Tropical Cyclone Monica Discussion Thread #1
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=83439
Tropical Cyclone Monica Discussion Thread #2
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=83662
Tropical Cyclone Monica Discussion Thread #3
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=83689
Tropical Cyclone Monica Discussion Thread #4
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=83707
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
40:2:1:24:12S131E999:11:00
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 0700 UTC 25 APRIL 2006
PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA
SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Low 998 hPa centred within 20 nautical miles of 12.3 S
130.7 E moving WESTNORTHWEST at 7 knots. The low may develop into a tropical
cyclone in the next 12-24 hours.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre
FORECAST
Clockwise winds 20/25 knots expected to increase to 30/40 knots within 12-24
hours. Rough to very rough seas and rising swell.
1800 UTC 25 Apr: centre within 60 nautical miles of 12.5 S 129.3 E.
994 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre.
0600 UTC 26 Apr: centre within 85 nautical miles of 13.2 S 128.3 E.
988 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre.
REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
_____________________________________________________________
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 73
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 pm CST Tuesday 25 April 2006
A CYCLONE WARNING is current between the DALY RIVER MOUTH and KALUMBURU in
Western Australia.
At 7 pm CST [5:30 pm WST] a TROPICAL LOW [EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica] was
located over the Timor sea about 40 kilometres west northwest of DARWIN and 85
kilometres southeast of CAPE FOURCROY, and has recently been moving west at 6
kilometres per hour. The low is expected to re-intensify into a tropical cyclone
during Wednesday and to start moving southwest at a slightly faster speed
towards the north Kimberley coast.
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between the
NT/WA border and KALUMBURU late on Wednesday. However if the cyclone moves in a
more southerly direction, GALES may develop between the DALY RIVER MOUTH and the
NT/WA border late on Wednesday.
There is a possibility of DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per
hour developing between KALUMBURU and the NT/WA BORDER early Thursday.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas across the TOP END and extending to the northern Kimberley during
Wednesday or Thursday.
Details of EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 7 pm CST [5:30 pm WST]:
. Centre located near...... 12.3 degrees South 130.6 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 40 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 6 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals
REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between DALY RIVER MOUTH and
KALUMBURU in Western Australia.
The next advice will be issued at 11 pm CST [9:30 pm WST].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
SE Indian Ocean: Ex-TC Monica 5: Last advisory written
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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HURAKAN
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SE Indian Ocean: Ex-TC Monica 5: Last advisory written
Last edited by HURAKAN on Wed Apr 26, 2006 7:25 am, edited 3 times in total.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Monica's not done yet
From: AAP
By Jade Bilowol
April 25, 2006
CYCLONE Monica has weakened to a tropical low over the Northern Territory, but is forecast to move back to sea and intensify again before menacing Western Australia.
Monica was packing winds of up to 350km/h near its core when it last night touched down at Maningrida, in the territory's far north.
However, the category five cyclone significantly weakened once it made landfall and travelled further south and inland than predicted, after fears it would be one of the severest storms to hit Australia.
While the clean-up in Maningrida has started, Darwin emerged relatively unscathed today after preparing for the worst.
Duty forecaster Jenny Farlow said the city received rain and winds of up to 60km/h as the cyclone weakened from a category one to a tropical low about 1pm (CST).
"Squally winds are currently being experienced over the northwestern Darwin-Daly district and the southern Tiwi Islands," Ms Farlow said.
"There's no damage that I'm aware of in Darwin ... for Darwin you could say that (it was a non-event) but not for other parts such as Maningrida, Jabiru and Milingimbi.
"Other parts of the Top End have experienced significantly damaging wind gusts."
A police spokeswoman warned high and low voltage powerlines were down in Maningrida, urging residents to take caution.
Heavy rain was also expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low-lying areas across the Top End and extend to the northern Kimberley in WA tomorrow or Thursday.
Ms Farlow said the tropical low, located about 13 kilometres north-north-east of Darwin, would track west and reach the Timor Sea before intensifying and possibly hitting Western Australia.
"Once they go over the warmer waters this fuels them – they reintensify," Ms Farlow said.
"The steering is in that south-west direction to Western Australia – that top bit there will be affected."
She said Monica had the potential to intensify beyond a category two cyclone before potentially striking the WA coast.
"A cyclone watch is current between the Daly Mouth River right through to the Kimberley," Ms Farlow said.
Destructive winds with gusts of up to 150km/h could develop between Kalumburu and the NT/WA border early on Thursday, the bureau said.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,18926440-28477,00.html
From: AAP
By Jade Bilowol
April 25, 2006
CYCLONE Monica has weakened to a tropical low over the Northern Territory, but is forecast to move back to sea and intensify again before menacing Western Australia.
Monica was packing winds of up to 350km/h near its core when it last night touched down at Maningrida, in the territory's far north.
However, the category five cyclone significantly weakened once it made landfall and travelled further south and inland than predicted, after fears it would be one of the severest storms to hit Australia.
While the clean-up in Maningrida has started, Darwin emerged relatively unscathed today after preparing for the worst.
Duty forecaster Jenny Farlow said the city received rain and winds of up to 60km/h as the cyclone weakened from a category one to a tropical low about 1pm (CST).
"Squally winds are currently being experienced over the northwestern Darwin-Daly district and the southern Tiwi Islands," Ms Farlow said.
"There's no damage that I'm aware of in Darwin ... for Darwin you could say that (it was a non-event) but not for other parts such as Maningrida, Jabiru and Milingimbi.
"Other parts of the Top End have experienced significantly damaging wind gusts."
A police spokeswoman warned high and low voltage powerlines were down in Maningrida, urging residents to take caution.
Heavy rain was also expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low-lying areas across the Top End and extend to the northern Kimberley in WA tomorrow or Thursday.
Ms Farlow said the tropical low, located about 13 kilometres north-north-east of Darwin, would track west and reach the Timor Sea before intensifying and possibly hitting Western Australia.
"Once they go over the warmer waters this fuels them – they reintensify," Ms Farlow said.
"The steering is in that south-west direction to Western Australia – that top bit there will be affected."
She said Monica had the potential to intensify beyond a category two cyclone before potentially striking the WA coast.
"A cyclone watch is current between the Daly Mouth River right through to the Kimberley," Ms Farlow said.
Destructive winds with gusts of up to 150km/h could develop between Kalumburu and the NT/WA border early on Thursday, the bureau said.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,18926440-28477,00.html
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Rod Hagen
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 237
- Joined: Fri Sep 23, 2005 6:22 am
- Location: Lives in Melbourne, works in N Queensland
From http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/20 ... 623602.htm
Cameraman describes cyclone damage
An ABC cameraman has described the scene at the community of Maningrida as devastating.
Cyclone Monica hit the Arnhem Land coast just off the community last night, and with the power cut and the phones down he was one of the first outsiders to see the damage.
ABC cameraman Paddy Kobilka flew into Maningrida today.
He says pockets of the community suffered serious damage in the cyclone.
"I saw some families that were doing it pretty hard with roofs all around them and a couple of houses I saw were devastated," he said.
The cyclone took the roof off the community school and brought down several power poles.
Mr Kobilka says people were in good spirits today although they told him the winds were terrifying.
Power and Water says it will start restoring power in Maningrida tomorrow.
The water supply has been restored but the community's sewer system is still not working.
Chief Minister Clare Martin will visit Maningrida tomorrow.
___________________________
Cheers
Rod
Cameraman describes cyclone damage
An ABC cameraman has described the scene at the community of Maningrida as devastating.
Cyclone Monica hit the Arnhem Land coast just off the community last night, and with the power cut and the phones down he was one of the first outsiders to see the damage.
ABC cameraman Paddy Kobilka flew into Maningrida today.
He says pockets of the community suffered serious damage in the cyclone.
"I saw some families that were doing it pretty hard with roofs all around them and a couple of houses I saw were devastated," he said.
The cyclone took the roof off the community school and brought down several power poles.
Mr Kobilka says people were in good spirits today although they told him the winds were terrifying.
Power and Water says it will start restoring power in Maningrida tomorrow.
The water supply has been restored but the community's sewer system is still not working.
Chief Minister Clare Martin will visit Maningrida tomorrow.
___________________________
Cheers
Rod
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Rod Hagen
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 237
- Joined: Fri Sep 23, 2005 6:22 am
- Location: Lives in Melbourne, works in N Queensland
from http://abc.net.au/news/items/200604/1623553.htm?nt
Goulburn Island residents heading home after cyclone Monica
Tuesday, 25 April 2006. 19:09 (AEDT)
Goulburn Island residents are itching to return home, now the threat to their community from cyclone Monica has passed.
The community had been moved to a caravan park at Pine Creek, 220 kilometres south of Darwin.
The 337 people were evacuated yesterday, as then category 5 cyclone Monica headed straight towards the island, north-east of Darwin.
It is the first time many of them have ever been to the mainland.
Allen Gebadi says it has been all right.
"The Army boys have been looking after us," he said.
The Army is not sure when the island's dirt airstrip will be dry enough for people to return.
But community leader Bung Kalamunda is already planning something special for the eight people who chose to stay behind.
"They were brave to stay and we are thinking of having a little ceremony, a little thanking," he said.
He says there will be speeches and plenty of dancing.
Meanwhile, Northern Territory Chief Minister Clare Martin says she will travel to west Farnham Land communities tomorrow to assess any damage from cyclone Monica.
Ms Martin says she will visit communities including Oenpelli and Maningrida as well as the town of Jabiru.
"Much of the damage is to public housing and that is something that we will be looking at how to repair as quickly as possible something like the school in Maningrida," she said.
"The school was the shelter, it lost either part of its roof or a substantial section of its roof."
The Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Environment says the Farnham Highway has been reopened.
Several trees were blocking the highway between the Kakadu park gates and Jabiru earlier today.
A spokesman for the Department says there is now some water over the Farnham highway at Wildman River.
He says the road is still passable at this stage although he is advising against driving on the road at night.
The Education Department says all schools in Darwin and Palmerston will open tomorrow.
Jabiru Area School will be closed for the day until fallen trees are clear.
Acting deputy chief executive of the Education Department John Dove says it has been difficult to communicate with remote Indigenous schools, but most should be open tomorrow.
Mr Dove says Maningrida's roof damage could keep the school shut for some time, and Milingimbi will be closed tomorrow.
"Milingimbi, the school is staff are busy cleaning up there, but it'll probably take till Thursday til they can get the school clean enough to open it up," he said.
"As best as we can communicate the other schools across the rest of the Top End are fine."
The Milkwood Steiner School in the Darwin suburb of Nightcliff will open but it has asked as many students as possible to stay home, to allow teachers to unpack classrooms.
Telstra says it might be able to resume some phone services in communities affected by Monica tomorrow.
Telstra Countrywide manager Mark Sweet says cyclone Monica had a significant impact on phone services in the north-west Farnham Land region.
He says about 1,000 phone lines are out in the communities of Oenpelli, Maningrida, Milingimbi and Gapuwiyak.
But he says the damage from Monica could have been worse.
"It appears at this point in time that it's alignment issues rather than bent powers and structures like that," he said.
"So if it is alignment the restoration process will be much quicker than having to straighten steel and replace things and the like."
________________________
An image from Jabiru
Cheers
Rod
Goulburn Island residents heading home after cyclone Monica
Tuesday, 25 April 2006. 19:09 (AEDT)
Goulburn Island residents are itching to return home, now the threat to their community from cyclone Monica has passed.
The community had been moved to a caravan park at Pine Creek, 220 kilometres south of Darwin.
The 337 people were evacuated yesterday, as then category 5 cyclone Monica headed straight towards the island, north-east of Darwin.
It is the first time many of them have ever been to the mainland.
Allen Gebadi says it has been all right.
"The Army boys have been looking after us," he said.
The Army is not sure when the island's dirt airstrip will be dry enough for people to return.
But community leader Bung Kalamunda is already planning something special for the eight people who chose to stay behind.
"They were brave to stay and we are thinking of having a little ceremony, a little thanking," he said.
He says there will be speeches and plenty of dancing.
Meanwhile, Northern Territory Chief Minister Clare Martin says she will travel to west Farnham Land communities tomorrow to assess any damage from cyclone Monica.
Ms Martin says she will visit communities including Oenpelli and Maningrida as well as the town of Jabiru.
"Much of the damage is to public housing and that is something that we will be looking at how to repair as quickly as possible something like the school in Maningrida," she said.
"The school was the shelter, it lost either part of its roof or a substantial section of its roof."
The Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Environment says the Farnham Highway has been reopened.
Several trees were blocking the highway between the Kakadu park gates and Jabiru earlier today.
A spokesman for the Department says there is now some water over the Farnham highway at Wildman River.
He says the road is still passable at this stage although he is advising against driving on the road at night.
The Education Department says all schools in Darwin and Palmerston will open tomorrow.
Jabiru Area School will be closed for the day until fallen trees are clear.
Acting deputy chief executive of the Education Department John Dove says it has been difficult to communicate with remote Indigenous schools, but most should be open tomorrow.
Mr Dove says Maningrida's roof damage could keep the school shut for some time, and Milingimbi will be closed tomorrow.
"Milingimbi, the school is staff are busy cleaning up there, but it'll probably take till Thursday til they can get the school clean enough to open it up," he said.
"As best as we can communicate the other schools across the rest of the Top End are fine."
The Milkwood Steiner School in the Darwin suburb of Nightcliff will open but it has asked as many students as possible to stay home, to allow teachers to unpack classrooms.
Telstra says it might be able to resume some phone services in communities affected by Monica tomorrow.
Telstra Countrywide manager Mark Sweet says cyclone Monica had a significant impact on phone services in the north-west Farnham Land region.
He says about 1,000 phone lines are out in the communities of Oenpelli, Maningrida, Milingimbi and Gapuwiyak.
But he says the damage from Monica could have been worse.
"It appears at this point in time that it's alignment issues rather than bent powers and structures like that," he said.
"So if it is alignment the restoration process will be much quicker than having to straighten steel and replace things and the like."
________________________
An image from Jabiru
Cheers
Rod
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SouthFloridawx
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
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- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 74
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 12:02 am CST [10:32 pm WST] Wednesday 26 April 2006
A CYCLONE WARNING is current between the DALY RIVER MOUTH and KALUMBURU in
Western Australia.
At 10 pm CST [8:30 pm WST] a TROPICAL LOW [EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica] was
located over the Timor sea about 45 kilometres west northwest of DARWIN and 80
kilometres southeast of CAPE FOURCROY, and has recently been moving slowly west.
The low is expected to re-intensify into a tropical cyclone during Wednesday and
adopt a southwest track at a slightly faster speed towards the north Kimberley
coast.
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between the
NT/WA border and KALUMBURU late on Wednesday. However if the cyclone moves in a
more southerly direction, GALES may develop between the DALY RIVER MOUTH and the
NT/WA border late on Wednesday.
There is a possibility of DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per
hour developing between KALUMBURU and the NT/WA BORDER early Thursday.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas across the TOP END and extending to the northern Kimberley during
Wednesday or Thursday.
Details of EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 10 pm CST [8:30 pm WST]:
. Centre located near...... 12.3 degrees South 130.5 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 40 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... slowly towards the west
. Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals
REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between DALY RIVER MOUTH and
KALUMBURU in Western Australia.
The next advice will be issued at 2 am CST [12:30 am WST] Wednesday.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
MEDIA: the following message is only for broadcast in Western Australia
The WA State Emergency Service advises the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: Current for coastal and island communities between Kalumburu and the
NT/WA Border, including Kalumburu, Wyndham, and Oombulgurru.
For further information contact the WA State Emergency Service.
NOTHING NEW SO FAR!
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 74
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 12:02 am CST [10:32 pm WST] Wednesday 26 April 2006
A CYCLONE WARNING is current between the DALY RIVER MOUTH and KALUMBURU in
Western Australia.
At 10 pm CST [8:30 pm WST] a TROPICAL LOW [EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica] was
located over the Timor sea about 45 kilometres west northwest of DARWIN and 80
kilometres southeast of CAPE FOURCROY, and has recently been moving slowly west.
The low is expected to re-intensify into a tropical cyclone during Wednesday and
adopt a southwest track at a slightly faster speed towards the north Kimberley
coast.
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between the
NT/WA border and KALUMBURU late on Wednesday. However if the cyclone moves in a
more southerly direction, GALES may develop between the DALY RIVER MOUTH and the
NT/WA border late on Wednesday.
There is a possibility of DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per
hour developing between KALUMBURU and the NT/WA BORDER early Thursday.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas across the TOP END and extending to the northern Kimberley during
Wednesday or Thursday.
Details of EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 10 pm CST [8:30 pm WST]:
. Centre located near...... 12.3 degrees South 130.5 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 40 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... slowly towards the west
. Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals
REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between DALY RIVER MOUTH and
KALUMBURU in Western Australia.
The next advice will be issued at 2 am CST [12:30 am WST] Wednesday.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
MEDIA: the following message is only for broadcast in Western Australia
The WA State Emergency Service advises the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: Current for coastal and island communities between Kalumburu and the
NT/WA Border, including Kalumburu, Wyndham, and Oombulgurru.
For further information contact the WA State Emergency Service.
NOTHING NEW SO FAR!
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Brandon007
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 84
- Joined: Sat Mar 04, 2006 2:34 pm
- Location: Meridian, MS
Not to make a serious event a contest, but now that the assessment is in I think Tracy stays as number one. If the computer estimates we were seeing were true I would say the whole town would have been wiped flat and most killed. Since we are hearing of portions of buildings still standing we can assume the lowest 870 pressures were false. BOM probably had it right around 900 millibars - 170 mph category 5 with gusts to 195mph is my guess from the damage. Maybe as low as 155 sustained to 180 at landfall.
I'm curious about the Wessels where the full intensifying eye crossed over as it passed there.
I think we saw a darned good category 5 but no Tracy.
Maybe when things settle we can see if Maningrida Airport caught a pressure reading.
Thought it would have redeveloped over Bonaparte Sea faster.
I'm curious about the Wessels where the full intensifying eye crossed over as it passed there.
I think we saw a darned good category 5 but no Tracy.
Maybe when things settle we can see if Maningrida Airport caught a pressure reading.
Thought it would have redeveloped over Bonaparte Sea faster.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
This is what I believe.
1# That the pressure bottom out around 890 to 895 millibars...Much Rita like kind of system.
2# The wind field was very compact like Wilma. Remember it made landfall about 14 miles west of the city. So the worst damage most likely did not hit anything.
I say it toped out about 175 to 180 mph..With a landfall around 170 mph. Maybe no more then cat3 115 to 120 mph winds just on the western parts of the city...Lowering to around 80 to 100 at 20 to 25 nmi out.
1# That the pressure bottom out around 890 to 895 millibars...Much Rita like kind of system.
2# The wind field was very compact like Wilma. Remember it made landfall about 14 miles west of the city. So the worst damage most likely did not hit anything.
I say it toped out about 175 to 180 mph..With a landfall around 170 mph. Maybe no more then cat3 115 to 120 mph winds just on the western parts of the city...Lowering to around 80 to 100 at 20 to 25 nmi out.
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We'll never know for sure but I wouldn't be suprised if the 870ish mb estimites were correct. From looking at MIMIC, Monica had the largest and most sustained core I can remember.
Monica: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... npage.html
Archives: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... chive.html
At least from this microwave imagery, Monica looked more intense than any of the Atlantic or Pacific Cat 5s in the last two years.
Monica: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... npage.html
Archives: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... chive.html
At least from this microwave imagery, Monica looked more intense than any of the Atlantic or Pacific Cat 5s in the last two years.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
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- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Down another 3hPa.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 75
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 am CST [12:30 am WST] Wednesday 26 April 2006
A CYCLONE WARNING is current between the DALY RIVER MOUTH and KALUMBURU in
Western Australia.
At 1 am CST [11:30 pm WST] a TROPICAL LOW [EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica] was
located over the Timor sea about 65 kilometres west of DARWIN and 75 kilometres
south southeast of CAPE FOURCROY, and was moving west southwest at 6 kilometres
per hour. The low is expected to re-intensify into a tropical cyclone during
Wednesday and adopt a southwest track towards the north Kimberley coast.
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between the
NT/WA border and KALUMBURU late on Wednesday. However if the cyclone moves in a
more southerly direction, GALES may develop between the DALY RIVER MOUTH and the
NT/WA border late on Wednesday.
There is a possibility of DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per
hour developing between KALUMBURU and the NT/WA BORDER early Thursday.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas across the TOP END and extending to the northern Kimberley during
Wednesday or Thursday.
Details of EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 1 am CST [11:30 pm WST]:
. Centre located near...... 12.4 degrees South 130.3 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 40 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 6 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals
REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between DALY RIVER MOUTH and
KALUMBURU in Western Australia.
The next advice will be issued at 5 am CST [3:30 am WST].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 75
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 am CST [12:30 am WST] Wednesday 26 April 2006
A CYCLONE WARNING is current between the DALY RIVER MOUTH and KALUMBURU in
Western Australia.
At 1 am CST [11:30 pm WST] a TROPICAL LOW [EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica] was
located over the Timor sea about 65 kilometres west of DARWIN and 75 kilometres
south southeast of CAPE FOURCROY, and was moving west southwest at 6 kilometres
per hour. The low is expected to re-intensify into a tropical cyclone during
Wednesday and adopt a southwest track towards the north Kimberley coast.
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between the
NT/WA border and KALUMBURU late on Wednesday. However if the cyclone moves in a
more southerly direction, GALES may develop between the DALY RIVER MOUTH and the
NT/WA border late on Wednesday.
There is a possibility of DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per
hour developing between KALUMBURU and the NT/WA BORDER early Thursday.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas across the TOP END and extending to the northern Kimberley during
Wednesday or Thursday.
Details of EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 1 am CST [11:30 pm WST]:
. Centre located near...... 12.4 degrees South 130.3 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 40 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 6 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals
REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between DALY RIVER MOUTH and
KALUMBURU in Western Australia.
The next advice will be issued at 5 am CST [3:30 am WST].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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HurricaneHunter914
- Category 5
- Posts: 4439
- Age: 31
- Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
- Location: College Station, TX
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:Definitly getting organized. You think she has enough time to get back to severe cyclone status?
It's moving SSW, so it remains pretty close to land. The latest advisory from BoM indicates that it could go back to cat. 1 in 12 to 24 hors, but their map shows the system no developing and almost over land all the time. I don't think it will be back to the Mónica we remember. It will remain a ghost of what once was.
http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b300/ ... NICA14.png
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HurricaneHunter914
- Category 5
- Posts: 4439
- Age: 31
- Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
- Location: College Station, TX
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 76
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST [3:30 am WST] Wednesday 26 April 2006
A CYCLONE WARNING is current between the DALY RIVER MOUTH and KALUMBURU in
Western Australia.
At 4 am CST [2:30 am WST] a TROPICAL LOW [EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica] was
located over the Timor sea about 80 kilometres west southwest of DARWIN and 15
kilometres northwest of DUNDEE BEACH, and was moving south southwest at 10
kilometres per hour. The low is expected to continue moving on a south
southwestward track along the coast. On that track it would be unlikely to
redevelop into a cyclone.
However, if the low takes a more southwesterly track into the Joseph Bonaparte
Gulf then it may re-intensify into a tropical cyclone, bringing GALES with gusts
to 110 kilometres per hour to the coast between the DALY RIVER MOUTH and the
NT/WA BORDER during today, extending west along the coast to KALUMBURU late
today or early Thursday morning.
There is a possibility of DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per
hour developing between KALUMBURU and the NT/WA BORDER during Thursday.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas across the TOP END and extending to the north Kimberley during
Wednesday or Thursday.
Details of EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 4 am CST [2:30 am WST]:
. Centre located near...... 12.7 degrees South 130.2 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 40 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 10 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals
REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is current between DALY RIVER MOUTH and KALUMBURU
in Western Australia.
The next advice will be issued at 8 am CST [6:30 am WST].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 76
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST [3:30 am WST] Wednesday 26 April 2006
A CYCLONE WARNING is current between the DALY RIVER MOUTH and KALUMBURU in
Western Australia.
At 4 am CST [2:30 am WST] a TROPICAL LOW [EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica] was
located over the Timor sea about 80 kilometres west southwest of DARWIN and 15
kilometres northwest of DUNDEE BEACH, and was moving south southwest at 10
kilometres per hour. The low is expected to continue moving on a south
southwestward track along the coast. On that track it would be unlikely to
redevelop into a cyclone.
However, if the low takes a more southwesterly track into the Joseph Bonaparte
Gulf then it may re-intensify into a tropical cyclone, bringing GALES with gusts
to 110 kilometres per hour to the coast between the DALY RIVER MOUTH and the
NT/WA BORDER during today, extending west along the coast to KALUMBURU late
today or early Thursday morning.
There is a possibility of DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per
hour developing between KALUMBURU and the NT/WA BORDER during Thursday.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas across the TOP END and extending to the north Kimberley during
Wednesday or Thursday.
Details of EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 4 am CST [2:30 am WST]:
. Centre located near...... 12.7 degrees South 130.2 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 40 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 10 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals
REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is current between DALY RIVER MOUTH and KALUMBURU
in Western Australia.
The next advice will be issued at 8 am CST [6:30 am WST].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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