91L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[SouthFloridawx]

I actualy woke up and saw this thread and really thought we had the first invest of the season.

It is the first invest.

[SouthFloridawx]

WHXX01 KWBC 290322
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060429 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060429 0000 060429 1200 060430 0000 060430 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.7N 69.6W 33.6N 67.3W 35.7N 68.7W 34.8N 70.7W
BAMM 30.7N 69.6W 32.9N 67.2W 34.6N 68.3W 34.0N 70.4W
A98E 30.7N 69.6W 29.3N 69.4W 30.2N 66.6W 33.6N 60.4W
LBAR 30.7N 69.6W 31.0N 68.4W 32.4N 67.9W 34.3N 67.8W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 29KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060501 0000 060502 0000 060503 0000 060504 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.0N 71.5W 28.9N 57.5W 34.6N 47.4W 35.4N 31.5W
BAMM 31.1N 71.8W 28.5N 61.8W 35.7N 52.3W 40.3N 39.9W
A98E 35.7N 57.9W 36.0N 53.5W 38.7N 46.7W 40.0N 20.8W
LBAR 36.4N 67.6W 41.2N 65.1W 44.9N 59.2W 42.9N 52.7W
SHIP 28KTS 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 28KTS 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.7N LONCUR = 69.6W DIRCUR = 195DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 34.0N LONM12 = 68.6W DIRM12 = 201DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 37.3N LONM24 = 67.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[Ivan14]

Oh my mistake I got it mixed up with the false E-mail that the NHC sent out.

[HurricaneHunter914]

LBAR is on the map. Looks a little more in agreement with the models than last year.

[Scott_inVA]

91L is a "real" Invest however this is non-tropical.

I'm also running maps on this, kinda as a drill to get things working this season. I have tropicals up and will work on adding Globals today (gotta cut grass and get ready for daughter's Senior Prom )

Link: http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[hicksta]

Make sure you have a loooong talk with her "date"

[Scott_inVA]

Make sure you have a loooong talk with her "date"

Yep. I have 2 daughters and thus I dislike all guys! This particular one she is dating I absolutely detest. Think when he picks her up this evening I will be sharpening the kitchen knives while cranking Crazy Train by Ozzy.

BTW...added GFS, CMC and UKMET to the map.

Scott

[x-y-no]

Make sure you have a loooong talk with her "date"

Yep. I have 2 daughters and thus I dislike all guys! This particular one she is dating I absolutely detest. Think when he picks her up this evening I will be sharpening the kitchen knives while cranking Crazy Train by Ozzy.

BTW...added GFS, CMC and UKMET to the map.

Scott

LOL at that image ...

[brunota2003]

Make sure you have a loooong talk with her "date"

Yep. I have 2 daughters and thus I dislike all guys! This particular one she is dating I absolutely detest. Think when he picks her up this evening I will be sharpening the kitchen knives while cranking Crazy Train by Ozzy.

BTW...added GFS, CMC and UKMET to the map.

Scott

nice!!! I would be cleaning my gun though... with another one sitting beside me loaded, claiming I was going to clean that one next...if he does anything stupid in front of you...yea...

[hurricanefloyd5]

there are two centers or lows and thunderstormstorms looks to be flaring around the smaller center/low and dropped ttwo mb so my thinking is at lease a subtropical system or something?????????????

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html and http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[CHRISTY]

yep real invest but Non-Tropical for sure....Atleast for Now!

[Scott_inVA]

there are two centers or lows and thunderstormstorms looks to be flaring around the smaller center/low and dropped ttwo mb so my thinking is at lease a subtropical system or something?????????????

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html and http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Decent ocean storm...probably but not subtropical.

There is an elongated area of low pressure accurately depicted by the 12Z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_000l.gif

High pressure builds down thru the Mid-Atlantic and east coast (this is producing the very chilly low temps here). The Invest then will move generally north, past the Mid-Atlantic; into colder air and over much colder water.

Eastern US is stuck under a huge Omega block from Canada to FL and the GOM so the Invest doesn't have a way to track east or west. Fun to watch though...I consider it Spring Training

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Home of the real model maps again in 2006
Lexington, VA


cleaning the guns....................ROFL. Perhaps I should be crankin' "Flirtin' With Disaster" by Molly Hatchett!!!

[CHRISTY]

there are two centers or lows and thunderstormstorms looks to be flaring around the smaller center/low and dropped ttwo mb so my thinking is at lease a subtropical system or something?????????????

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html and http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Decent ocean storm...probably but not subtropical.

There is an elongated area of low pressure accurately depicted by the 12Z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_000l.gif

High pressure builds down thru the Mid-Atlantic and east coast (this is producing the very chilly low temps here). The Invest then will move generally north, past the Mid-Atlantic; into colder air and over much colder water.

Eastern US is stuck under a huge Omega block from Canada to FL and the GOM so the Invest doesn't have a way to track east or west. Fun to watch though...I consider it Spring Training

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Home of the real model maps again in 2006
Lexington, VA


cleaning the guns....................ROFL. Perhaps I should be crankin' "Flirting With Disaster" by Molly Hatchett!!!

Let me ask u if that Omega Block your talking about sticks around...wont this probably indicate another severe hurricane season for florida.its been pretty persistant so far this year.what are your thoughts?

[CHRISTY]

GUYS HERE'S A REAL CLOSEUP VISIBLE IMAGE ON THE NEW INVEST....

[MiamiensisWx]

Little or no chance, most likely.

[CHRISTY]

yea looks like its NON-TROPICAL .....no chance!

Here's another visible image....

[MiamiensisWx]

Shear is too high, too - mostly because there is very little convection.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Basically it is just a naked swirling thing. But I think it still has a chance (well the blob at the end of it has a chance).

[Scott_inVA]

naked swirling thing = Gale Center

Omega Block = Low will loop-d-loop then head north.

[Epsilon_Fan]

looks like a stranded nor-easter to me... hmm we'll see