EPAC mid to long range

[x-y-no]

This is the time of year I start making a daily practice of looking at the GFS mid to long range to try and get a feel for upcoming development.

I see no sign yet that the upper-air pattern is going to shift enough to allow any early development in the Caribean.

But starting around the 15th or so (and on to the end of the forecast run on the 19th) things are definitely easing enough to allow for possible development in the EPAC, probably fairly close in to Central America. Mind you this is just looking at the overall pattern. No model run I've seen has any actual development, but there will be a wave or two coming into the region in approximately that timeframe, so the possibility is at least there.

(please don't read this as a forecast that we're going to have another Adrian - it's just general and very preliminary thoughts)

For those interested in seeing what the GFS and several other models are up to, you can go to the NCEP Model Analysis page. Click on "Western North Atlantic" or "Eastern Pacific" according to which area you're interested in looking at, then select the model and run you're interested in.

Quickest way (for me at least) to get a general idea is to look at the four panel displays at select timepoints.

[cycloneye]

Nothing out of the ordinary shows up in the Atlantic long range side except for a rainy mothers day for Puerto Rico and maybe a tropical wave arriving to the lesser Antilles on the 19th.

[CrazyC83]

My EPac prediction: a relatively slow year. 12 named storms, 4 hurricanes and one major hurricane. No major landfalls either.

[Ivan14]

I am going to Paris from the 15-25. I better not miss anything or I am going to be mad. I keep looking at the GFS to make sure I wont miss any action.

[CHRISTY]

Its only a matter of time before something pops up in the PACIFIC.
Take a look at this map.

[JonathanBelles]

where did u get that christy?

[CHRISTY]

This is one of my Favorite Websites check it out..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/genesis.html

[x-y-no]

Still nothing consistant, but the 0z run this morning showed a closed low forming close-in on the 14th and difting NW.

6Z run backed offof that idea, although it still showed the enhanced precipitation and moderately favorable upper-air pattern.

[gatorcane]

Still nothing consistant, but the 0z run this morning showed a closed low forming close-in on the 14th and difting NW.

6Z run backed offof that idea, although it still showed the enhanced precipitation and moderately favorable upper-air pattern.

Where are you talking about?

[x-y-no]

Still nothing consistant, but the 0z run this morning showed a closed low forming close-in on the 14th and difting NW.

6Z run backed offof that idea, although it still showed the enhanced precipitation and moderately favorable upper-air pattern.

Where are you talking about?

EPAC - fairly close-in off the Central American coast.

See http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/fp0_276.shtml

Nothing spectacular, but a closed low with decent upper-air conditions.

(note this link will be out of date after about midnight EDT)

[gatorcane]

I see it now thanks. EPAC starts soon but climatologically it doesn't start any earlier than May 15th so I would say probably no development yet.

[x-y-no]

The period of the 14th through the 18th still looks intriguing in terms of possible development close in off the Nicaragua/Honduras/El Salvador coast.

Someone remind me how many days out the high resolution grid of the GFS runs - 7 days, right?

[clfenwi]

The period of the 14th through the 18th still looks intriguing in terms of possible development close in off the Nicaragua/Honduras/El Salvador coast.

Someone remind me how many days out the high resolution grid of the GFS runs - 7 days, right?

7 full days...180 hours total

[Weatherfreak000]

Its only a matter of time before something pops up in the PACIFIC.
Take a look at this map.

Alot of points are getting marked in the Atlantic now I see.

[x-y-no]

The period of the 14th through the 18th still looks intriguing in terms of possible development close in off the Nicaragua/Honduras/El Salvador coast.

Someone remind me how many days out the high resolution grid of the GFS runs - 7 days, right?

7 full days...180 hours total

Thanks, that's what I thought.

So over the next few days, my period of interest will be entrering the high-res part of the run. Will be interesting to see if it stays. I remember the last few years around this time there were some hints like this which just kept moving away ahead of that threshold.

[x-y-no]

Alot of points are getting marked in the Atlantic now I see.

Yeah, but those are still very low probabilities. When we start seeing some yellow or orange, then I'll get excited.

[Weatherfreak000]

Alot of points are getting marked in the Atlantic now I see.

Yeah, but those are still very low probabilities. When we start seeing some yellow or orange, then I'll get excited.

Yeah obviously, but this is the first time i've seen so many marks in the Atlantic.

[x-y-no]

Well, the feature still shows up in this morning's 0z run, but looking less impressive (not that it was too impressive to begin with).

I'll keep watching it, but it looks like we may have to wait a bit longer for the first EPAC system.

[x-y-no]

Well, well , well ...

This is getting interesting:

[Ivanhater]

hmmm...Aletta anyone??