GFS showing tropical development?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looking at the GFS this afternoon...something unusual caught my eye. Take a look at that low pressure feature in the northern Gulf and tell me if you think it could be depicting something tropical:

12Z GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml - hr. 240

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _252.shtml - hr. 252

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml - hr. 264

yes, this is a long way out, but if it verifies, it would be a crazy event. First, it would likely start as a severe weather maker over Texas, then transition into a TD over the northern Gulf and finally make landfall on the west coast of Florida as a TS. Would be weird for May in deed (and it would also be hitting already hard hit areas).

[CHRISTY]

Looks interesting but its a ways out....

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

True. 240 hr is what; about 10 days? The models have a hard time agreeing on anything 5 days out or over usually, sometimes less.

[joseph01]

Well..it's got to start sometime. And being anxious about it, this is a good a reason to start crying havoc as any. Hurricane!!!

[george_r_1961]

A TS in May in the GOM??? Someone issue a Bear Watch ..quick! Seriously though we will keep an eye on that area to see if this pans out.

[rainstorm]

all i see is more rain for virginia with thunderstoms for the gulf coast. the pattern those maps show are the total opposite needed for tropical development. i would say those maps are showing nothing at all

[george_r_1961]

all i see is more rain for virginia with thunderstoms for the gulf coast. the pattern those maps show are the total opposite needed for tropical development. i would say those maps are showing nothing at all

Agreed..the environment would have to change dramatically.

[AJC3]

It's a baroclinic low. You have pressures lowering across the northern GOMEX ahead of a 500MB short wave trough, as well as in the LF quad of a 60-80kt jet streak at 250MB over the GOMEX. Low to mid level temp profiles are decidedly *not* barotropic at all. This simply looks like a baroclinic spot low that opens up into a trough as it moves east.

In fact, the vort/VV/QPF profiles have a sort of "bullseye" look to them that leads me to believe that the GFS's notriorious convective feedback problem might be playing a role here as well.


my $ 0.00000002
Tony

[Thierry_Gironde]

I'm having issues loading the site for some reason...is anyone else having trouble with the NCO site(s)?

[wxman57]

You might note the 60-90 kt westerly winds aloft over the "TC". It's nothing, just a frontal wave in a high-shear environment. Also, the 18Z run shows absolutely nothing in the way of a low at 240 hrs.

[Epsilon_Fan]

lol, we're taking some long shots in the dark for a storm now?

[meteorologyman]

Looking at the GFS this afternoon...something unusual caught my eye. Take a look at that low pressure feature in the northern Gulf and tell me if you think it could be depicting something tropical:

12Z GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml - hr. 240

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _252.shtml - hr. 252

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml - hr. 264


yes, this is a long way out, but if it verifies, it would be a crazy event. First, it would likely start as a severe weather maker over Texas, then transition into a TD over the northern Gulf and finally make landfall on the west coast of Florida as a TS. Would be weird for May in deed (and it would also be hitting already hard hit areas).

Can someone plz post the images, i'm getting the (Can not find sever)

[meteorologyman]

Thats strange its working now, it works on the quote but not on the original

[Air Force Met]

Looking at the GFS this afternoon...something unusual caught my eye. Take a look at that low pressure feature in the northern Gulf and tell me if you think it could be depicting something tropical:

12Z GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml - hr. 240

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _252.shtml - hr. 252

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml - hr. 264

yes, this is a long way out, but if it verifies, it would be a crazy event. First, it would likely start as a severe weather maker over Texas, then transition into a TD over the northern Gulf and finally make landfall on the west coast of Florida as a TS. Would be weird for May in deed (and it would also be hitting already hard hit areas).

Dude...it's an unstable wave on a front. Notice the 1) Upper level winds show it is in a baroclinic pattern and 2) The thickness chart shows the inverted trof in the thickness pattern over the low...which is classic for a baroclinic low.

60 knots over a LOW? NOT tropical at all.

Also...when thickness lines are crossing the low like that...it shows advection is taking place...and that means it is a baroclinic...cold core system.

[MiamiensisWx]

This definately WON'T become tropical or subtropical at all most likely. This is very typical for this time of year. Still, might as well keep an eye on it for the sake of this thread.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This definately WON'T become tropical or subtropical at all most likely. This is very typical for this time of year. Still, might as well keep an eye on it for the sake of this thread.

yeah especially since early season storms usually form off of low pressure areas on the southern end of fronts. This is still days out too, so what may look like it has no chance now could very well be a different situation down the road.

[MiamiensisWx]

I agree... for now, I don't expect development. However, I am definately going to watch it, as there is a slight chance of development occurring, and that might occur later on.

[Extremeweatherguy]

well...I just checked out the 18Z GFS and it looks like it has completely reversed it's thinking (not surprising). It still has moisture in the Gulf, but the bulls eye of moisture and the low pressure area seemed to have disappeared.

EDIT: I just saw that Wxman57 had said the same thing a few posts up.

[CHRISTY]

nothing is going to come out of this.....i cant really see anything on those GFS maps.give or take 2-3 more weeks things might change especially with all that FUEL in the GULF OF MEXICO.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Low shear is expected in the next 2 days maybe it will stay around long enough so this system could form.