SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific #2

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Weatherfreak000

#81 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue May 02, 2006 5:35 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The central and eastern Atlatnic is cooler this year...With a slightly cooler Caribbean. On the other hand the Gulf of Mexico is on fire...

Last year Azores high was so strong that it sheared systems+sucked SAL into the Atlantic. Which killed the Eastern Atlatnic season. This year could have a weaker Azores high but a strong Bermuda high. Which will likely have a 2004 like pattern with storms forming strongly out over the eastern then recurving. But if they get under the Bermuda watch out florida.

The Gulf is going to be a blood bath.



Yeah, I had a good feeling we were gonna see a signficiant BOC Season this year and it's looking pretty ugly down there.

Although the water is still not really as warm as last year I expect an exceptional change coming, that will likely make both years very comparable.

Guess we'll have to find out, however
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#82 Postby windycity » Tue May 02, 2006 6:40 pm

as warm as the GOM is now, imagine what it will look like come June. With the right conditions, we could see another monster storm explode like 05. I remember watching Katrinas mbs drop, and drop in a matter of minutes. I kept shaking my head in disbelief... how i pray that doesnt happen again this year.
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CHRISTY

#83 Postby CHRISTY » Tue May 02, 2006 9:59 pm

Here is a prime example that the gulf of mexico is warmer this year then last year.atleast right now.

gulf of mexico on april 30 2005.

Image

the gulf of mexico on april 30 2006

Image
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#84 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue May 02, 2006 10:00 pm

We could have a major hurricane right now! :eek:
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#85 Postby skysummit » Tue May 02, 2006 10:08 pm

Now that's a huge difference. Are we sure the equipment was calibrated the same in both years? I just can't see it being that much warmer out there right now! Holy cow!
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CHRISTY

#86 Postby CHRISTY » Tue May 02, 2006 10:10 pm

yep kinda scary....it makes u wonder what are these SST'S gonna look like in july,august and september.
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#87 Postby skysummit » Tue May 02, 2006 10:12 pm

CHRISTY wrote:yep kinda scary....it makes u wonder what are these SST'S gonna look like in july,august and september.


They might have to add additional colors to the scale by the time August comes :D
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#88 Postby Ivan14 » Wed May 03, 2006 9:22 am

That is unbelievable. I herd on fox news that we will probably have less storms then last year but the hurricanes have potential to be stronger at landfall. Due to the hotter SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf stream.
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#89 Postby GeneratorPower » Wed May 03, 2006 9:49 am

Christy, where were those graphics from? The scales look the same but I'd like to see who makes them.
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#90 Postby skysummit » Wed May 03, 2006 10:33 am

GP...they look like they come from here.
http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/sst.html
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#91 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed May 03, 2006 10:36 am

Yeah, I was wondering if the scales are the same also. Can we verify because I'm in disbelief.
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
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CHRISTY

#92 Postby CHRISTY » Wed May 03, 2006 11:29 am

skysummit wrote:GP...they look like they come from here.
http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/sst.html
yes iam also in shock....but yea thats the web site were i got those maps....
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#93 Postby GeneratorPower » Wed May 03, 2006 11:35 am

These appear to be corrupted. Clicking on the Apr30 data gives a map of Apr03.
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#94 Postby GeneratorPower » Wed May 03, 2006 11:39 am

Ok... got it straight now. See here:

I took a look at April 27th because when you go to the May 3 diagrams, the scales are different for 2006 and 2005.

The following have the same scales and are correct.

The 7-day average map for 2006

http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/averag ... 0_mult.png

The 7-day average map for 2005

http://srbdata.jhuapl.edu/d0043/avhrr/g ... 1_mult.png
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#95 Postby GeneratorPower » Wed May 03, 2006 11:41 am

According to these maps, the gulf is a good 3-5 deg F higher than April 27th last year.

Now, to check some buoy data for the same time, same years for verification...
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CHRISTY

#96 Postby CHRISTY » Wed May 03, 2006 11:47 am

so then they are correct right? LOSTS OF FUEL THIS YEAR.....
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Camille_2_Katrina

#97 Postby Camille_2_Katrina » Wed May 03, 2006 11:49 am

CHRISTY wrote:There's something weird going on with this website....

these are yesterdays SST'S!dont they look much different?

http://img3.freeimagehosting.net/image.php?aab0747cc8.png

iam not at my PC so this is the best i could do with this image....


that looks MUCH cooler
maybe all these gale winds we had the last few days
diluted the heat content of the surface water.
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#98 Postby GeneratorPower » Wed May 03, 2006 11:56 am

Buoy #42036

April 27, 2005: Water Temp 19.5 C (67.1 F)

April 27, 2006: Water Temp 24.1 C (75.3 F)

That's a difference of 7.2 F from one year to another.

Ok, I'm convinced. The charts are accurate. Granted, this is just one data point but combined with the rest of the charts, I'm satisfied that we've got the scales correct.

Guys, this is significant. Water temps don't change that drastically unless something is causing it.
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CHRISTY

#99 Postby CHRISTY » Wed May 03, 2006 11:57 am

maybe but i doupt it...those temps will now get warmer as time goes by.
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#100 Postby GeneratorPower » Wed May 03, 2006 11:57 am

There's a great little program for converting F to C and other temps. I stuck it on my hosting site. Feel free to download...

http://www.huntsvillegenerator.com/convert.exe
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