Dry May is certain

[boca]

It looks like a dry May for S Florida atleast the first part of it. I know we beat this to death but since May is tomorrow I thought I bring it up. As far as tropical activity goes their should be a forecast due out at the end of May from on the steering pattern setup which should be interesting from one of the private sector offices I just can't remember from which office.

[MiamiensisWx]

A dry May has NOTHING to do with Florida hurricane hits. There are just so many variables...

[cycloneye]

As far as tropical activity goes their should be a forecast due out at the end of May from on the steering pattern setup which should be interesting from one of the private sector offices I just can't remember from which office.

On May 31 the folks of Colorado State University will do that steering pattern forecast.

[CHRISTY]

yes iam very much lookin forward to Bill Grays update on may 31.DONT FORGET ABOUT NOAA'S UPDATE COMING IN A FEW WEEKS!

[MiamiensisWx]

Me, too. I can't wait for the steering patterns forecast.

[CHRISTY]

Me, too. I can't wait for the steering patterns forecast.

its gonna be interesting....i say the steering patterns he may lay out will be similar to 2004-2005?we just have to wait and see what develops in the coming months.

[MiamiensisWx]

By the way, factors like this may well have a great impact every year - even on the season. Here's a great topic on another site.

[CHRISTY]

actually come to think of it i think it may not matter if we have a strong ridge or not i think this season WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THE PEOPLE ARE ANTICIPATING...

[MiamiensisWx]

Huh? Is there a reason you may not like the link I posted?

[Scorpion]

I doubt the steering current forecast will be very accurate, especially since this is the first time it will be done. But more often than not, a dry May does preclude Florida landfallers.

[MiamiensisWx]

Scorpion, I think it depends on the setup and how long it lasts more than anything else. If a particular pattern persists into, say, August, it MAY mean Florida may be under the gun in some respect; however, it depends on the setup, various factors, and how it persists.

[Scorpion]

A pattern doesn't have to be firmly in place. It's all about the timing of the troughs and the hurricane itself.

[CHRISTY]

Huh? Is there a reason you may not like the link I posted?

OH NO ITS COOL! its just that i really hope people dont fall asleep after hearing bill gray droped his numbers a bit in april .because actually that was the highest forcast as far as numbers go ive seen him put out in APRIL.it only takes (ONE) to destroy a community!so iam just expecting an active season how active NOW ONE CAN TELL U THAT.

[MiamiensisWx]

Yes, Scorpion, but patterns (or setup factors) nearly always have SOME say in outcomes.

[CHRISTY]

I doubt the steering current forecast will be very accurate, especially since this is the first time it will be done. But more often than not, a dry May does preclude Florida landfallers.

THATS EXACTLY MY POINT!

[MiamiensisWx]

What matters most is what the pattern, setup, and factors are when a storm is actually OUT THERE.

[CHRISTY]

to be honest i expect wilma records will be broken this year again.its gonna be tuff,but after what happend in 2005 nothing surprises me anymore.

[CHRISTY]

those temps in the carribean and the gulf of mexico really worry me because if conditions go right we may have a monster in their sometime this season.

[spinfan4eva]

Dry may means nothing, nada... Look at last year, fla was hit a few times and may was rather wet...
2005 May 15 Fla KBDI

Full Image
http://i48.photobucket.com/albums/f206/ ... i51505.gif

[CHRISTY]

I think that this shows this year's atlantic season may be very active...it shows that the atlantic has much higher chances for tropical formation than the East Pacific.



This is the cimatological (NORMAL) probability....