MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0735
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0128 AM CDT WED MAY 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 279...
   
   VALID 030628Z - 030700Z
   
   MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS APPEARS TO BE IN DECLINE.
   ISOLATED STORMS COULD STILL ATTAIN SEVERE LEVELS OVERNIGHT BUT
   ADDITIONAL WATCHES DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AFTER EXPIRATION OF WW 279
   WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   EXTENSIVE ARCING LINES OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM SERN OK TO SCNTRL TX
   EARLY TODAY HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
   HOUR OR SO WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES AND VIL MAGNITUDE DECREASING
   STEADILY. STRATIFORM RAIN REGION WITH AN EMBEDDED MCV EXISTS ACROSS
   SERN OK. ANOTHER LARGE COLD POOL/STRATIFORM RAIN REGION WAS ALSO
   SITUATED ACROSS SCNTRL TX. DESPITE LACK OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR
   STRONGER VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE REGION...SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
   REMAINS ROBUST AND WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF ENHANCED
   MESOSCALE ASCENT NEAR COLD POOL BOUNDARIES FAVORABLY ORIENTED TO THE
   LOW LEVEL FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS...AND
   FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MCV OVER SERN OK...COULD
   ALSO PROMOTE LOCAL INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. GIVEN MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...A COUPLE OF
   STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR WIND. GREATER STORM
   ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER.. APPEARS LIMITED AND NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES
   ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
   
   30779790 30399949 31089913 32179800 33159745 33959693
   34589614 35079574 34929500 33039544 31779572 31119722

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0736
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0259 AM CDT WED MAY 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SWRN IA AND NWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 030759Z - 031000Z
   
   STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY APPEAR TO BE GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM
   SWRN IA INTO NERN KS AND NWRN MO. AREAS EAST OF WW 281 MAY REQUIRE A
   SEVERE TSTM WATCH LATER THIS MORNING.
   
   STRONG COLD FRONT WAS ADVANCING ESEWD ACROSS ERN NEB/KS EARLY TODAY
   WITH LARGE PRESSURE RISES OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT. AIR MASS AHEAD
   OF THE FRONT WAS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F...AND
   STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF
   2000 J/KG. A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
   LATEST DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATING AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT ORIENTED
   NW TO SE...FROM EXTREME SWRN IA ACROSS NRN MO. RELATIVELY WEAK CAP
   SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EAST WITH THE COLD
   FRONT...WHILE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT ALSO
   SUPPORTS STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MO.
   
   VWP AND PROFILER DATA WERE SHOWING 30-40KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW EDGING
   SWD/SEWD ATOP THE POOL OF PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY FROM KS INTO NRN
   MO. HOWEVER...STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW APPEARS TO LAG THE FRONT...AND
   IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. GIVEN SOMEWHAT
   MODEST FLOW...GREATER SHEAR AND MORE INTENSE STORM MODE MAY REMAIN
   LIMITED. HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS APPEAR TO SUGGEST STORM INTENSITY
   WAS INCREASING AS FRONTAL CIRCULATION ACTS ON STRONGER INSTABILITY.
   IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND RESULTS IN UPSCALE ENHANCEMENT AND AN
   INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM RESULTING MCS...A NEW WATCH MAY BE
   NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MO IN ABOUT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DMX...EAX...OAX...
   
   39259479 40059527 40819551 40699398 39259239 38739267
   38759491

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0737
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0922 AM CDT WED MAY 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MO AND PARTS OF WRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 031422Z - 031545Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN AREAS AFFECTED
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS
   CENTRAL/ERN MO INTO PARTS OF WRN IL.  TEMPORAL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   BE SMALL...GIVEN EXPECTED DIURNAL DECREASE IN SWLY LLJ.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED MCS LOCATED
   OVER CENTRAL/NRN MO...WITH AREA WSR-88D VWP DATA AND WIND PROFILERS
   INDICATING A DEEP COLD POOL /SFC-3 KM/ WITH LEADING EDGE DEPICTED BY
   WIND SHIFT WITH LINE OF STRONGER STORMS EXTENDING FROM MONROE TO
   CAMDEN COUNTIES.  SURFACE STREAMLINES SUGGEST THE SWWD EXTENSION OF
   THIS WIND SHIFT HAD BECOME ILL-DEFINED AT 14Z...BUT HAD EXTENDED
   TOWARD VERNON COUNTY MO AT 13Z.  AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM INTO WRN IL IS
   STABLE SUGGESTING ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS THESE
   STORMS SPREADS EWD.  HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED MOST OF
   THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED.  BEST POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED
   STORMS/GREATER SEVERE THREAT TO BE WITH NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
   ALONG THE SRN FLANK IN CENTRAL MO AS SURFACE HEATING AIDS IN FURTHER
   BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.
   
   SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW LLJ WEAKENING BY LATE MORNING.  THUS...
   OVERALL SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...
   
   37969333 38709257 39569210 39729160 39649005 38338939
   37629098 37839309

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1246 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO/NRN AR/PARTS OF SRN IL...FAR WRN KY...NWRN
   TN/SERN KS AND NERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 031746Z - 031845Z
   
   WW WILL BE REQUIRED SHORTLY.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT...EXPECTED TO INCREASE
   IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS SRN MO...AND
   THEN WSWWD INTO SERN KS/NERN OK.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS/MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED LEADING EDGE OF ACTIVE MCS
   HAD MOVED EWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL IL WITH THIS BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT
   EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN/SOUTH CENTRAL MO /DENT COUNTY/...THEN WWD
   INTO SERN KS INTERSECTING THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT VICINITY ICT.  AIR
   MASS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IN SRN MO/NRN AR HAS BECOME MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE /MLCAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG/...GIVEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
   MID-UPPER 60S BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE UPPER 70S HAVE WEAKENED THE CAP WITH
   ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP VICINITY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   THIS AFTERNOON.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF LEFT OVER MCV...NOW
   LOCATED OVER WRN AR...MAY AID IN SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS WITH EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR /30-35 KT/ SUPPORT OF STORM ORGANIZATION.  GIVEN STEEP
   LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...
   
   38038980 37138839 35998903 35808980 35889274 35949540
   37219583 37569474 37609168

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS/CAPROCK VICINITY INTO SOUTHWEST
   OK/NORTH CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 032042Z - 032215Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/CAPROCK VICINITY INTO SOUTHWEST
   OK/NORTH CENTRAL TX. A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES TOWERING CU SOUTH OF CLOVIS NM IN
   SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY. THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE TIED TO
   INTERSECTION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STRONG LOW LEVEL HEATING.
   FURTHER EAST...ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER CU HAS ALSO RECENTLY
   DEVELOPED INVOF CAPROCK...WITH PERSISTENT MID LEVEL DEVELOPMENT
   MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TX. IN
   ALL...INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
   FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHWEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK/NORTH CENTRAL TX
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY/SUFFICIENT
   VERTICAL SHEAR...STORMS WILL POSE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
   WINDS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   33720319 34330241 34600087 35259789 33719795 32839891
   32460089 32470205 32910303

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0406 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO/MUCH OF AR/SRN IL/WRN KY/WRN-MIDDLE TN/NRN
   MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282...283...
   
   VALID 032106Z - 032200Z
   
   PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
   ACROSS WW/S 282/283.
   
   20Z MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT CONTINUING TO EXTEND FROM SERN
   MO SEWD THROUGH WRN-MIDDLE TN TO NWRN/WRN GA.  A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY EXTENDED GENERALLY WWD FROM SRN IL ACROSS SRN MO...WHILE A
   SECOND BOUNDARY EXTENDED SSWWD FROM SERN MO THROUGH ERN TO SRN AR.
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN MCV...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
   NRN AR /VICINITY BVX/ AND MOVING SLOWLY EWD...WILL CONTINUE TO AID
   IN ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
   BOUNDARIES.  GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
   INITIALLY FROM SERN MO/NERN AR INTO FAR SRN IL/WRN KY/WRN TN WHERE
   INSTABILITY IS THE STRONGEST /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG/. 
   
   DESPITE WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR SWD ACROSS ERN-SRN AR...STEEP LAPSE
   RATES...MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG AND ASCENT WITH MCV EXPECTED TO AID
   IN ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...
   
   33089392 34579382 35269291 35909350 36489461 38209454
   38498778 36798787 36608659 35028659 33779007 33029224

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0745
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0634 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MO/WESTERN KY/WESTERN INTO MIDDLE TN/MUCH
   OF AR/NORTHERN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282...283...
   
   VALID 032334Z - 040100Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282 CONTINUES UNTIL
   01Z...A WATCH REPLACEMENT MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
   MO AND PERHAPS NORTHERN AR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283 CONTINUES
   UNTIL 02Z.
   
   SATELLITE DIAGNOSTICS FEATURE REMNANT MCV OVER EASTERN AR. IN THE
   EASTERN PORTION OF WATCHES 282/283...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE
   ESPECIALLY FOCUSED AT THIS TIME ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS MCV AND IN
   VICINITY OF OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT CONJUNCTION...NAMELY ACROSS FAR
   SOUTHWEST KY INTO WESTERN TN AND FAR NORTHERN MS. IN THESE
   AREAS...AMBIENT AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SUPPORTIVE
   OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ACROSS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282...SUPERCELL NOW ENTERING FAR
   SOUTHWEST MO...WITH ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTH
   CENTRAL MO. AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...STORM ROTATION MAY
   CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS STORMS
   MOVE SE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MO IN THE SHORT TERM. OVERALL PRIMARY
   THREAT WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL. GIVEN SCHEDULED 01Z EXPIRATION OF WW
   282...A WATCH REISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
   MO AND PERHAPS NORTHERN AR.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   37169434 38079334 37689028 36248680 35028728 34069032
   33899241 34369286 35529253 36399334

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0638 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/S CENTRAL AND SERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284...
   
   VALID 032338Z - 040115Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF SRN KS/NRN OK.
   
   CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD OUT OF FAR SERN
   KS INTO SWRN MO/WW 282.  MEANWHILE...NEW STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
   FORM ACROSS WW 284...LIKELY DUE IN PART TO CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER AS
   A RESULT OF SHORT-WAVE RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THIS REGION.
   HOWEVER...WEAK/SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NWRN OK ATTM
   APPEARS TO BE AGITATING CU FIELD ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NWRN OK --
   INCLUDING A NEW RADAR ECHO OVER NWRN BLAINE COUNTY OK JUST S OF COLD
   FRONT. THOUGH IT APPEARS ATTM THAT GREATER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AS UVV ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING/LARGER
   UPPER TROUGH SPREADS INTO THIS REGION...MORE SUBTLE VORT MAX MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO A LOCAL INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT NEAR FRONT OVER THE
   NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
   36149995 37129819 38099456 36689464 35389994

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0747
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0720 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS/ WRN N TX NEWD INTO SWRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 285...
   
   VALID 040020Z - 040145Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW.
   
   CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS --
   INVOF COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF SWRN NM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  EXPECT
   STORMS/SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE -- AND OVERALL STORM COVERAGE TO
   INCREASE -- AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF APPROACHING
   TROUGH. 
   
   THOUGH VEERING/SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...EXPECT
   STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NON-DISCRETE...AND THUS MAIN THREAT
   WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  IN ADDITION...TENDENCY
   FOR SLOW STORM MOTION AND INCREASING STORM COVERAGE SUGGESTS THAT
   LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TX
   SOUTH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   34410297 35839776 33459768 32100284

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0748
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0750 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF AR/NORTHERN MS INTO WESTERN/MIDDLE TN AND
   FAR NORTHERN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283...
   
   VALID 040050Z - 040145Z
   
   SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283 FROM WESTERN INTO MIDDLE TN. WATCH 283
   IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.
   
   AHEAD OF MCV CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...STRONG/SEVERE
   CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS WESTERN/MIDDLE TN AND FAR
   NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL. IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
   POOL/MCS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KY/WESTERN TN...A NARROW WEDGE OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND EXTREME NORTHERN
   AL...REFERENCE 00Z NASHVILLE OBSERVED RAOB -- 1400 J/KG MLCAPE.
   MCV/COLD POOL ORGANIZATION INTO UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUGGESTS THE SEVERE
   THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDLE TN/EXTREME NORTHERN AL OVER THE
   NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...A DECREASING SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED
   VIA A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER/LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING...THUS
   IT APPEARS WW 283 WILL EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...
   
   33669103 35029172 36628692 35238623 34718719 34408859

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0749
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0946 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OK/WRN N TX AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
   TRANSPECOS REGION
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 285...
   
   VALID 040246Z - 040415Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF WW...AND SHOULD SPREAD S OF
   WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WW WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED PRIOR TO
   ITS SCHEDULED 04/04Z EXPIRATION.
   
   MCC HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO WRN N TX AND THE S
   PLAINS...WITH MOST INTENSE STORM CLUSTER -- AND MESOSCALE
   CIRCULATION CENTER -- OVER DICKENS/KING/GARZA/KENT/STONEWALL
   COUNTIES IN THE TX SOUTH PLAINS.  EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AND MEASURED WIND
   GUSTS OVER 80 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THIS AREA.  WITH SELY
   LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING...EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEAR
   AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF OUTFLOW-ENHANCED COLD FRONT MOVING SWD
   ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS.  GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY /2000 TO
   3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ AND SHEAR...SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE
   FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   32980284 35140084 35539926 34189777 33489769 32159778
   31330130 32080287

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1007 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...RIO GRANDE VALLEY
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 040307Z - 040430Z
   
   LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD E OF THE RIO GRANDE INTO TX...BUT
   WW LIKELY NOT REQUIRED AS OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH ONGOING
   CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST.
   
   LATEST RADAR SHOWS STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN
   MEXICO AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ATTM...WHERE FAVORABLY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.  THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
   FAIRLY WEAK IN THIS REGION /AROUND 20 KT/...VEERING EVIDENT IN
   LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME STORM
   ORGANIZATION. 
   
   WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD TOWARD THE TX
   BIG BEND PER LATEST WV IMAGERY...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE UVV MAY
   ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO LINGER/MOVE INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL
   COUNTRY REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A LOCAL THREAT FOR HAIL/BRIEF
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...
   
   29900166 30260042 30039927 29139857 27739902 27669971
   28260025 29020059

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0751
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1014 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO/N-CNTRL AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286...
   
   VALID 040314Z - 040445Z
   
   OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. WW 286 MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE ITS 06Z EXPIRATION TIME. AN
   ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 286.
   
   LINEAR MCS WHICH HAS HAD A HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE IS NOW INTO ERN
   PORTIONS OF WW 286. THE MCS WEAKENED IN THE PAST HOUR AS EFFECTS OF
   PREVIOUS CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY ALONG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
   HAVE WORKED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. LATEST RUC ANALYSES
   INDICATE EVEN GREATER STABILITY AND INCREASING CIN FURTHER E...THUS
   THIS WEAKENING TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE.
   
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTO NRN AR IS POSSIBLE...AT THE EDGE OF A
   30-35 KT LLJ /PER LZK AND SHV VAD PROFILERS/. HOWEVER...MID AND
   UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF MCV IN THE TN RIVER VALLEY AND
   AHEAD OF LARGE MCS IN TX PANHANDLE...WILL LIKELY MITIGATE SUSTAINED
   REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
   
   36569270 37039240 37629203 37829152 37749017 37279004
   36679024 36119076 35689160 35729248 36129301

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0752
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0126 AM CDT THU MAY 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 040626Z - 040800Z
   
   HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ARE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL
   AND NRN OK THIS MORNING. WHILE OVERALL STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE...THIS MAY OCCUR AT THE EXPENSE OF MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS. A
   WATCH IS NOT BEING PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
   
   TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
   FRONT SETTLING ACROSS NRN OK. MEANWHILE...MATURE MCS CIRCULATION WAS
   MOVING EWD FROM WCNTRL OK. BOTH THESE FEATURES...IN CONCERT WITH
   STRONG SLY LLJ...WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
   MORNING WITHIN MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A LARGER MCS
   MAY EVOLVE ACROSS NCNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THIS SYSTEM
   THEN SPREADING ESEWD. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...AND GENERALLY WEAK DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR...ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION LIMITED AND
   LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL LOW. HOWEVER... INITIAL UNDISTURBED
   CELLS...SUCH AS ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER IN MAYES
   COUNTY...AND STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS/MERGERS...SUCH AS ONGOING
   CLUSTER ON THE COLD FRONT IN PAYNE COUNTY...COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
   AND/OR BRIEF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. AT PRESENT...THE LACK OF STRONGER
   FORCING AND SHEAR SHOULD RESTRICT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. EXPECT
   HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO INCREASE OVER NCNTRL OK NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS
   MESOSCALE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS EAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
   PROMOTES ADDITIONAL SLOW-MOVING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
   
   35279658 35279686 35259763 35379811 35869851 36099852
   36419734 36469559 36299498 35639496

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0753
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0319 AM CDT THU MAY 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 287...
   
   VALID 040819Z - 040915Z
   
   MATURE MCS MOVING EWD/SEWD ACROSS NWRN TX HAS BECOME OUTFLOW
   DOMINANT ON THE SRN EDGE WITH A MARKED DECREASE IN VIL INTENSITY AND
   SHRINKING COVERAGE OF COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY. LOW LEVEL
   INFLOW INTO AND ACROSS THE ERN LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL COULD
   STILL MAINTAIN STOUT UPDRAFTS ACROSS PALO PINTO AND ERATH COUNTIES
   OVER THE NEXT HOUR. GIVEN STRONG MESOHIGH...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...
   AND WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK DEEP LAYER WLY
   FLOW...STRONG STORMS MAY MAKE IT TO THE WRN EDGE OF THE DFW
   METROPLEX IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST SEVERE
   POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TOO LOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL
   WATCH.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
   32199687 30929753 30499914 30660009 31150150 31870140
   32450014 33079900 33479816 33519750 33209736

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0754
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0416 AM CDT THU MAY 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK AND WRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 040916Z - 041215Z
   
   RAINFALL RATES...LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR...APPEAR
   POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN OK AND WRN AR THROUGH THE MORNING.
   
   VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION FUELED BY VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND FOCUSED
   ALONG SLOW MOVING AND INTERACTING MESOSCALE FEATURES COULD PRODUCE
   LOCALLY COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN EARLY TODAY. CURRENTLY...A NUMBER OF
   INTENSE STORMS HAVE TRAINED SLOWLY EAST ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT
   ACROSS NERN OK. EARLIER...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCED RAINFALL
   RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR ACROSS WAGONER COUNTY.
   MEANWHILE...A MESOLOW HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT AND WAS MOVING EAST
   ACROSS THE TULSA AREA. THIS FEATURE COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
   EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN WAGONER COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOPS WERE INDICATING NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   INTERSECTIONS SPREADING EAST INTO VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR
   MASS COVERING ERN OK. UNLIKE FARTHER WEST...STRONG MOISTURE
   TRANSPORT ON THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS BEEN RELATIVELY UNIMPEDED BY
   UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER TX WITH GPS PW VALUES OF OVER 1.5 INCHES.
   GIVEN LARGE SCALE THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE...RELATIVELY DEEP WARM CLOUD
   LAYER AROUND 2KM...AND DIURNAL MAXIMUM IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
   INTO THE SLOW MOVING MCS...LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES APPEAR
   PROBABLE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK AND WRN AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...
   
   35039387 34699447 34389528 34429673 34719693 35229647
   35759598 36209590 36219520 36199496 36019398

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0755
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1209 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN OK...NERN TX AND SWRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 041709Z - 041915Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SERN OK...NERN TX AND
   SWRN AR INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
   WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   A PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SERN OK
   THROUGH NERN TX NEAR PARIS AND SWWD INTO THE SRN PORTIONS OF N CNTRL
   TX. ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM JUST N OF JACKSON MS
   NWWD INTO SRN AR NEAR HOT SPRINGS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED
   SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...SOME THINNING IN THE CIRRUS IS RESULTING
   IN SLOW DESTABILIZATION IN THE AREA BETWEEN  THESE BOUNDARIES WHERE
   DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG
   WILL BE LIKELY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S. AN MCV WAS LOCATED
   IN SERN OK MOVING SLOWLY EWD. ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH THIS FEATURE AND WEAKENING CAP WILL PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND E OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SERN OK
   INTO NERN TX. THE STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD INTO SWRN AR.
   A MID LEVEL JET STREAK ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV IS ALSO
   CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT
   ROTATION WITHIN SOME OF THE STORMS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
   
   34619387 33619320 32959358 32779431 33159506 34459497

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0756
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0152 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTIONS OF WRN TX THROUGH EXTREME SERN NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 041852Z - 042045Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID
   TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WRN TX. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
   OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY
   21Z.
   
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF
   ABILENE WNW TO NEAR BIG SPRING AND FARTHER W TO E OF HOBBS NM. A
   DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM JUST W OF SANDERSON NWD TO W OF MIDLAND. THE
   WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. SURFACE HEATING...DEWPOINTS IN
   THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8
   C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THE
   ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS...AND THE 18Z
   RAOB FROM MIDLAND STILL SHOWED AN INVERSION BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT STRONG HEATING OF THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CAP. RECENT VISIBLE
   IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS OVER
   PORTIONS OF SWRN TX DURING THE LAST HOUR. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
   FLOW...PRESENCE OF CAP...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUGGEST
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN
   HEATING WILL HAVE WEAKENED THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO
   INITIATE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. WIND FIELDS THROUGH 3 KM
   WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR AROUND 35 KT
   THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS IMPLIED BY THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   32439910 31529943 31450150 32330349 33040341 32890148
   33049992

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0757
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0522 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AND E CENTRAL NM/TX SOUTH PLAINS
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 042222Z - 050015Z
   
   STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM...****
   ***ULUS SLOWLY INCREASING SWD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS INTO CENTRAL NM.
   WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...THOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS THIS REGION AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES
   THIS EVENING.
   
   DAYTIME HEATING OVER NERN NM HAS RESULTED IN MARGINAL
   DESTABILIZATION NEAR AND S OF COLD FRONT LYING NW-SE ACROSS THE
   AREA.  STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/NEAR
   FRONT...BUT MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT.
   HOWEVER...SELY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS
   EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT.  SHOULD STORMS INITIATE SWD INTO E CENTRAL NM LATER
   THIS EVENING WHERE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS /500 TO 1000 J/KG
   MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ IS IN PLACE...WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...
   
   37020524 36770455 35500340 34610221 33080202 33110356
   33910485 34910524 36160546

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0758
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0530 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN AR/EXTREME NORTHEAST TX INTO NORTHERN
   LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 288...
   
   VALID 042230Z - 042330Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL
   00Z...WITH PRIMARY THREAT REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN LA/SOUTHEAST AR
   AND SHIFTING INTO WW 290.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES REMNANT MCV MOVING ESE ACROSS AR AT
   THIS TIME. AT 2220Z...SEMI-ORGANIZED ASYMMETRIC MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST
   ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER...WITH SMALL SCALE VORTEX EVIDENT NEAR
   MONTICELLO IN DREW COUNTY AR...WITH TRAILING PORTION EXTENDING
   SOUTHWEST INTO FAR NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL LA. IN ADDITION TO
   CONTINUAL ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WITH THIS
   MCS...ADDITIONAL PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF WW 288
   AS AMBIENT AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ON THE FRINGE OF THE
   MCS.
   
   GIVEN EVENTUAL SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OUT OF WATCH 288...AND NO
   ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED VIA DEVELOPMENT ABOVE COLD POOL
   PER MCV-WAKE SHORTWAVE RIDGING...IT APPEARS WW 288 WILL BE ALLOWED
   TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
   
   32539436 33349441 33199304 33719218 31789240