TC Monica #4: Fanni Beach (Darwin) Webcam available

[Jim Cantore]

Any damage reports in yet?

NONE SO FAR. BUT I GUESS IT'S BECAUSE IT MADE LANDFALL IN A VERY UNPOPULATED AND POOR AREA. THEREFORE, ANY DAMAGE SHOULD BE CONSIRABLE MINOR.

At least it didnt hit darwin, that would be worse then Tracy

[HURAKAN]

MONICA'S BEST MOMENTS!

[Rod Hagen]

Some reports are coming in.

You can listen to Darwin ABC Radio now on links for Real Audio and WM at http://abc.net.au/darwin/ They are currently running damage reports.

Some extracts from print versions of stories on ABC Darwin site:

__________________________________________

NT Police Commander evaluates the situation

Tuesday, 25 April 2006
Presenter: Julia Christensen


Several hundred people have sought accommodation at cyclone shelters around the Northern Territory.
Cyclone Monica made landfall overnight bringing destructive winds and heavy rain to Maningrida, Oenpelli and Jabiru. The cyclone continues to be a threat to Darwin and surrounding areas.

Northern Territory Police Commander Bert Hofer said that there have been reports of considerable damage to the areas of Maningrida, Oenpelli and Jabiru, but as yet there have been no reports of injury.

"Maningrida suffered some extensive damage to infrastructure and buildings in the early hours of the morning... one house was knocked off its stilts, there's extensive damage to roofs, moderate damage in general and the evacuation centre at the high school had its roof blown off, but there were no injuries to the populus," he said.

The power supply is currently out in the region, but emergency generators have been set up in Maningrida at the police station, the local store and the health clinic.

"The local (Maningrida) counter-disaster committee will meet at seven o'clock this morning to evaluate where to from here."

Oenpelli has also felt the effects of cyclone Monica, with local police reporting heavy rain and strong winds as at three o'clock this morning.

"At that time there were no reports of damage or injuries... We're awaiting further reports from Oenpelli."

_______________________

Cyclone Monica buffets Jabiru

Tuesday, 25 April 2006
Presenter: Julia Christensen


Cyclone Monica's path as released by the Bureau of Meteorology as at 5AM CST Tuesday 25 April 2006 (image courtesy of the Bureau of Meteorology).
Cyclone Monica travelled inland overnight crossing over Maningrida, Oenpelli and Jabiru - buffeting the township with winds of up to 100kmph and disrupting power and water supplies.

Sergeant Roger Ilett from Jabiru Police told ABC Darwin that Jabiru Police have managed to complete a preliminary check of the town and says that most damage has been caused by fallen trees.

"(There's been) a lot of tree damage, but fortunately they've fallen the right way, which is away from a lot of the houses and government buildings... a lot of trees are blocking off the roads at this stage."

Cyclone shelters were in operation and provided emergency accommodation to approximately 75 people, with most of these coming from the Jabiru area.

"One shelter at the Jabiru area school had approximately 45 people turn up there... everyone battened down and just listened to the storm as it went past them, but overall the volunteers down there have done an excellent job as (they have) up at the Jabiru Courthouse where there is approximately 30 people."

The information from more remote areas has been limited, but at present Sergeant Ilett says there has been no cause for concern for the safety of people in these areas.

"We certainly haven't received any phone calls from people requesting assistance, but we will endeavour to get hold of them very shortly."

At present the Jabiru Police have asked residents to remain cautious if venturing outside.

"At this stage we are wanting people to stay indoors at least until first light and also be reminded that some of the houses in Jabiru were built with asbestos, although the rain will settle the dust down but it is a concern that we're going to have to look at."


__________________________________


Cheers

Rod

[CHRISTY]

cyclone monica what a storm...

[Audrey2Katrina]

Maximum sustained wind = 51 Knots Maximum gust 80 Knots.

IF those are accurate, the area of maximum force winds must be extremely narrow. Isn't Maningrida about 18 mi. or so from the exactl landfall? Granted it's on the weaker side but still with a storm of this intensity they must wrap very close to the COC to drop down to only TS speeds less than 20 miles away. That said, I'm glad for those people that her radius of max winds wasn't any larger.

A2K

Actually, it's on the strong side of the storm. Southern hemisphere means that the worst quadrant is front left.

I'm well aware of the reverse coriolis effect between the hemispheres, but it would seem to me that the reverse of a worst case NE quadrant would be a SW quadrant, hence passing to the EAST of Maningrida would have been a worse scenario than a passage west. That said, I make no claims to know nearly enough about the southern hemisphere storms as I do about the hurricanes in our area.

A2K

[WindRunner]

You almost have it. Yes, the opposite spin changes the worst from the east to the west, but the winds will still be worse on the front end as this is the part where everything is spinning in the same direction as the storm is moving.

Easiest way to figure it out is to look at a picture of a storm, (choose any from the post above you for instance) and say it is moving north. Now trace the spinning with your mouse and when your mouse is moving north as well, that's where the spinning combines with forward movement to increase the wind speeds.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.ecocam.com.au/cameras/darhi.php

FANNIE BEACH WEBCAM SHOWS WEATHER GOING DOWNHILL AND ROUGH SEAS.

[Audrey2Katrina]

You almost have it. Yes, the opposite spin changes the worst from the east to the west, but the winds will still be worse on the front end as this is the part where everything is spinning in the same direction as the storm is moving.

Easiest way to figure it out is to look at a picture of a storm, (choose any from the post above you for instance) and say it is moving north. Now trace the spinning with your mouse and when your mouse is moving north as well, that's where the spinning combines with forward movement to increase the wind speeds.

I understand your point, Windrunner; but this puppy is moving west and south... I dunno... I've heard several suggest that Maringrida was lucky it hit on the side that it did... you may be right, and I'm reading something wrong into it; but thanks for the info.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

I'll be anxious to see all the ground-based data once this monster is over. Wonder how the folks at Darwin are faring just about now?

A2K

[Jim Cantore]

http://www.ecocam.com.au/cameras/darhi.php

FANNIE BEACH WEBCAM SHOWS WEATHER GOING DOWNHILL AND ROUGH SEAS.

Other then breezy weather it dont look bad at all

[HURAKAN]

Yep, it looks breezy, rainy, and rough seas. Not bad to get from an ex-monster!!!

[Brandon007]

any chance it will restrengthen if it makes it to the next gulf?(I don't know what that gulf is called)

[Rod Hagen]

any chance it will restrengthen if it makes it to the next gulf?(I don't know what that gulf is called)

Maybe, Brandon, if it makes it there with something left. The sea temps in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf (that's its name) were actually higher than in the Gulf of Carpentaria when I last looked a couple of days ago.

Probably depends on its track. The further north it tracks, the greater the chance that it will still have some organisation, and the more water it will pass over.

Its not unheard of for these cyclones to redevelop there and then cause some serious problems in Western Australia.

Might be close to non-existent by the time it reaches the Bonaparte gulf though, in which case there wouldn't be much to build on.

Cheers

Rod

[Rod Hagen]

I'm well aware of the reverse coriolis effect between the hemispheres, but it would seem to me that the reverse of a worst case NE quadrant would be a SW quadrant, hence passing to the EAST of Maningrida would have been a worse scenario than a passage west. That said, I make no claims to know nearly enough about the southern hemisphere storms as I do about the hurricanes in our area.

A2K

I think the quadrant issue is primarily related to the juxtaposition of land and sea as well as hemisphere.

With clockwise rotation hitting a northern shoreline (like Arnhem Land) the SE quadrant will be the one coming directly off the sea. Similarly with an anticlockwise rotation, hitting , say, the Louisiana shoreline, it will be the NE quadrant that comes off the sea.

Cheers

Rod

[CHRISTY]

[Rod Hagen]

BOM have releaed a new Bulletin indicating that they expect Monica to re-intensify over the Bonaparte Gulf / Timor Sea:

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY



TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 70
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST [9:30 am WST] Tuesday 25 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between
POINT STUART and the NT/WA BORDER, including DARWIN and the southern TIWI
ISLANDS. A CYCLONE WARNING is also current for inland communities in the
DARWIN-DALY district including BATCHELOR, ADELAIDE RIVER and DALY RIVER.

A CYCLONE WATCH is current between the NT/WA BORDER and KALUMBURU in Western
Australia.

The CYCLONE WARNING between OENPELLI and POINT STUART has been cancelled.

At 10 am CST [8:30 am WST] TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 1 was located over
land about 60 kilometres east southeast of DARWIN and 65 kilometres northeast of
BATCHELOR, and is moving west at 25 kilometres per hour. The cyclone is expected
to continue moving west into the Timor Sea later this afternoon or evening.
Monica is expected to re-intensify over water overnight and move southwest
towards the north Kimberley coast during Wednesday.

GALES with gusts to 90 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced
within 50 kilometres of the centre. There is a possibility of GALES occurring
over the northwestern DARWIN-DALY district and the southern TIWI ISLANDS this
afternoon or evening. GALES may extend southwards along the coast to the NT/WA
BORDER overnight or on Wednesday morning if the cyclone takes a more southerly
track.

GALES may extend further west to KALUMBURU in Western Australia during Wednesday
afternoon or evening. There is a possibility of DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to
150 kilometres per hour developing between KALUMBURU and the NT/WA BORDER late
on Wednesday or early Thursday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas across the northwestern Top End today, possibly extending to the
northern Kimberley during Wednesday or Thursday.

Details of TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 10 am CST [8:30 am WST]:
. Centre located near...... 12.6 degrees South 131.4 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 25 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 90 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 1
. Central pressure......... 990 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between POINT STUART and the NT/WA
BORDER, including DARWIN, the southern TIWI ISLANDS, BATCHELOR, ADELAIDE RIVER
AND DALY RIVER.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to KALUMBURU in Western Australia.

The next advice will be issued at 2 pm CST [12:30 pm WST].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

______________

Might not have heard the last of her yet!

Cheers

Rod

[Squeako da Magnifico]

Looks like Monica is doing a Ingrid and Steve affecting 3 states or territory's as a tropical cyclone!!!

[Scorpion]

Hey guys I have still yet to wake up from that apparent Monica dream. I honestly cannot believe what we have seen in the past 2 days. Seeing T 8.0 from official and unofficial sources for 9 hours blows my mind. I have no doubt at all that Monica was the strongest cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere, and I would have to say that her minimum central pressure and maximum winds were close if not over world records. Even if the CIMSS estimates were overdone, to have 8.0 for 9 hours is a good indication of extreme intensity. No other storm has ever registered numbers like that. They estimated 195 mph sustained with 868 mb pressure. Her satellite appearance yesterday afternoon was almost unreal. Nevertheless, considering all of these factors and the fact that ambient pressures were slightly lower than normal in the area, I am going to put the following estimates for Monica.

Peak winds... 190 mph sustained (I am going to allow at least 5 kts overexaggeration by CIMSS, but say 190 because it held numbers at the top of the scale for an incredible 9 hours, and the fact that the JTWC usually slightly underestimate winds of intense cyclones.)

Minimum Central Pressure: 869 mb (This is the hardest estimate of them all. It is very tough to go out on a limb without accurate measurements ad say that her pressure was a world record, but I think there is a strong case to be made. The Navy at 1800 UTC yesterday estimated 155 kts and 879 mb, and also at 0000 UTC. Between those periods, Monica went through a quick burst of intensification, as noted by the remarkable satellite appearance and improvement of the CDO. Pressure responds very sensitively to changes in eyewall and CDO symmetry and overall appearance, and it is clear that between 1800 UTC and 0000 UTC, Monica showed this effect. So, coupled with the fact that CIMSS estimated under 870 mb for nearly 11 hours, it is hard to say that all of those estimates were too high. Therefore, I believe Monica probably did break the world record for pressure, and came close to tying the world record for sustained winds.)

Who are you quoting?

[JTD]

Hey guys I have still yet to wake up from that apparent Monica dream. I honestly cannot believe what we have seen in the past 2 days. Seeing T 8.0 from official and unofficial sources for 9 hours blows my mind. I have no doubt at all that Monica was the strongest cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere, and I would have to say that her minimum central pressure and maximum winds were close if not over world records. Even if the CIMSS estimates were overdone, to have 8.0 for 9 hours is a good indication of extreme intensity. No other storm has ever registered numbers like that. They estimated 195 mph sustained with 868 mb pressure. Her satellite appearance yesterday afternoon was almost unreal. Nevertheless, considering all of these factors and the fact that ambient pressures were slightly lower than normal in the area, I am going to put the following estimates for Monica.

Peak winds... 190 mph sustained (I am going to allow at least 5 kts overexaggeration by CIMSS, but say 190 because it held numbers at the top of the scale for an incredible 9 hours, and the fact that the JTWC usually slightly underestimate winds of intense cyclones.)

Minimum Central Pressure: 869 mb (This is the hardest estimate of them all. It is very tough to go out on a limb without accurate measurements ad say that her pressure was a world record, but I think there is a strong case to be made. The Navy at 1800 UTC yesterday estimated 155 kts and 879 mb, and also at 0000 UTC. Between those periods, Monica went through a quick burst of intensification, as noted by the remarkable satellite appearance and improvement of the CDO. Pressure responds very sensitively to changes in eyewall and CDO symmetry and overall appearance, and it is clear that between 1800 UTC and 0000 UTC, Monica showed this effect. So, coupled with the fact that CIMSS estimated under 870 mb for nearly 11 hours, it is hard to say that all of those estimates were too high. Therefore, I believe Monica probably did break the world record for pressure, and came close to tying the world record for sustained winds.)

Hi Christy. What website did you get that from? It sounds really fascinating and I'd like to visit the site too.

[JonathanBelles]

90 kph=145 mph? am i right?