GFS showing tropical development?

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x-y-no
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#21 Postby x-y-no » Wed May 03, 2006 10:31 pm

Well, I was going to toss my 2 cents in, but I see three pro mets have already said what I was going to better than I could. :-)
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CHRISTY

#22 Postby CHRISTY » Wed May 03, 2006 10:42 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:Low shear is expected in the next 2 days maybe it will stay around long enough so this system could form.
shear is going to be on the low side....take a look at these shear maps. ps! i still dont see anything coming out of this.

Image
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#23 Postby corpusbreeze » Wed May 03, 2006 10:42 pm

I like the part about the severe weather over Texas. That means rain. And we here in South Texas need that! But as for the rest of the forecast, I don't think so.
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#24 Postby gatorcane » Wed May 03, 2006 11:17 pm

Since it is early May I will go with climatology and say negative ghostrider on this thing developing.
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#25 Postby Air Force Met » Thu May 04, 2006 7:34 am

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:Low shear is expected in the next 2 days maybe it will stay around long enough so this system could form.


Not sure what the next two days have to do with it. The feauture we were speaking of is 9+ days out...and the upper level winds associated with it were 60 kts...and that is plenty of shear.
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Weatherfreak000

#26 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu May 04, 2006 7:42 am

And as we know, tropical cyclones love 60 kts of shear :lol:
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#27 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu May 04, 2006 8:11 am

only time will tell
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#28 Postby Ivan14 » Thu May 04, 2006 1:48 pm

I hope not. I have to take a trip to France here in 2 weeks. I don't want to miss any action.
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CHRISTY

#29 Postby CHRISTY » Fri May 05, 2006 8:55 pm

The GFS has been showing all kinda things the past couple of days.iam really not buying into it atleast not yet!here are some pics.....PS!These are signs the 2006 hurricane season is now fast approaching.

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image
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#30 Postby meteorologyman » Thu May 11, 2006 2:20 pm

This is for real

(NOAA)
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ALONG 32W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE IN SCOPE BUT STILL PRESENTS A FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY ALONG THE ITCZ FROM
3N-7N BETWEEN 30W-37W.

This just off the coast of Africa
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CHRISTY

#31 Postby CHRISTY » Thu May 11, 2006 2:22 pm

:crazyeyes: :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes:
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CHRISTY

#32 Postby CHRISTY » Thu May 11, 2006 2:26 pm

Look at all these tropical waves coming of africa....when the (ITCZ )moves a little north things are going to get very very interesting.... :eek: :eek:

Image
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MiamiensisWx

#33 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu May 11, 2006 2:35 pm

I saved that image!
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whereverwx
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#34 Postby whereverwx » Thu May 11, 2006 2:41 pm

Here are some loops

Image
Image
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#35 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu May 11, 2006 3:22 pm

CHRISTY wrote:
Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:Low shear is expected in the next 2 days maybe it will stay around long enough so this system could form.
shear is going to be on the low side....take a look at these shear maps. ps! i still dont see anything coming out of this.

Image


That forecast is for the 4th - 6th of may.
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#36 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu May 11, 2006 3:26 pm

Would you like me to ask my magic 8 ball if something is going to form?
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HurricaneHunter914
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#37 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu May 11, 2006 3:37 pm

meteorologyman wrote:This is for real

(NOAA)
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ALONG 32W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE IN SCOPE BUT STILL PRESENTS A FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY ALONG THE ITCZ FROM
3N-7N BETWEEN 30W-37W.

This just off the coast of Africa


The NHC has already mentioned a well defined wave? Now I've seen everything!
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MiamiensisWx

#38 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu May 11, 2006 3:40 pm

Image

Appears to have weakened a bit; also, shear is higher to it's west and appears to impacting Chanchu. Intensity down to 65KT and pressure up a bit.
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MiamiensisWx

#39 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu May 11, 2006 3:41 pm

Oops! I posted this in the wrong thread! Can someone move it over into the Typhoon Chanchu thread? Thanks!
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jaxfladude
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#40 Postby jaxfladude » Fri May 12, 2006 11:30 pm

:D I am afraid that that pic will we real enough for us on this side of the world. Just insert Florida Straits in place of that pic and you get the :idea: :eek:
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