91L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[HURAKAN]

any new update on the storm

If you mean 91L



IT'S AS HARMLESS AS AN ANT.

[CHRISTY]

[bvigal]

I just found this from 2:30 marine forecast from Wally Barnes, TPC/NHS:

...AT THE SURFACE...DEVELOPING STORM LOW CENTER AT 33N67W 1004 MB DRIFT SE. CAA STEADILY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WHILE GULFSTREAM HEAT CONTENT CAN ONLY EXACERBATE CONDITIONS. GALE AND STORM CONDITIONS REMAIN N OF FORECAST AREA...BUT LONG FETCH ON W SIDE OF LOW PRES CENTER WILL BRING HIGHER SEAS THAN NWW3 SOLUTION. NEVERTHELESS...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND LOW PRES CENTER AND TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED EXPECTED TO INCREASE WIND ON ERN QUADRANTS TO GALE FORCE...JUST E OF FORECAST AREA... FOR SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...12 HRS...BEFORE CENTER DRIFTS N OF 31N.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...COLD FRONT JUST ENTERED NW GULF WITH ALL NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS IT MOVES E AND WEAKENS RAPIDLY WHEN UPPER CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE.

CARIBBEAN TRADES EASE OFF AS GRADIENT DECREASES WITH ATLC LOW PRES/COLD FRONT RUNNING JUST N OF PUERTO RICO.

I'm glad those sailors I mentioned yesterday have postponed leaving until Monday!
http://www.carib1500.com/

This quote could have been taken out of context by some readers, as I posted it in the poll "A possible system????????" right after saying: "my vote: not even, it's a non-tropical low, likely a gale"

[HurricaneHunter914]

It kinda looks better. At least it now has some cloud cover over the center.

[wxman57]

It kinda looks better. At least it now has some cloud cover over the center.

I guess it looks better than nothing. However, SSTs in the area are in the mid 60s - not exactly tropical waters.

https://www.navo.navy.mil/LIBRARY/Metoc ... index.html

[TS Zack]

Cold Core... I cannot believe the attention this thing is getting, LOL.

[gatorcane]

Perhaps you should read, Hurricane Hunter.

CHRISTY's post:

Quote:
Last edited by CHRISTY on Sat Apr 29, 2006 6:25 pm; edited 2 times in total


My post timestamp:

Quote:
Posted: Sat Apr 29, 2006 6:01 pm Post subject:


And if those two things didn't ring a bell, this probably should have:

CHRISTY wrote:
DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:
CHRISTY, I love you, but winds don't flow that way around a low pressure system this side of the equator, sweetheart.
fixed it.....

Hey Doc back off on Christy - I think you are being a bit condescending here.

[Jim Hughes]

AFM:

Thanks for the info re: the test invest. The system seemed a little marginal to warrant that kind of attention.

Did you get any information re: the mysterious email many of us got yesterday from the NHC too? It was a test also? (Sorry if this has been answered elsewere. I've been off of the boards).

WJS3

Nope...I just asked them why an invest was issued on an extratropical system.

And as all the good amatuer mets on this board and all the pro-mets know...you don't issue invests on extratropical systems. It even takes a long time to get an invest on a subtropical system...and sometimes too long to get an invest (well...longer than we would like) on a tropical system.

They came back with the reply that the NHC wanted to ""investigate" the system off east coast with our microwave products"...which means they are testing the microwave imagery on the low.

So instead of just testing the microwave imagery they had to make up an Invest? This is our government at it's best. I Wonder how many extra dollars this little additive cost? If you have to answer inquiring questions. It's time and money.

I also find it interesting that they chose the day after the strongest flare in seven months to run this test. Is this the best cold core low we have had to test this imagery out this spring or winter?



Jim

[Scott_inVA]

Cold Core... I cannot believe the attention this thing is getting, LOL.

From my view it is getting attention because it is cold core and coincides with other events:

TPC errantly sends out email announcing a "Cuban" TD.

WWL...an major broadcaster goes on-air telling their Friday evening audience there is a Tropical Depression off western Cuba. The station is in NOLA and immediately triggers a firestorm of public concern (heck, I'm in VA and received email from people in NOLA asking what is going on).

This Low is not tropical but NRL gives it a tropical Invest number. I'm not inside the loop to know why, but typically when TPC/NHC is testing equipment or runs training, the Invest will will get a test number; perhaps in this case, 89L.

I consider this a real *test* Invest in that models initialized on an actual low pressure center, despite it being non-tropical as opposed to a drill or computer tropical cyclone. Consider it Spring Training!

It is interesting to note the knee-jerk reaction of folks here and the general public in NOLA with the "announcement" of a mere TD. This, may actually be a positive sign in that for the first time in decades the American public may actually take seriously the threat posed by a landfalling TC. I'd suspect the first credible CONUS threat will trigger near panic (not just the public but FEMA and the TV networks). This will be an interesting year.

As an aside, I noticed the storm preparedness pages on my site have had over 4,000 unique visits this year. I'd guess before hurricane season last year it was around 700.

Things are different in our post-Katrina world. Everyone is jumpy.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Home of the real model maps in 2006
Lexington, VA

[Rainband]

Yes, last year really changed thingsin terms of complacent behavior. They say that something good comes out of something bad. After last year people will hopefully take these storms more seriously. I think this is evidence that they will.

[MiamiensisWx]

Could this mean that people may also take Category One systems/tropical storms more seriously, too?

[Scott_inVA]

Could this mean that people may also take Category One systems/tropical storms more seriously, too?

Everyone in the general public? No.

My recent experience doing school and civic group presentations about TCs certainly convinces me people have a new found curiousity and respect for hurricanes. Most people are clueless as to the S-S scale...named storms get attention. I think the recent Hurricane Conference bears this out as well.

But, bet your bottom dollar when the first named storm puts a "cone of probability" on the CONUS that the networks, FEMA and the Red Cross will start a feeding frenzy. If it is in the GOM you can also count on gas going up 20 cents a gallon... but now it will be *before* landfall.

Scott

[HURAKAN]

FIGHTING!!!

[sunny]

You know Scott, people here along the Gulf Coast are SO jumpy it is unbelievable. I had people coming up to me at work wanting info about this "storm" that was expected to move into the Gulf and then to the Northern Gulf Coast. Of course I came to the board to see what I could find.....

[senorpepr]

So instead of just testing the microwave imagery they had to make up an Invest? This is our government at it's best. I Wonder how many extra dollars this little additive cost? If you have to answer inquiring questions. It's time and money.

I also find it interesting that they chose the day after the strongest flare in seven months to run this test. Is this the best cold core low we have had to test this imagery out this spring or winter?

Jim

Yes, they had to make up an invest to proper test this imagery. By making an invest, the process becomes more automated, thus less time wasted on a test. Secondly, it gives the crew at NRL a chance to test out their procedures on creating an invest. You can't really say any time or money was wasted in this... unless you personally know how things operate at NRL.

As for the comment about the flare... You know I am not going to attack your methodology on the connection between space and terrestrial weather. However... I will say this: do you really think the crew at NRL or at the NHC even knows about the solar flare? It is a pure coincident. Solar flares will not affect or trigger any tests that these two agencies run. To think so is sorely mistaken.

Cold Core... I cannot believe the attention this thing is getting, LOL.

Did you read what others have posted? This is a test. This is only a test.

[CrazyC83]

Could this mean that people may also take Category One systems/tropical storms more seriously, too?

With heightened awareness in general, I think it spreads to here too. I think EVERY simple Invest will fill up at least 10-20 pages...and they will be tracked and predicted like any tropical storm.

[SouthFloridawx]

I just found this from 2:30 marine forecast from Wally Barnes, TPC/NHS:

...AT THE SURFACE...DEVELOPING STORM LOW CENTER AT 33N67W 1004 MB DRIFT SE. CAA STEADILY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WHILE GULFSTREAM HEAT CONTENT CAN ONLY EXACERBATE CONDITIONS. GALE AND STORM CONDITIONS REMAIN N OF FORECAST AREA...BUT LONG FETCH ON W SIDE OF LOW PRES CENTER WILL BRING HIGHER SEAS THAN NWW3 SOLUTION. NEVERTHELESS...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND LOW PRES CENTER AND TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED EXPECTED TO INCREASE WIND ON ERN QUADRANTS TO GALE FORCE...JUST E OF FORECAST AREA... FOR SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...12 HRS...BEFORE CENTER DRIFTS N OF 31N.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...COLD FRONT JUST ENTERED NW GULF WITH ALL NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS IT MOVES E AND WEAKENS RAPIDLY WHEN UPPER CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE.

CARIBBEAN TRADES EASE OFF AS GRADIENT DECREASES WITH ATLC LOW PRES/COLD FRONT RUNNING JUST N OF PUERTO RICO.

I'm glad those sailors I mentioned yesterday have postponed leaving until Monday!
http://www.carib1500.com/

This quote could have been taken out of context by some readers, as I posted it in the poll "A possible system????????" right after saying: "my vote: not even, it's a non-tropical low, likely a gale"

Who took it out of context? I posted this to quote you after reading it because I wanted to give you credit for posting it first as many here did not. Anyway no one took it the wrong way and it was used to explain what was going on. Next time I will not quote it and just post it myself. I have a little bit better judgement to know if something will provoke people to start to freak out. Either way sorry you were offended by the post,

I think people along the gulf coast are going to take things more seriously. I don't think that people in Houston are going to take it seriously and if threatend again, a lot will not evacuate. Elsewhere, yes the media, fema and the red cross will be looking at every tropical system with a magnifying glass and a bright light. Last year changed hurricane seasons for us here in the united states for years to come.

[Jim Hughes]

So instead of just testing the microwave imagery they had to make up an Invest? This is our government at it's best. I Wonder how many extra dollars this little additive cost? If you have to answer inquiring questions. It's time and money.

I also find it interesting that they chose the day after the strongest flare in seven months to run this test. Is this the best cold core low we have had to test this imagery out this spring or winter?

Jim

Yes, they had to make up an invest to proper test this imagery. By making an invest, the process becomes more automated, thus less time wasted on a test. Secondly, it gives the crew at NRL a chance to test out their procedures on creating an invest. You can't really say any time or money was wasted in this... unless you personally know how things operate at NRL.

As for the comment about the flare... You know I am not going to attack your methodology on the connection between space and terrestrial weather. However... I will say this: do you really think the crew at NRL or at the NHC even knows about the solar flare? It is a pure coincident. Solar flares will not affect or trigger any tests that these two agencies run. To think so is sorely mistaken.

I will PM you some comments and leave it off the public board. Not about you mind you. Just trying to explain something.

Can't win by putting it out here.


Jim

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Looks like convection is forming over the center...Maybe it is trying to become troipcal? But the sst's appear to cold...

[CHRISTY]

WHAT A HUGE SPIN.....GALE CENTER FOR REAL!