Texas Severe Weather Potential for 4/28 and 4/29

[Johnny]

The strongest squall lines that I have seen have come through at night. The worse one that I have seen with my own two eyes was back in the Spring of 2003 I believe. It came through around midnight, knocked our power out and uprooted 20 huge oak trees I have on my 13 acres. Most of them are still layed over back in the woods behind my house. We had trees all over the road and I couldn't go to work the next day. I was on my front porch waiting fo it to hit. Before it even hit the cable went out and about 3 minutes later the power went out. This was about 2 minutes before I felt the first breeze. Talk about an eery feeling. When it hit it hit like a s.o.b.! I couldn't stay on the front porch. The winds were more intense that what I experienced during Alicia when I lived in Southwest, Houston. The leading edge of this squall line was packing 105+ mph winds and it only lasted about a minute at the most. The damage was incredible with roofs being blown off and hundreds of mature trees completely uprooted and laying on their sides. That was probably the worst weather I have experienced. This squall line was supposed to weaken before hitting us.....that didn't happen. Luckily I didn't have any trees fall on my house but it looked like the area I live in got hit by a bomb. Potent straight line winds were the culprit which was obvious because the trees were all laying in the same direction. This was in central Montgomery County.

[Extremeweatherguy]

105mph!?! That is a pretty extreme squall line. We had 105mph winds in Orlando (where I lived at the time) with Hurricane Charley. This event must have never reached south of where you are though, because I have never heard anything about it down here.

Edit: It is also weird in that I can not find mention of this in the 2003 "storm signals" or as a NWS research project. Was this a very isolated event?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the latest from the NWS concerning tomorrow night/Saturday:

MAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE PLACE LATE FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING AS STRONG UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SURFACE DRYLINE APPROACHES SE TX. LOOKS LIKE MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER
WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST TX FRI AFTN/EVENING AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF SE
TX IN THE 06Z-18Z SATURDAY PERIOD. AN IMPRESSIVE 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL TRANSPORT PWS OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
PRONOUNCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL BE IN PLACE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA AS 120 KNOT 300 MB JET APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BOTH 12Z
NAM/GFS SHOW VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILE IN PLACE WITH HELICITIES
INCREASING TO GREATER THAN 400 M2/S2. THE ONLY NEGATING FACTOR TOWARD
SEVERE/ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS THE TIME OF DAY AND LACK OF INSTABILITY
THAT MAY BE PRESENT...BUT THINK STRENGTH OF DYNAMICS WILL BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THIS. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON PER 12Z NAM
WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER WITH MOVEMENT OF DRYLINE AND SUGGESTS SOME
ISOLATED STORMS COULD REFIRE SATURDAY AFTN OVER THE FAR ERN ZONES.

[Johnny]

EWG, I'm pretty sure it was in March of 2003. It could of been 2002. I actually saved the radar presentation from this squall line from a weather radar archive site on my old computer. The squall line did go through your area but not near as intense as what we had and yes, it was fairly isolated. From what I read it was a microburst that caused this. The damage was over 2.5 km so it should be classified as a macroburst. Give me some archives to look at and I can find the info.

[m_ru]

I'm pretty sure I remember that squall line in March of 2003. I'm not really sure how strong the wind gusts were but I remember watching the big oaks and hickorys in my back yard whipping about. The worst squall line I remember was the one in November of 2001 that blew the top out of my neighbor's oak tree.

Edited to add: That squall in 2001 caused quite a bit of damage in Huntsville and surrounding towns like Riverside. It also blew the roof off of the library at one of the schools in Coldspring.

[Extremeweatherguy]

what would be scary is if we got a strong derecho down here. Those things have been known to produce wind gusts over 130mph! Also, they usually are a widespread event with most people in it's path seeing gusts well over 60mph. If we had a strong derecho dive south into Houston...it could spell trouble. The entire NWS warning area would see wind damage. It is probably the 3rd worst thing that could happen, next to a mega tornado outbreak and a Cat. 4/5 strength hurricane landfall.

Edit: another big event that could occur would be a severe "wake low" which occur by surprise and can produce a long period of tropical force or even hurricane force winds. For more info...visit this link:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/wakelow.htm

[Extremeweatherguy]

Joe Lundberg, the severe weather expert at Accuweather, says that severe weather in TX/OK this weekend is not a question of "if", but rather a question of "how bad will it be". He says to expect a large swath of damaging winds, large hail and even tornadoes as two systems clash together over the region. This is certainly reassuring news for those who want to see some action. He never got this exited about the last two systems.

[jeff]

Area looks to be rocked pretty good Friday night into Saturday morning.

Potentail for long lived MCS/bow echo event across W, C, and E TX.

Ingredients coming together for a significant severe weather event across TX. Potent upper level low over Yuma, AZ will track east into TX late Friday with strong dynamics and lift overspreading the W TX dryline. Some questions remain as to the amount of WAA thunderstorms over C and N TX and their potential impact on surface inflow into the development region of W TX. Right now it appears WAA on the nose of a strong low level jet will run up the Rio Grande into SW TX where surface heating to the W of the C TX convection should fire by mid to late afternoon.

Downstream air mass over SC and C TX eastward to western LA will be very moist (Td at 70 or greater and PWS of 1.8-2.0 inches), strongly sheared, and moderately to highly unstable. Given mid level flow and shear, scattered supercells to start will likely quickly build upscale into an MCS and roar eastward. Tornadic threat will be greatest across SW TX into the region south of San Antonio where cells will likely be more discrete. MCS/bow echo with attached wake/meso low should track through C TX into SE and E TX overnight with a damaging wind threat. May see a few cells pop ahead of the main line if the cap erodes enough...and given the expected shear values could produce a few tornadoes.

Timing differences continue with the models and a later timing of events could push the arrival of the complex into SE TX into mid morning Saturday which is usually unfavorable timing due to a lack of surface heating and instability....however strong dynamics may be able to compenstate and maintain the complex through the area.

We shall revist tomorrow morning

[Extremeweatherguy]

Great post Jeff. I just hope the timing plays out right so that we can see some severe weather.

[Johnny]

m_ru, I remember that squall line very well. I was out deer hunting behind my house and it was very warm out. The wind was really kickin' out of the south which kept the deer very skittish around my deer feeder. I went inside and was glued to the weather channel knowing we had severe weather out of the way. The first tornado warning came out for Montgomery County around 10:30 that night. The squall line pushed through about 15 minutes later and knocked out our electricity four about 5 to 6 hours that night. We didn't loose any trees but I'm sure we had wind gusts up to around 60 mph or so. I remember it because it was the opening weekend for deer season. It was also on a Sunday night. How's that for a good memory?

[jkt21787]

What's with wishing for all the severe weather? After having gone through a month where dozens died in my area, it makes you pretty sick to hear those who are wishing for severe weather.

Hopefully you guys will get your wish. As long as its not happening here again...

[wxmann_91]

What's with wishing for all the severe weather? After having gone through a month where dozens died in my area, it makes you pretty sick to hear those who are wishing for severe weather.

Hopefully you guys will get your wish. As long as its not happening here again...

They have been doing so for the past month.

[southerngale]

What's with wishing for all the severe weather? After having gone through a month where dozens died in my area, it makes you pretty sick to hear those who are wishing for severe weather.

Hopefully you guys will get your wish. As long as its not happening here again...

Hey now, I live too close to those guys and I don't want severe weather. Even if nobody died, it would be really bad for the many people still trying to rebuild and repair after Rita (including myself). However, we do need rain, and I will wish for that, but plain ol rain or thunderstorms is all we need....nothing severe.

And so sorry about those who died in your area.

[Extremeweatherguy]

What's with wishing for all the severe weather? After having gone through a month where dozens died in my area, it makes you pretty sick to hear those who are wishing for severe weather.

Hopefully you guys will get your wish. As long as its not happening here again...

did anyone say they were wishing for people to die? no. By severe weather I do not mean deadly tornadoes or grapefruit sized hail. All I am wishing for is some good lightning, cool clouds, strong wind gusts and may be some small hail.

[jkt21787]

What's with wishing for all the severe weather? After having gone through a month where dozens died in my area, it makes you pretty sick to hear those who are wishing for severe weather.

Hopefully you guys will get your wish. As long as its not happening here again...

Hey now, I live too close to those guys and I don't want severe weather. Even if nobody died, it would be really bad for the many people still trying to rebuild and repair after Rita (including myself). However, we do need rain, and I will wish for that, but plain ol rain or thunderstorms is all we need....nothing severe.

And so sorry about those who died in your area.

Oh yeah, I completely understand that. I know your area is in much need of the rain, so I do personally wish you get that without a lot of severe weather.

We are all passionate about weather, so its understandable that sometimes we want things to get a little active. But this constant hoping that severe weather will indeed materialize can go a little far. It may seem fine at the time but its not until the results you realize how bad you will feel for doing it. I've been there before when I was younger, so I know, but I've quickly matured and learned just how destructive and deadly that ANY type of severe weather is. 7 people were killed in a derecho here in 2003, and of course 30+ dead in this state just this month from tornadoes, so it reinforces my points further.

We can't control the weather, and I will always be passionate and enjoy tracking the weather, whatever it may be at the time. Tracking severe weather is by far what I enjoy most in fact. But I've learned not to hope and wish for it, just be there if its going to happen and hope that life and property will be spared in any way possible.

Its been tough here the last month, no doubt. A lot of people are rebuilding their lives, though many don't even have that opportunity any more. I appreciate your thoughts, Southerngale.

[Johnny]

We are all passionate about weather, so its understandable that sometimes we want things to get a little active.


I know the destructiveness of what severe weather can do. I realize this after spending my entire life living close to the coast. I completely understand where you are coming from of course but remember, most every member here reflects off of your statement above, including you. That seems to be what is going on here. No one here wants to see death caused by severe weather. What we are hoping for is some good solid rain and a nice old fasion thunderstorm with heavy rain, thunder, lightning and some gusty winds. Damaging hail and wind is the last thing I want. I have a pretty big garden consisting of yellow corn, bush beans, squash, potatoes, 24 tomatoe plants, okra and watermelon. Trust me...I'm not wishing for anything severe.

[m_ru]

m_ru, I remember that squall line very well. I was out deer hunting behind my house and it was very warm out. The wind was really kickin' out of the south which kept the deer very skittish around my deer feeder. I went inside and was glued to the weather channel knowing we had severe weather out of the way. The first tornado warning came out for Montgomery County around 10:30 that night. The squall line pushed through about 15 minutes later and knocked out our electricity four about 5 to 6 hours that night. We didn't loose any trees but I'm sure we had wind gusts up to around 60 mph or so. I remember it because it was the opening weekend for deer season. It was also on a Sunday night. How's that for a good memory?

Oh yeah! It was a Sunday night. I remember staying up watching the squall line for hours on radar hoping it would stay together instead of doing my science project. The next day (even though the power was out we had class) I told my teacher that the wind blew a limb through a window into my room and that my project was destroyed when all the rain came in. That's one lie I will never really regret since I got a 3 day extention for that project.

Boy I sure have grown up in the past 5 years.

[southerngale]

What's with wishing for all the severe weather? After having gone through a month where dozens died in my area, it makes you pretty sick to hear those who are wishing for severe weather.

Hopefully you guys will get your wish. As long as its not happening here again...

did anyone say they were wishing for people to die? no. By severe weather I do not mean deadly tornadoes or grapefruit sized hail. All I am wishing for is some good lightning, cool clouds, strong wind gusts and may be some small hail.

I think we all know you aren't wishing for anyone to die. He explained his reaction a little more in his next post. While we're all passionate about weather, I guess when you've witnessed devastation and/or death due to storms, although the fascination is still there, you just look at things differently. With me, it was a destructive hurricane. With him, it was a severe weather outbreak. I also enjoy watching/hearing lightning, cool clouds, and good ol rain, but I can do without the strong winds and hail. Of course if it's itty bitty hail that doesn't damage anything, that would be ok. I've seen hail here several times that was kewl to look at bounce around on the porch, but was so small, it didn't even come close to putting a dent in my car in the driveway, or damaging anything else.
Tornadoes? Any size, shape, or form - stay far, far away!!

[wxman22]

Looks like the SPC has issued a MODERATE risk of severe weather for portions of West Central Texas , it'll be intresting to see how much it's expanded during the day....





AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL/CNTRL
TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON FRI. UPPER
LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SW WILL ACCELERATE EWD THROUGH THE
SRN ROCKIES EARLY TODAY AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH A NRN STREAM
IMPULSE DROPPING SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE SRN DISTURBANCE AND
ATTENDANT 60-METER/12-HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS FRI AFTN/NIGHT.

AT THE SFC...THE WARM FRONT SITUATED ACROSS SRN TX WILL REDEVELOP
NWD THROUGH WRN/CNTRL TX BY FRI AFTN. A LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE SRN TX PNHDL SWD INTO SWRN TX BY FRI
MID-AFTN. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN STREAM
TROUGH...WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS AND SWD THROUGH THE TX
PNHDL THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

...SRN PLAINS...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY FRI
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND CNTRL/ERN TX...ALONG THE NOSE OF A
LLJ. THIS WILL ACT TO REINFORCE THE NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS
CNTRL TX THROUGH FRI EVENING.

LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WARM CONVEYOR WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD
DURING THE AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR ACROSS
SWRN/WCNTRL TX NWD INTO THE ERN TX PNHDL/SWRN OK FRI AFTN.
CONCURRENTLY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...NOW IMPROVING ACROSS DEEP S TX
NWWD INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION...WILL ADVECT NWWD AS THE SELY FLOW
ACCELERATES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. BY PEAK
HEATING...60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS SHOULD EXIST ALONG/E OF THE
DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...OWING TO LARGE SCALE
ASCENT/MOISTENING AND MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...SPREADING EWD ATOP
THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL ENCOURAGE TSTMS TO INITIATE ALONG
THE DRYLINE/HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID-AFTN FROM THE ERN TX PNHDL SWD
INTO SWRN TX. GIVEN 70+ KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY...TSTMS WILL LIKELY GROW INTO SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...PARTICULARLY OVER WCNTRL/CNTRL TX SWD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE.
BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW VCNTY OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL ALSO
BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INFLUX OF A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER.

THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK DURING THE EVENING AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EWD. THUS...TSTMS WILL TEND TO EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR
MCS AFTER DARK...THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS OK...CNTRL/ERN TX OVERNIGHT
WITH ATTENDANT HAIL/HIGH WINDS. STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FAVOR
THE SRN EDGE OF THE MCS ACROSS SCNTRL TX WHERE THE BETTER QUALITY
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE S OF THE WARM FRONT.

[southerngale]

Here's the latest from SPC for today:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL/CNTRL
TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON FRI. UPPER
LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SW WILL ACCELERATE EWD THROUGH THE
SRN ROCKIES EARLY TODAY AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH A NRN STREAM
IMPULSE DROPPING SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE SRN DISTURBANCE AND
ATTENDANT 60-METER/12-HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS FRI AFTN/NIGHT.

AT THE SFC...THE WARM FRONT SITUATED ACROSS SRN TX WILL REDEVELOP
NWD THROUGH WRN/CNTRL TX BY FRI AFTN. A LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE SRN TX PNHDL SWD INTO SWRN TX BY FRI
MID-AFTN. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN STREAM
TROUGH...WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS AND SWD THROUGH THE TX
PNHDL THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

...SRN PLAINS...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY FRI
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND CNTRL/ERN TX...ALONG THE NOSE OF A
LLJ. THIS WILL ACT TO REINFORCE THE NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS
CNTRL TX THROUGH FRI EVENING.

LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WARM CONVEYOR WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD
DURING THE AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR ACROSS
SWRN/WCNTRL TX NWD INTO THE ERN TX PNHDL/SWRN OK FRI AFTN.
CONCURRENTLY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...NOW IMPROVING ACROSS DEEP S TX
NWWD INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION...WILL ADVECT NWWD AS THE SELY FLOW
ACCELERATES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. BY PEAK
HEATING...60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS SHOULD EXIST ALONG/E OF THE
DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...OWING TO LARGE SCALE
ASCENT/MOISTENING AND MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...SPREADING EWD ATOP
THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL ENCOURAGE TSTMS TO INITIATE ALONG
THE DRYLINE/HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID-AFTN FROM THE ERN TX PNHDL SWD
INTO SWRN TX. GIVEN 70+ KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY...TSTMS WILL LIKELY GROW INTO SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...PARTICULARLY OVER WCNTRL/CNTRL TX SWD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE.
BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW VCNTY OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL ALSO
BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INFLUX OF A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER.

THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK DURING THE EVENING AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EWD. THUS...TSTMS WILL TEND TO EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR
MCS AFTER DARK...THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS OK...CNTRL/ERN TX OVERNIGHT
WITH ATTENDANT HAIL/HIGH WINDS. STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FAVOR
THE SRN EDGE OF THE MCS ACROSS SCNTRL TX WHERE THE BETTER QUALITY
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE S OF THE WARM FRONT.

...NRN PLAINS...
STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE WEAKENING NRN STREAM
IMPULSE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS FRI. A NARROW AXIS OF
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AOA 45 DEG F BENEATH H5 TEMPERATURES
AROUND MINUS 20 DEG C WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCT STRONG TSTMS.
THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...MAGNITUDE OF THE LAPSE
RATES WILL PROBABLY FOSTER LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION WITH ISOLD STRONGER
UPDRAFTS.

..RACY/BRIGHT/CROSBIE.. 04/28/2006


Categorical






Tornado






Hail






Wind






And for Saturday:

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU...

...EAST TX/AR...
A LARGE LINEAR MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
SOUTH OF A DEEPENING UPPER-LOW. MODEL FORECASTS AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO WITH A SQUALL-LINE EXTENDING FROM OK SWD ACROSS EAST AND
CNTRL TX. AS THE UPPER-SYSTEM TRANSITIONS NEWD DURING THE
DAY...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE LINEAR MCS
WHICH SHOULD AFFECT AREAS OF FAR EAST TX...LA...ERN OK AND THE
OZARKS BY AFTERNOON.

AT LOW-LEVELS...MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS LIKELY
INCREASING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AS FAR NORTH AS THE SRN
OZARKS. THIS MAY ALLOW POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LINEAR MCS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN LA AND SRN AR SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD AID THE WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN THE LINE. ALTHOUGH
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE THAT STEEP...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
LINE. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY INITIATE TO THE WEST ACROSS ERN OK AND
NE TX WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN A DRY SLOT
WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW. STORMS MAY
REMAIN MORE DISCRETE IN THIS AREA AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IF MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
BEFORE THE SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES IN THE EVENING HOURS.

...KS/WRN MO...
AN UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WRAP NORTH AND WWD
AROUND THE UPPER-LOW AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F SHOULD BE IN
PLACE ACROSS WRN MO AND ACROSS THE ERN HALF KS. SFC HEATING AND THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW SHOULD ALLOW
DISCRETE STORMS TO INITIATE BY THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE SLOWLY NWD
ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN KS AND
WRN MO SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. ANY
SEVERE THREAT THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK
HEATING.

..BROYLES.. 04/28/2006

Categorical






Probabilistic