Bay of Bengal: VSCS Mala - Possible catastrophe for Myanmar

[HURAKAN]

26/2030 UTC 12.2N 89.9E T3.5/3.5 MALA -- Bay of Bengal



MALA IS GETTING MEANER!!!

[Derecho]

There's still quite a bit of easterly shear over it, particularly the southern half of the storm.

NIO is also weird in that it has a bimodal season....brief peaks in the Spring and Fall, between the Northeast and Southwest Monsoons...when the shear slacks off. With such narrow windows if the shear is too strong during the usual windows it can really kill a season, so the NIO has really erratic variations in numbers of storms, and during the actual NE and SW monsoons there are basically no storms at all.

It's another place where SSTs play no role in when the season occurs; it's always warm enough for tropical cyclones..it's shear that controls everything.

I helped design this historical naval wargame once set around India and had to come up with a table to roll on to see if a storm sank your ships if they were at sea, so I had to really immerse myself in this stuff, but it was years ago.

[HURAKAN]

There's still quite a bit of easterly shear over it, particularly the southern half of the storm.

NIO is also weird in that it has a bimodal season....brief peaks in the Spring and Fall, between the Northeast and Southwest Monsoons...when the shear slacks off. With such narrow windows if the shear is too strong during the usual windows it can really kill a season, so the NIO has really erratic variations in numbers of storms, and during the actual NE and SW monsoons there are basically no storms at all.

It's another place where SSTs play no role in when the season occurs; it's always warm enough for tropical cyclones..it's shear that controls everything.

I helped design this historical naval wargame once set around India and had to come up with a table to roll on to see if a storm sank your ships if they were at sea, so I had to really immerse myself in this stuff, but it was years ago.

Very interesting. Thanks for the information. It's amazing to see that in the same planet each basin is unique. That's why I like to track tropical cyclones around the world. It's a great opportunity to learn from other cultures, geography, and much more. Thanks once again.

[HURAKAN]

514
FKIN20 VIDP 261548

TC ADVISOTRY
-----------

DTG : 20060426/1200Z
TCAC : NEW DELHI
TC : MALA
NR : 05


PSN : N1130 E09000
MOV : N 03KT
C : 994HPA
MAX WIND : 45KT

FCST PSN + 12HRS : 270000 N1200 E09030
MAX WIND + 12HRS : 50 KT
FCST PSN + 18HRS : 270600 N1230 E09030
MAX WIND + 18HRS : 55KT
FCST PSN + 24HRS : 271200 N1300 E09100
MAX WIND + 24HRS : 60 KT

NEXT MSG : 20060426/1800 Z

FORECASTED TO BECOME A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER THE NEXT 12 - 24 HOURS.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Shear has decreased over the system to 8 knots...There do's seems to be a upper high forcing some southeastly shear over the southern side of the system. But to the north the shear is droping 5 to 10 knots...So yes I expect deeping.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... r-nh16.GIF


Wow the cdo has blown up nicely tonight. Outflow is good with good shape to it. I would not be suprized if this thing got up to 70 or 75 knots durning the next 24 hours.

[skysummit]

Wow...very nice CDO. I wonder how many times we'll see something like that in our basin.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Alot of times, trust me. First Monica, now this.

[HurricaneHunter914]

You know. Come to think of it, it has been a long time since we've have seen a Northern Hemisphere storm.

[HURAKAN]

NO SURPRISE, 55 KNOTS!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Shear down to 6 knots over the system...Upper high starting to reform over the system. 5 to 10 knot decrease is still showing...Cdo exploding over the LLC with a tight LLC. Outflow is looking good.

Forecast winds
0 55 knots
6 60 knots
12 70 knots
24 85 knots
36 85 knots


Forecasted enviroment to improve through out the forecast period. With upper high developing over the cyclone. A northeastward track is expected...

[HURAKAN]

Not good for Myanmar, not good.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This could be the first half way big cyclone in years. In that country is one of the most poor in dictated there is. This could be big.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Isn't 85 kts, 100-110mph?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

55 knots=65 mph
60 knots=70 mph
65 knots=75 mph
70 knots=80 mph
75 knots=85 mph

I think 85 knots=100 mph?

[AussieMark]

Isn't 85 kts, 100-110mph?

85 kts = 97.75 mph

[HurricaneHunter914]

So it is about 100 mph.

[skysummit]

Doesn't kts x 1.15 give you mph? I believe I remembered that correctly from last year.

[HURAKAN]

Lets just remember that India is the official agency here. So whatever they say, it has to be respected.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Darn that looks very good at this time,,,It would only have to form a eye to look alot like the Monica....