My Outlook: La Nina is DONE ..How warm will SST's Get ?

[Ivan14]

Sorry for the misunderstanding I thought you said there will be a El Nino this year. I am still learning about El Nino and La Nina so please excuse my lack of knowledge.

[Jim Hughes]

Sorry for the misunderstanding I thought you said there will be a El Nino this year. I am still learning about El Nino and La Nina so please excuse my lack of knowledge.

No problem Ivan14. Sorry if I came across the wrong way. I did not mean to. I just wanted to make sure that nobody could confuse this post with me forecasting a developing El Nino. A forecast could be on the horizon though. I just want to dig a little deeper into some possible relationships.



Jim

[Ivan14]

Jim has there ever been an El Nino year that has sprung up right after a La Nina year? I am very curious if there ever was one.

[drezee]

Jim has there ever been an El Nino year that has sprung up right after a La Nina year? I am very curious if there ever was one.

Last 30 years

Winter WRCC CDC CPC MEI Consensus
1973-74 C+ C C+ C+ Strong La Niña
1974-75 C C- C- Weak La Niña
1975-76 C+ C C+ C Strong La Niña
1976-77 W W-
1977-78 W+ W- W- El Niño
1978-79
1979-80 W- W-
1980-81
1981-82
1982-83 W+ W W+ W+ Strong El Niño
1983-84 C-
1984-85 C- C-
1985-86
1986-87 W W
1987-88 W+ W- W W- El Niño
1988-89 C+ C- C+ C Strong La Niña
1989-90
1990-91 W+
1991-92 W W W+ W+ Strong El Niño
1992-93 W W+ W- El Niño
1993-94 W+ W
1994-95 W+ W W- El Niño
1995-96 C- C-
1996-97
1997-98 W+ W W+ W+ Strong El Niño
1998-99 C+ C C- La Niña
1999-00 C C
2000-01 C C C- C- La Niña
2001-02
2002-03 W W W W El Niño
2003-04
2004-05 C C C C- La Niña

[Ivan14]

Thanks drezee that answers my question.

[Jim Hughes]

Jim has there ever been an El Nino year that has sprung up right after a La Nina year? I am very curious if there ever was one.

Yes there has been but there is usually a transition period, regardless of which way the ENSO phase is going, of approximately 4-6 months , when one considers the SST's alone. The SOI average can swing strongly the other way in much less time.

The most recent transition , between two fairly strong phases, occurred in the late spring of 1998. We went from El Nino to La Nina fairly quickly.



Jim

[Ivan14]

Thanks Jim

[benny]

i think we will have neutral conditions until very late this year...so i think EL NINO's affect will probably be felt in 2007.

The effect from either ENSO phase is somewhat more dominant during the winter. The last two years should have shown people this. Even without a full blown one present.

NOAA, and some others, have been getting soemwhat tricked the past couple of years by the timing of the QBO changes. It has been coming later and away from winter.

This had pushed the transition period back slightly and the ENSO trends in 2004 & 05 came into place later.

The Atlantic season simmered down in late 04...maybe weak EL Nino related and the exact opposite occurred last year.

I bet that Klotzbach & Gray WILL NOT raise their numbers any more and they might even lower the hurricane or major totals by one or so. If it develops of course.



Jim

What paper has ever suggested or proved that the QBO modulates El Nino frequency? I am a little skeptical of this but if there is a reference out there I would change my opinions. How would the theoretical modification work?

[Jim Hughes]

i think we will have neutral conditions until very late this year...so i think EL NINO's affect will probably be felt in 2007.

The effect from either ENSO phase is somewhat more dominant during the winter. The last two years should have shown people this. Even without a full blown one present.

NOAA, and some others, have been getting soemwhat tricked the past couple of years by the timing of the QBO changes. It has been coming later and away from winter.

This had pushed the transition period back slightly and the ENSO trends in 2004 & 05 came into place later.

The Atlantic season simmered down in late 04...maybe weak EL Nino related and the exact opposite occurred last year.

I bet that Klotzbach & Gray WILL NOT raise their numbers any more and they might even lower the hurricane or major totals by one or so. If it develops of course.



Jim

What paper has ever suggested or proved that the QBO modulates El Nino frequency? I am a little skeptical of this but if there is a reference out there I would change my opinions. How would the theoretical modification work?

I never said they modulated them totally. If you monitor the SOI data you can see waxes and wanes in the 30 & 90 day averages around the time of QBO changes. Even the QBO phase peak for that matter.

There are many seasonal changes that occur in the atmosphere. Things like the MJO have an intensification amplitude cycle during certain times of the year compared to other times. I believe the strength of the QBO can effect things like this depending upon certain variabes.

Certain QBO phase changes tend to occur with warmings in the stratosphere during the wintertime This is just another example of the possible forcing of the QBO upon the ENSO or any teleconnection for that matter.



Jim