WTXS21 PGTW 270830
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/270821ZJUN2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 170
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6S 94.7E TO 11.3S 88.4E WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUM-
BERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 270530Z INDICATES
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 93.3E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 94.1E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTHWEST OF
COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR AND MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 262359Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A WEAKER
LLCC WITH ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE POLEWARD SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS CONTAINED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.
DUE TO IMPROVED OUTFLOW AND INCREASED SURFACE INFLOW, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280830Z.
A SOLID CDO HAS DEVELOP NEAR AND OVER THE SYSTEM POSSIBLE CENTER AND IF IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP, A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM IN A DAY OR TWO.
