Dry May is certain

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looks like the April Showers bring May Flowers turned into April Droughts bring May Fires.

[boca]

I think our dry Spring here in Florida will have an affect on which direction the storms will head based on the strength our the high that's keeping us so dry.Not saying Florida will be hit ,but their is a correlation on steering patterns which will come into play during hurricane season from the dry pattern were in.

[CHRISTY]

I think our dry Spring here in Florida will have an affect on which direction the storms will head based on the strength our the high that's keeping us so dry.Not saying Florida will be hit ,but their is a correlation on steering patterns which will come into play during hurricane season from the dry pattern were in.

yea boca i also think there is a correlation between the dry weather we are having down here in the southeast and future steering patterns.its gonna be interesting for sure to see what NOAA'S update will look like in a few weeks,and bill gray's update at the end of may.

[CHRISTY]

I found this 6 week Drought Animation....

[gatorcane]

I think our dry Spring here in Florida will have an affect on which direction the storms will head based on the strength our the high that's keeping us so dry.Not saying Florida will be hit ,but their is a correlation on steering patterns which will come into play during hurricane season from the dry pattern were in.

There certainly is a correlation. In fact, last year I predicted a storm from the SW because May was not really dry and the steering patterns were incredibly weak with no easterlies. In 2004, the easterlies were exactly the opposite - abnormally strong - I knew something was awry even in May - the in came the 3 ladies.

By the end of May, we will have a better idea of the steering patterns. Here will be my predictions:

1) Dry May and prevalent easterlies => South Florida watch the East
2) Wet May and weak easterlies => South Florida watch the South and West.

There are 2 other permutations of course. Since the Bermuda High was rearing its ugly head in March and some of April my prediction is we will see a dry May and strong easterlies but not as strong as 2004 so I think in 30 days from now I will be predicting:

South Florida watch the east this year.

[Audrey2Katrina]

to be honest i expect wilma records will be broken this year again.its gonna be tuff,but after what happend in 2005 nothing surprises me anymore.

Of course anything is possible; but I seriously doubt that!

A2K

[Ivan14]

I also expect a year similar to 2004. Just a little more then 15 named storms more like 19 is my guess.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I think over 20 storms will form, especially in the GOM.

[TampaFl]

NOUS42 KMFL 012047 AAA
PNSMFL
FLZ063-066>075-020400-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
450 PM EDT MON MAY 01 2006

...ABNORMALLY DRY SPRING CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

APRIL WAS ANOTHER VERY DRY MONTH OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
CONTINUE TO BE EXTREMELY DRY...WITH NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND
RECORDING NO MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION DURING THE ENTIRE MONTH
(NAPLES ONLY MEASURED A TRACE). IN FACT...NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND
HAVE ONLY SEEN 0.17 AND 0.13 INCHES OF RAIN RESPECTIVELY SINCE
FEBRUARY 6TH. THE 0.08 INCHES OF RAIN AT NAPLES FOR THE COMBINED
MONTHS OF MARCH AND APRIL IS THE SECOND DRIEST MARCH/APRIL
COMBINATION ON RECORD.

HERE ARE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE MAIN OBSERVING STATIONS IN
SOUTH FLORIDA:

NAPLES REGIONAL... TRACE (1.99 INCHES BELOW NORMAL)
4TH DRIEST APRIL ON RECORD

MIAMI INTERNATIONAL... 0.23 INCHES (3.13 INCHES BELOW NORMAL)
5TH DRIEST APRIL ON RECORD

FORT LAUDERDALE... 1.49 INCHES (2.42 INCHES BELOW NORMAL)
WEST PALM BEACH... 4.69 INCHES (1.12 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL)

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE RECORDED LESS
THAN AN INCH OF RAIN SINCE MARCH 1ST. SO FAR IN 2006...MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA HAS ONLY SEEN LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL TO
DATE...WITH AREAS FROM FAR WESTERN BROWARD COUNTY TO COLLIER COUNTY
ONLY RECEIVING LESS THAN 30 PERCENT OF THE YEAR TO DATE NORMAL.

APRIL OBSERVATIONS FROM OTHER LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA (IN INCHES):

OASIS (EASTERN COLLIER COUNTY)... 0.10 (4TH DRIEST APRIL ON RECORD)

MOORE HAVEN (GLADES COUNTY)... 0.18 (5TH DRIEST APRIL ON RECORD)

CLEWISTON (HENDRY COUNTY)... 0.20

OPA-LOCKA AIRPORT (MIAMI-DADE) 0.34

DEVILS GARDEN (HENDRY COUNTY)... 0.40 (10TH DRIEST APRIL ON RECORD)

HIALEAH (MIAMI-DADE COUNTY)... 0.43 (4TH DRIEST APRIL ON RECORD)

PEMBROKE PINES (BROWARD COUNTY)...0.44

40 MILE BEND (COLLIER COUNTY)... 0.58 (11TH DRIEST APRIL ON RECORD)

ORTONA (GLADES COUNTY)... 0.62

MIAMI BEACH (MIAMI-DADE COUNTY)...0.66 (14TH DRIEST APRIL ON RECORD)

FLAMINGO (MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY) 0.79

HOLLYWOOD (BROWARD COUNTY)... 0.98

LOXAHATCHEE (PALM BEACH COUNTY)...1.42

SOUTH BAY (PALM BEACH COUNTY)... 1.43

NORTH MIAMI BEACH (MIAMI-DADE)... 1.71

PERRINE (MIAMI-DADE COUNTY)... 2.47

CANAL POINT (PALM BEACH COUNTY)...2.57

THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALL WEEK...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A CONTINUED HIGH THREAT OF WILDFIRES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. ALL PERSONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE
INCREASED FIRE DANGER AND TAKE NECESSARY MEASURES TO PREVENT
WILDFIRES.

THE SOUTH FLORIDA RAINY SEASON DOES NOT TYPICALLY BEGIN UNTIL THE
LAST HALF OF MAY. THEREFORE THIS DRY WEATHER PATTERN COULD LAST FOR
AT LEAST ANOTHER TWO WEEKS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, AS WELL AS THE LATEST WARNINGS, FORECASTS, AND
OBSERVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE AT http://WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.

$$

MOLLEDA

[TampaFl]

NOUS42 KEYW 011004
PNSEYW

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
600 AM EDT MON MAY 01 2006

...SECOND DRIEST APRIL ON RECORD IN KEY WEST...

KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECEIVED ONLY 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN IN
APRIL OF 2006. THIS WAS THE SECOND DRIEST APRIL ON RECORD ONLY
BEHIND APRIL OF 1959...WHICH WAS THE ONLY MONTH EVER IN WHICH NO
RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST.

KEY WEST HAS RECEIVED VERY LITTLE RAINFALL SINCE NOVEMBER 21
2005...WHEN 0.66 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT THE AIRPORT. IN THE 160 DAYS
SINCE THEN A TOTAL OF ONLY 1.05 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN RECORDED.
THIS IS EASILY THE DRIEST SUCH STRETCH ON RECORD IN KEY WEST. THE
NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD NOVEMBER 22 THROUGH APRIL 30 IS 10.47
INCHES.

THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR THIS SPRING CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL TOTALS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY.

$$

LEE



[CHRISTY]

DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHFLORIDA TO PERSIST....


000
FXUS62 KMFL 020820
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
420 AM EDT TUE MAY 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL SINK SOUTHWEST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. SO THE
WEATHER SHOULD BE NICE OVER THE AREA FOR TODAY.

WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP INTO THE MID 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY...WHILE THE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ABLE TO COOL DOWN TO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS TO THE LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE LOW TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD
AGAIN SEE NEAR RECORD LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR TONIGHT WHICH ARE:

WEDNESDAY LOWS

IMMOKALEE 52 - 1977
DEVIL GARDEN 45 - 1999
LA BELLE 50 - 1987
EVERGLADES CITY 55 - 1965
40 MILE BEND 53 - 1965
CLEWISTON 54 - 1987

SO PLAN ON MENTIONING VERY COLD TEMPS AGAIN FOR THE INTERIOR AREAS
AWAY FROM THE LAKE FOR TONIGHT.

THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPS SHOULD THEN START A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP THE SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR AND THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH FLORIDA BEFORE STALLING OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
THIS WEEKEND FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SO HAVE KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND.

THE FRONT WILL THEN DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE
HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO WORK BY WEST INTO THE
SUNSHINE STATE. SO HAVE KEPT THE CONDITIONS DRY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN FROM THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS...AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS BY TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE DOWN TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY TUESDAY
AND REMAIN AT THESE SPEEDS THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THEY SWING FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE AGAIN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THIS WEEKEND DO TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING A LITTLE BIT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH.

THE SWELLS AT BUOY 41010 WAS AT 9 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
SWELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SWELLS ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO SLOWLY
DECREASE FROM 3 FEET THIS MORNING TO 1 FOOT BY THIS EVENING.

THEREFORE...THE SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM WATERS WILL DECREASE FROM
5 TO 7 FEET DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GULF STREAM
SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE TO LESS THAN 6 FEET BY
LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
SO PLAN ON HAVING A SCA UP FOR THE SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM TILL
NOON TIME AND THEN A SCEC FOR REST OF THE DAY...AND A SCEC UP FOR
THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF PALM BEACH UNTIL NOON TODAY.

FOR REST THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK.

[boca]

Rainy season starts in 2 weeks for Florida. My feeling is rainy season won't rear its head until the first 2 weeks in June, with this pattern that won't give up the goat.

[CHRISTY]

(NO) RAIN IN SIGHT FOR SOUTHFLORIDA....

FXUS62 KMFL 030726
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
326 AM EDT WED MAY 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO SINK SOUTH TODAY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...AS A SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAN STATES MOVES
EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR LATE THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. BUT NO RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH REST OF
THE WEEK.

[boca]

"I'm in the Desert with a Horse with No Name" meaing Florida.

[EDR1222]

It will be interesting to see what Dr. Gray and his group talk about with the steering current forecast. I remember in 04, there was concern during the early summer of a strong persistent Bermuda high elbowing into Florida. As others have mentioned, it is all about timing once a storm begins approaching.

[Camille_2_Katrina]

when will his report come out?
soon?

[Patrick99]

Rainy season starts in 2 weeks for Florida. My feeling is rainy season won't rear its head until the first 2 weeks in June, with this pattern that won't give up the goat.

I don't think I can remember a rainy season that took that long to materialize.....1998? That's the one that comes to mind for me.

I've always wondered what the trigger is that starts the "rainy season"....when does it begin? I know it's traditionally around Memorial Day, but what is different about that time? Why doesn't it start now? Is it just not hot enough yet for rising air to break the cap?

[CHRISTY]

when will his report come out?
soon?

BILL GRAY'S REPORT...MAY31

NOAA'S REPORT...MAY22

[boca]

Rainy season starts in 2 weeks for Florida. My feeling is rainy season won't rear its head until the first 2 weeks in June, with this pattern that won't give up the goat.

I don't think I can remember a rainy season that took that long to materialize.....1998? That's the one that comes to mind for me.

I've always wondered what the trigger is that starts the "rainy season"....when does it begin? I know it's traditionally around Memorial Day, but what is different about that time? Why doesn't it start now? Is it just not hot enough yet for rising air to break the cap?

I think the only ingredient missing is the opressive humidity,right now its hot but not humid so no thunderstorm development.

[MiamiensisWx]

On a side note, ridging doesn't seem to be as persistent or strong as it was over the past few previous months. Also, we are seeing some more thunderstorms now. Does anyone agree?