Theo's AstroMet 2006 Hurricane & Tropical Storm Forecast

[Theo]

What do you mean by "more scientifically?"

Try a dataset of one easily and rigorously defined, type of evere weather eventsworldwide (you haven't given any explanation of why moon declination should only affect the US or Atlantic).....tropical cyclones reaching Category 5, tornado outbreaks with more than a dozen tornadoes..whatever...and run a statistical analysis to see if there's a statistically significant (more than would be expected by chance) correlation of such events with your declination windows.

Read my post in the Global Forum section on Astrometeorology.

THAT'S Science.

A straight question......you do admit and recognize that your declination windows cover 29% of all the days in a year, correct?

propose that perhaps you learn more about astrometeorology

Spare us the song and dance and call it ASTROLOGY which is what it is.

Yes, of course. Astrologers invented mathematics, meteorology, and many other sciences. How do you think the weather was forecasted before the invention of The Weather Channel?

If you are keen enough to notice, the regions, and dates for unstable weather conditions DURING hurricane season are specified. Along with exact dates.

The most important talent for any astrologer is the making of vague predictions that SEEM specific.

Surely, you have no clue as to what you are talking about.

The Amazing Randi does a great demonstration of this when he speaks in schools, etc. The students aren't told who he is, and he arrives, takes everyone's birthdate, and provides each student with an individualized horoscope. The students then excitedly talk about how incredibly accurate the horoscope is in describing their personality.Then Randi asks each student to pass their horoscope to the student next to them.Turns out, he gave everyone the EXACT SAME HOROSCOPE. Then he explains the scam of astrology.

Who cares what "amazing randi" says? I don't. I could care less.

In no way, shape or form have you made any specific forecasts; For September, you've picked out, apparently, something around 9 days, or a third of the month, for heightened tropical activity...the Atlantic, it seems, though I suspect if you had to you'd toss in a West Pac Typhoon if it fell within your dates, after the fact.

Actually, I've been forecasting long-range weather long before the Internet became popular. Please, don't assume you know who I am. You do not.

The odds that any 9 day period in September contain at least one tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning are very high.

There are no "odds" in astrology. Only science.

You're making a great mass of predictions that have essentially no chance of failing.

Really? Naming specific dates for unstable weather according to transits of the Sun, Moon and planets. Really? Why don't you try it then since it is so easy. And remember, give specific dates.

As for Penn & Teller, and that crap. Well, you should know better.

I can sense your fear...nothing terrifies people like yourself than people thinking critically and rationally, and people encouraging it like Penn and Teller.

I personally knew Penn & Teller, buddy, so give it a break. I knew them long before they were known. They are entertainment. An act. Got that? You watch too much cable TV. But, perhaps you enjoy that fluff. I prefer the science of astrology, and forecasting long-range weather for the public and my clients.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

lol I would tell the mods about this thread, but I'm finding it absolutely hilarious.

BTW, did I mention I personally know Queen Elizabeth II. A lovely woman indeed.

[Theo]

i dont get the moon-tropics connection

Just take a look at the world's weather during lunar maximums to the north or south. Severe weather, heavy rains, thunder, lightning, tropical activity, cyclones, gusty winds, tornados, gales, etc. We are in such a Lunar Maximum Declination cycle now - check out the weather events globally, and you will always see unstable activity when the Moon is transiting particular signs during apogee/perigee cycles relative to the Earth such as right now in late April, early May.

[Theo]

lol I would tell the mods about this thread, but I'm finding it absolutely hilarious.

BTW, did I mention I personally know Queen Elizabeth II. A lovely woman indeed.

Is there a point that has to do with the weather here?

[MiamiensisWx]

I personally knew Penn & Teller, buddy, so give it a break. I knew them long before they were known. They are entertainment. An act. Got that? You watch too much cable TV. But, perhaps you enjoy that fluff. I prefer the science of astrology, and forecasting long-range weather for the public and my clients.

What is your religion? Just curious.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

OMG Severe weather in April and May! That is totally not suppose to happen! We better run for our lives!

[MiamiensisWx]

I agree, Adam. That is just natural. However, I do think that space weather (NOT what Theo is talking about, but what Jim Hughes mentions) may play a part in how that and tropical activity behavior unfolds.

[Theo]

OMG Severe weather in April and May! That is totally not suppose to happen! We better run for our lives!

The Sun regulates the constitution of Earth's weather - called the seasons. And severe weather can, and does occur in all seasons - spring, summer, fall, and winter.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Oh with Jim Hughes...hm. I do agree that very long range sunspot cycles can probably help to influence global warming/cooling...as I believe they found some research evidence on that.

Day-to-day weather I'm still a bit iffy on.

[Theo]

I agree, Adam. That is just natural. However, I do think that space weather (NOT what Theo is talking about, but what Jim Hughes mentions) may play a part in how that and tropical activity behavior unfolds.

I practice space weather, and remember, not only the Sun is in space, but the Moon, the planets, and of course, our planet - the Earth. Everything is inter-connected, and if you know something about celestial mechanics, or physics, you'd know this.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Call me Spanky, but I'm pretty sure the sun does not rotate around Earth. I believe it has more or less to do with the tilt of the earth's axis. Again, *totally* not sure about that.

(Seasons that is)

[Theo]

Call me Spanky, but I'm pretty sure the sun does not rotate around Earth. I believe it has more or less to do with the tilt of the earth's axis. Again, *totally* not sure about that.

(Seasons that is)

Astrologers use geocentric calculations to forecast for celestial bodies relative to the Earth, and Heliocentric for other means. I combine both methods according to classical methods.

[Theo]

Oh with Jim Hughes...hm. I do agree that very long range sunspot cycles can probably help to influence global warming/cooling...as I believe they found some research evidence on that.

Day-to-day weather I'm still a bit iffy on.

The Earth is not a "closed-system" but is wholly part of the entire solar system, and has effects on other celestial bodies as well. The Sun is the prime mover, and is a very large magnet with a plasma core. All the planets are magnets, and each one is pierced by electro-magnetic lines - every inch of every planetary body in many variations. The entire solar system is a large magnetic clock which is "read" by trained people called astrologers who invented mathematics like algebra, geometry, and trigonmetry to deal with the many variables of moving celestial bodies relative to one another, and the Earth itself.

[senorpepr]

Okay... simmer down. Summer is over.

Let's keep the discussion civilized regardless of your viewpoints on the methodology of Theo's forecasts.

[milankovitch]

There is such a thing as an atmospheric tide and it is greatest at the equator. Since SLP variability is a minimum in the tropics the atmospheric tide is most noticible there. However, it's still something that is barely detectable in very long datasets. There is both a solar atmospheric tide and a lunar atmospheric tide. The solar atmospheric tide is greater than the lunar one. Atmospheric tides do not influence the weather.

As for the astrology stuff I have no idea where your getting that stuff from. You're obviously interested in the atmosphere you just need a good knowledge base on the subject. How the atmosphere really works is much more interesting! Try picking up a used copy of this book.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/013101 ... e&n=283155

Information on Atmospheric Tides Below


http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/gloss ... eric-tide1

atmospheric tide—(Also called atmospheric oscillation.) Defined in analogy to the oceanic tide as an atmospheric motion of the scale of the earth, in which vertical accelerations are neglected (but compressibility is taken into account).

Both the sun and moon produce atmospheric tides, and there exist both gravitational tides and thermal tides. The harmonic component of greatest amplitude, the 12-hour or semidiurnal solar atmospheric tide, is both gravitational and thermal in origin, the fact that it is greater than the corresponding lunar atmospheric tide being ascribed usually to a resonance in the atmosphere with a free period very close to the tidal period. Other tides of 6, 8, 12, and 24 hours have been observed.
Chapman, S., 1951: Compendium of Meteorology, 510–530.


solar atmospheric tide—An atmospheric tide due to the thermal or gravitational action of the sun.

Six- and eight-hour components of small amplitude have been observed. They are primarily thermal in origin. The 12-hour component has by many times the greatest amplitude of any atmospheric tidal component, about 1.5 mb at the equator and 0.5 mb in mid-latitudes. This relatively large amplitude is often explained as a resonance effect. The 24-hour component is a thermal tide with great local variability.


lunar atmospheric tide—An atmospheric tide due to the gravitational attraction of the moon.

The only detectable components are the 12-lunar-hour or semidiurnal, as in the oceanic tides, and two others of very nearly the same period. The amplitude of this atmospheric tide is so small, about 0.06 mb in the Tropics and 0.02 mb in middle latitudes, that it is detected only by careful statistical analysis of a long record. See tide.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I have no doubt that there are atmospheric tides, as that makes sense. But considering the depth of the atmosphere, it is almost like saying that a the tide you experience at the beach is going to dramatically affect something on the ocean floor.

[Theo]

There is such a thing as an atmospheric tide and it is greatest at the equator. Since SLP variability is a minimum in the tropics the atmospheric tide is most noticible there. However, it's still something that is barely detectable in very long datasets. There is both a solar atmospheric tide and a lunar atmospheric tide. The solar atmospheric tide is greater that the lunar one. Atmospheric tides due not influence the weather.

http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/gloss ... eric-tide1

atmospheric tide—(Also called atmospheric oscillation.) Defined in analogy to the oceanic tide as an atmospheric motion of the scale of the earth, in which vertical accelerations are neglected (but compressibility is taken into account).

Both the sun and moon produce atmospheric tides, and there exist both gravitational tides and thermal tides. The harmonic component of greatest amplitude, the 12-hour or semidiurnal solar atmospheric tide, is both gravitational and thermal in origin, the fact that it is greater than the corresponding lunar atmospheric tide being ascribed usually to a resonance in the atmosphere with a free period very close to the tidal period. Other tides of 6, 8, 12, and 24 hours have been observed.
Chapman, S., 1951: Compendium of Meteorology, 510–530.


solar atmospheric tide—An atmospheric tide due to the thermal or gravitational action of the sun.

Six- and eight-hour components of small amplitude have been observed. They are primarily thermal in origin. The 12-hour component has by many times the greatest amplitude of any atmospheric tidal component, about 1.5 mb at the equator and 0.5 mb in mid-latitudes. This relatively large amplitude is often explained as a resonance effect. The 24-hour component is a thermal tide with great local variability.


lunar atmospheric tide—An atmospheric tide due to the gravitational attraction of the moon.

The only detectable components are the 12-lunar-hour or semidiurnal, as in the oceanic tides, and two others of very nearly the same period. The amplitude of this atmospheric tide is so small, about 0.06 mb in the Tropics and 0.02 mb in middle latitudes, that it is detected only by careful statistical analysis of a long record. See tide.

Atmospheric tides were researched in 1807 and rediscovered by British scientists Appleton and Weekes in 1939, who were investigating the strange phenomenon that shortwave radio signals reached around the world more clearly at New and Full Moon phases. They concluded if the atmosphere (or ‘stratosphere’) made radiowaves change clarity because of the phase of the Moon, then there must be a tidal effect in the air. There are scientific measurements of the atmospheric tide attributable to the Moon.

Whenever the Moon is above the horizon it has two bulges beneath it. These are pulled by gravitational attraction. One is made of water and the other is a bulge of air. The everchanging replacement of the water bulge results in the sea tide and the replacement of air within the air bulge results in the weather.

When the Moon is above the horizon, it is stretching the air and attracting, by gravitational pull, more atmosphere to higher levels in the sky - creating a larger volumed gaseous environment. The atmosphere is now a fraction higher and the amount can be up to 25% between phases.

The highest it gets is on a Full Moon night. If the useful atmosphere is 5 miles thick, then this stretch could be 1.25 miles, or for an accepted total depth of atmosphere of 60 miles, the atmospheric-tidal difference between high and low could be up to 15 miles.

The result of a higher atmosphere is to keep the cold of space further away from Earth. When the air height is lower because the Moon has set below the horizon and takes the air bulge with it, the cold of space creeps closer to the Earth, and the subsequent drop in temperature can cause clouds to condense at this time. That will happen during the day of a Full moon, and this is why it often clouds up on that day around noon-time.

When the Moon is below the horizon it is more likely to rain. If no rain happens, temperatures will most likely drop. Very often rain will also fall an hour or so on either side of the Moon setting. At New Moon, when the Moon is overhead during the day, rain is less likely - but rain is more likely at night at this phase. In contrast, at Full Moon, the nights will nearly always be clear. Old mariners used to have nautical saying: "the Full Moon eats clouds."

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A few quastions for theo

What is your number of tropical cyclones...Meaning tropical storms,hurricanes,major hurricanes.

2# When do you expect the next cyclone to form on earth?

3# When will the next powerful cyclone form on earth?

4# When do you expect the next 9 point earth quake?

5# When doy you expect that big earth quake to hit the Portland area?

Lets see if you can get these. If you can they there will be no quastion you will earn alot of respect.

[Theo]

I have no doubt that there are atmospheric tides, as that makes sense. But considering the depth of the atmosphere, it is almost like saying that a the tide you experience at the beach is going to dramatically affect something on the ocean floor.

It is a known fact that there are at least four separate but sometimes interfacing tides caused by lunar gravitation. The best known is the sea-tide, the exact times of which repeat every so many weeks, months and years.

There is also the inner-core tide affecting the molten core of the Earth (Core Tide) which plays a major role in the cycles of earthquakes and eruptions, the land-tide (called Earth-tide, where the ground rises towards the Moon about 8 inches per day as the Moon goes overhead and then recedes again when the Moon goes below the horizon) and the air-tide affecting the height of the atmosphere.

[Theo]

I completely agree with Derecho in this thread.

Although, another point is, "Find a group ignorant (btw ignorant is not in a negative sense here, it just means "doesn't know about") of certain subjects, flood them with false information that has a bunch of fancy and scientific-sounding words in it, and the vast majority of them will believe."

There is nothing to "believe" in. Observe, record, and use the scientific method. Apparently, you think that the Moon is put up there for your entertainment. I do not submit to this view.

There is no significant correlation, considering all the times outside your "declination window" that severe weather occurs.

Assertion that is incorrect. There is plenty of data over millenia on lunar declinations and unstable weather, and giant storms.

I could easily say, well, I used the bathroom on the days Katrina, Rita, and Wilma reached category 5 strength, so therefore, my using the bathroom caused them to do that. Yet it fails to take into account that many other days I use the bathroom, nothing happens. No significant correlation.

Bathroom? Excuse me? Where is the science in that? Hey, if you have to go, then you have to go. That has nothing to do with the weather.