomaly appearing between about 120w and 140w in the depth-longitude sections of anomalous equatorial ocean temperatures I linked to above. This is the same area where last year's wave surfaced (and you may recall a lot of discussion around this time last year about whether this would flip us into an el Nino) but this year's is weaker, and the surface layer is already cooler.

All this adds up to likely netral conditions, with some remaining chance of la Nina but very little chance of el Nino.

[x-y-no]

so your thinking is we might have troughiness along the EASTCOAST!we will see cause there has been a very persistant ridge along the southeast so far this year might that change?

East coast troughiness would be good news, since that would argue for more fish storms.

We'll see if it works out that way. Another possibility is that we get the ridge bridging, which would be bad news.

[terstorm1012]

Actually, the most interesting feature of the SST anomaly right now is the setup in the northern Pacific. In contrast to last year, we have cooler temps in the Gulf of Alaska and off the western coast - and a strong warm anomaly in the central North PAcific. This supports the idea of a mean pattern with ridging in the midwest and troughiness on west and east coasts.

Essentially, we should expect the "Ridge of Death" to set up over the Midwest this summer, as forecasted by a variety of public and private weather services?

AND in terms of 'canes, we should expect Gulf Screamers and Fish? This is what I'm reading from the discussion...

[x-y-no]

Actually, the most interesting feature of the SST anomaly right now is the setup in the northern Pacific. In contrast to last year, we have cooler temps in the Gulf of Alaska and off the western coast - and a strong warm anomaly in the central North PAcific. This supports the idea of a mean pattern with ridging in the midwest and troughiness on west and east coasts.

Essentially, we should expect the "Ridge of Death" to set up over the Midwest this summer, as forecasted by a variety of public and private weather services?

AND in terms of 'canes, we should expect Gulf Screamers and Fish? This is what I'm reading from the discussion...

Yeah, my point was that the north Pacific SSTs support this idea.

[CHRISTY]

Actually, the most interesting feature of the SST anomaly right now is the setup in the northern Pacific. In contrast to last year, we have cooler temps in the Gulf of Alaska and off the western coast - and a strong warm anomaly in the central North PAcific. This supports the idea of a mean pattern with ridging in the midwest and troughiness on west and east coasts.

Essentially, we should expect the "Ridge of Death" to set up over the Midwest this summer, as forecasted by a variety of public and private weather services?

AND in terms of 'canes, we should expect Gulf Screamers and Fish? This is what I'm reading from the discussion...

Yeah, my point was that the north Pacific SSTs support this idea.

so u had to pick one either ridging or troughness in 2006 what would be your pick...i pick ridging.i mean atlantic wise.