MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0759
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0724 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX INTO CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 289...
   
   VALID 050024Z - 050200Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL -- CONTINUES
   ACROSS THE WW AREA.
   
   COLD FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING SWD/SSWWD ACROSS WW...SUPPORTING
   REDEVELOPMENT OF STORM UPDRAFTS WITHIN SMALL CLUSTER OF SEVERE
   STORMS OVER CENTRAL TX.  MEANWHILE...NEW STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   N OF FRONT ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
   TRANSPECOS REGION.
   
   MODERATE INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...AND PRONOUNCED
   VEERING WITH HEIGHT -- PARTICULARLY N OF FRONT -- IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY EVENING
   MAF /MIDLAND TX/ RAOB...WHICH REVEALS 1700 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE AND
   49 KT SFC-6 KM SHEAR.  THUS EXPECT THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS --
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- TO
   PERSIST...AND PERHAPS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS LOW-LEVEL JET
   STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   33410291 31679688 29789692 30940261 31900322

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0760
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0912 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 289...
   
   VALID 050212Z - 050345Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW...AND IS SPREADING SWD.  NEW WW
   MAY BE REQUIRED...REPLACING WW 289.
   
   LATEST RADAR SHOWS SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING IN AND NEAR WW
   289...WHERE FAVORABLY UNSTABLE/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT EXISTS.  AS
   OUTFLOW-REINFORCED FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SWD WITH STORMS FORMING
   JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...IT APPEARS THAT THREAT MAY
   SPREAD S OF WW 289 WITH TIME AS LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
    GIVEN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY S OF WW...THREAT MAY SPREAD SWD ACROSS
   THE HILL COUNTRY INTO PARTS OF S TX.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   33840236 32329959 32319700 29719676 28449876 29310074
   32070282

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0761
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 AM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 050625Z - 050830Z
   
   ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE METROPLEX OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS...
   
   MCS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS OF NCNTRL TX FROM
   YOUNG/STEPHENS COUNTIES INTO WISE COUNTY.  AN APPARENT MVC HAS
   EVOLVED WITHIN THIS CLUSTER ALONG THE YOUNG/STEPHENS COUNTY LINE
   WHICH MAY BE AIDING N-S LINE SEGMENT THAT IS MOVING EAST AT ROUGHLY
   30KT.  FWS VAD WINDS ARE SEEMINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS TYPE OF
   CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AS WINDS VEER CONSIDERABLY WITH
   HEIGHT...SUGGESTING WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS THIS REGION.
   UNLESS N-S LINE SEGMENT WERE TO BOW AND FORCE STRONG WINDS TO THE
   SFC WW SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL-PRODUCING
   UPDRAFTS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 05/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...
   
   33329887 33229669 32379659 32399886

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0762
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1159 AM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN GA THROUGH PARTS OF WRN SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 051659Z - 051900Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AREA
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   AN MCV OVER NRN AL WILL MOVE EWD INTO NRN GA TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
   IS DESTABILIZING ACROSS MUCH OF GA WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
   WILL BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE
   GENERALLY AROUND 1500 J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV AND WEAK CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF GA AS THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER DESTABILIZES. AMBIENT WIND AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY AND RATHER WEAK. A 30-40 KT MID LEVEL JET ON THE
   SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND S CNTRL GA. HOWEVER...STORM
   MODE SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
   TO EVOLVE INTO SMALL CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY SPREAD EWD.
   THOUGH SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CORES...THE WEAK MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT HAIL SIZE.
   PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS PROMOTED BY INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP
   EWD INTO SC LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   31018454 32458431 33318461 33818384 33838224 32958102
   31468160

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0763
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 051733Z - 051830Z
   
   SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS
   AND SVR HAIL. A WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BNDRY EXTENDING FROM AVOYELLES
   PARISH SEWD TOWARDS TERREBONNE PARISH. CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING
   ALONG THIS BDRY AND ALSO ALONG THE GULF BREEZE FRONT OVER
   SCENTRAL/SWRN LA. MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE
   OUTFLOW BNDRY WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF SRN LA.
   MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW NOTED ON AREA VWP/S ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
   AN MCV OVER NRN LA ALONG WITH ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE OUTFLOW
   SHOULD SUPPORT AROUND 35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS MAY SUPPORT
   LOOSELY ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS THAT EXHIBIT BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR
   STRUCTURE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SEWD STORM MOTIONS ALONG
   THE OUTFLOW BNDRY COMBINED WITH STABLE AIR EAST OF THE OUTFLOW BDRY
   OVER SERN LA WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS EAST/NORTH OF LAKE
   PONCHARTRAIN.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
   31179263 31069161 30709095 29978989 29468924 29068959
   29189111 29589209 29699332 29909368 30979276

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0764
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1236 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM THROUGH PART OF SWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 051736Z - 051900Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN NM INTO PARTS OF
   SWRN TX BY MID AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A TORNADO
   WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA BY 18-19Z.
   
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL TX WSWWD INTO
   SWRN TX NEAR MIDLAND THEN NWWD AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO SERN NM.
   AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL TX NWWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO
   TO NEAR BIG SPRING WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. THE 12Z RAOB
   FROM MIDLAND SHOWS 8 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND SUGGESTS THE
   CAP SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR INITIATION IN THE VICINITY OF
   THE BOUNDARIES AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH 80 F. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ABOVE AN AXIS OF 55-60 F DEWPOINTS...THE
   ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO
   3000 J/KG POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH NM. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
   THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
   AFTERNOON. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPSLOPE SELY COMPONENT ACROSS
   SERN NM SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER SE ALONG SURFACE
   BOUNDARIES ACROSS SWRN TX AND EXTREME SERN NM. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. TORNADO THREAT MAY BE
   ENHANCED WHERE STORMS INTERACT WITH THE PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
   
   30840000 31250294 32080437 33310540 33770441 32560237
   31689972

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0765
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0313 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SWRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 292...
   
   VALID 052013Z - 052145Z
   
   SVR THREAT HAS DIMINISHED OVER NERN PORTION OF WW 292. A MARGINAL
   SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS OVER WRN
   PORTIONS OF WW 292...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR NEW ISOLATED SVR
   DEVELOPMENT JUST WEST OF WW 292 IN SWRN/WCENTRAL LA. SOME OF THIS
   ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO WW 292 BEFORE 23Z.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A STABILIZED AIRMASS OVER NERN
   PORTION OF WW 292 /NORTH OF THE BTR AREA/ CREATED IN THE WAKE OF
   EARLIER SVR STORMS. WITH LACK OF A WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY...
   ADDITIONAL SVR THREAT APPEARS LIMITED IN THIS REGION AND THE AREA
   WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED SHORTLY FROM WW 292. A MORE DEFINED SVR
   THREAT REMAINS OVER SCENTRAL LA ALONG OUTFLOW/GULF BREEZE BOUNDARY
   INTERSECTIONS...AS CONVERGENCE ENHANCES UPDRAFT STRENGTH. MODEST MID
   LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN AREA IN THE WAKE OF AN MCV MOVING INTO
   SWRN MS ALSO SUPPORTING THE SVR THREAT. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN
   ISOLATED SVR THREAT ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BNDRY/FRONTAL INTERSECTION
   FURTHER WEST OVER WCENTRAL LA. HOWEVER...A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   WEST OF WW 292 GIVEN THE EXPECTED MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS SVR
   THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
   
   29199195 30079258 30489317 31079342 31249296 31089207
   30809157 30239091 29249015 29189028

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0766
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTIONS OF SWRN TX THROUGH PART OF S TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 052034Z - 052230Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF SWRN TX. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
   HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
   PORTIONS OF S TX BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND HONDO ARE ALSO BEING
   MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR
   PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   
   THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
   SWRN TX JUST E OF MARA. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE JUST
   E OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM
   2000 TO 2500 J/KG. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKENING CAP MAY HELP TO
   SUSTAIN ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD.
   
   FARTHER E...AN OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS PARTS
   OF S TX FROM NEAR HONDO NWWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO. CUMULUS CONTINUES
   TO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE THE CAP IS
   WEAKENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM
   2000 TO 2500 J/KG. IF INITIATION OCCURS...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
   AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
   28869902 29229990 29780140 29830266 30230299 30640285
   30840233 30310150 30109923 29279838

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0767
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0335 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTIONS OF SWRN TX THROUGH PART OF S TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 052035Z - 052230Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF SWRN TX. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
   HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
   PORTIONS OF S TX BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND HONDO ARE ALSO BEING
   MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR
   PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   
   THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
   SWRN TX JUST E OF MARFA. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
   JUST E OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...STEEP MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE
   FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKENING CAP MAY
   HELP TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD.
   
   FARTHER E...AN OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS PARTS
   OF S TX FROM NEAR HONDO NWWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO. CUMULUS CONTINUES
   TO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE THE CAP IS
   WEAKENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM
   2000 TO 2500 J/KG. IF INITIATION OCCURS...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
   AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
   28869902 29229990 29780140 29830266 30230299 30640285
   30840233 30310150 30109923 29279838

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0768
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0512 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 292...
   
   VALID 052212Z - 052315Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG
   WINDS/LARGE HAIL OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 292. SVR THREAT MAY EXTEND
   LOCALLY FOR AN HOUR OR SO BEYOND 23Z /WW 292 EXPIRATION TIME/ BUT A
   NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   MOST OF THE ERN HALF OF WW 219 HAS SEEN THE EFFECTS OF PREVIOUS
   CONVECTION HELP STABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND END THE SVR THREAT.
   FURTHER WEST...THE AIRMASS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 292 WWD INTO
   SWRN/WCENTRAL LA REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND
   2000 J/KG. CONVECTION SHOULD  CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY THAT WAS SLOWLY MOVING WWD OVER FAR WRN PORTIONS OF WW 292.
   A SVR STORM EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS OVER WCENTRAL LA
   SHOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND INTO THE NWRN PORTION OF WW
   292 IN THE NEXT HALF HR. AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE
   WWD IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERCUT ALL THE CONVECTION IN THE REGION.
   THUS THE ORGANIZED SVR THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE
   NEXT HR OR SO AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY FOR A NEW WW BEYOND
   23Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
   
   31079245 31189283 31149301 30549293 30109272 29829252
   29179185 29189089 29559080 29709121 29899159

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0769
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0649 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM/TX SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION INTO
   CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 293...294...
   
   VALID 052349Z - 060115Z
   
   SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 293 AND 294...AND MAY
   SPREAD EWD INTO CENTRAL N TX.  NEW WW LIKELY WITHIN THE HOUR.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE -- MAINLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF
   SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING WNW-ESE ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS AND INTO
   CENTRAL TX.  SHEAR REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH
   NUMEROUS STORMS SHOWING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. 
   
   THOUGH TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES -- PARTICULARLY NEAR SURFACE
   FRONT...GREATER THREAT ATTM REMAINS LARGE HAIL GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE
   OF CONVECTION. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME
   AS WELL...AS INCREASING ESELY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW STORMS TO
   ORGANIZE INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS AND MOVE RAPIDLY ESEWD ALONG
   FRONT.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   34820390 34630190 33329676 30169906 31660377 33590422

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0770
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0726 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 295...
   
   VALID 060026Z - 060230Z
   
   CONTINUE ALL WW 295.
   
   ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
   ESEWD OVER PORTIONS OF WW 295 DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS...PRIMARILY
   ALONG AND EAST OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING N-S FROM KERR COUNTY
   SWD TO ATASCOSA COUNTIES. PRIMARY SVR THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL
   AND DMGG WINDS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
   
   LATEST VWP FROM EWX INDICATES STRONGLY LOOPING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH
   INDICATIVE OF AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. MODERATE TO EXTREME
   INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR /40 KTS/ WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL/DMGG WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. RECENT SAT IMAGERY SHOWS
   MDT CU ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ATASCOSA COUNTY NWD
   TO KERR COUNTY INDICATING THAT ADDITIONAL SVR STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP
   IN THE NEXT FEW HRS IN THE ERN PORTION OF WW 295. GIVEN MORE STABLE
   AIR IN PLACE OVER AREAS EAST OF THE HILL COUNTRY...THE POSSIBILITY
   FOR AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT EAST OF WW 295 REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
   HOWEVER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
   ANOTHER WW IN A FEW HRS.
   
   FURTHER WEST...A LONE SUPERCELL STORM OVER TERRELL COUNTY WILL MOVE
   ESEWD AROUND 25 KTS AND INTO SRN CROCKETT AND NWRN VAL VERDE
   COUNTIES THROUGH 02Z. THE 00Z DRT SOUNDING INDICATED MINOR MLCINH.
   AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL...THIS STORM IS NOT LIKELY
   TO LAST MUCH BEYOND 03Z. SAT TRENDS INDICATE A DIMINISHING THREAT
   FOR NEW SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THIS STORM ACROSS PECOS COUNTY.
   THEREFORE THIS COUNTY LIKELY CAN BE CLEARED FROM WW 295 BY 0130Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
   30720239 29130254 28719785 30639789 30719983

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0771
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1115 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN PORTIONS OF THE TRANSPECOS REGION INTO CENTRAL
   TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 297...
   
   VALID 060415Z - 060545Z
   
   SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW -- WITH NEW WW POSSIBLE AS
   STORMS APPROACH THE ERN/SERN FRINGES OF WW.
   
   BOW ECHO CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD AT 30 TO 35 KT ACROSS WRN N
   TX...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS -- BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE BOW --
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.  STRONGEST/SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION CONTINUES
   AHEAD OF THE BOW ECHO...WHERE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL PERSISTS.
   GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
   GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO STORMS ON SRN FRINGE OF CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTER...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE CONVECTION IS LESS
   ELEVATED.
   
   THOUGH A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   AS STORMS ENCOUNTER LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
   AND ERN TX...A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
   HOURS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
   32930117 32619688 31329501 30529511 30549706 31110126

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0772
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0231 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 298...299...
   
   VALID 060731Z - 060900Z
   
   ...SEVERE SQUALL LINE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
   TX...
   
   AN EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF
   SEVERE SQUALL LINE ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL TX.  ALONG THE
   LEADING EDGE...FAST MOVING EMBEDDED ECHOES REMAIN CONDUCE TO
   PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY INGEST RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.  IN ADDITION...UPDRAFTS
   CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
   DECREASE IN OVERALL INTENSITY OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO.  AT ANY
   RATE...WELL ORGANIZED MCS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TOWARD SERN TX
   WHERE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO REFOCUS BY SUNRISE.  IN ADDITION...FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION EXHIBIT MUCH WEAKER INHIBITION THUS
   BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION WILL BE EASIER TO MAINTAIN ACROSS THIS
   REGION.
   
   ..DARROW.. 05/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
   
   30839965 30549826 30729728 31549601 30889541 29689692
   29839855 30459984

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0773
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0648 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...SWRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 299...
   
   VALID 061148Z - 061245Z
   
   ...SQUALL LINE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS SERN TX INTO SWRN LA OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.  WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...
   
   LIMITED INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM FROM ADVANCING MCS WILL PROVE
   DETRIMENTAL TO UPDRAFT INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA
   WHERE MUCAPE IS GENERALLY AOB 1000J/KG.  BROKEN SQUALL LINE HAS
   RECENTLY PRODUCED SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE GREATER HOUSTON
   AREA...HOWEVER THESE HIGH WINDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGEST
   CONVECTIVE SURGE THAT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE UPPER TX COAST WITHIN THE
   HOUR.  EWD PUSH INTO LA WILL BE MUCH WEAKER...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY
   TRENDS THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE SQUALL LINE WILL MAINTAIN
   SEVERE INTENSITY...OR DEVELOP DAMAGING WINDS PRIOR TO BOUNDARY LAYER
   HEATING LATER THIS MORNING.  AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE ISSUING
   A WATCH FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   ..DARROW.. 05/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
   
   29349511 31199426 31509324 29609254

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0774
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1003 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH SERN LA THROUGH EXTREME SRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 061503Z - 061700Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS
   ACROSS S CNTRL THROUGH SERN LA AND POSSIBLY INTO PARTS OF SRN MS.
   THREATS WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND
   POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
   WW.
   
   THIS MORNING A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS ACROSS WRN LA MOVING EWD. A
   RETREATING FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NRN GULF WNWWD THROUGH SERN AND
   INTO S CNTRL LA WHERE IT INTERSECT THE EWD ADVANCING SQUALL LINE.
   ANVIL CIRRUS IS LIMITING BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...BUT A SLOW WARMING
   INTO THE LOWER 80S IS EXPECTED NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH RICH
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND S OF RETREATING BOUNDARY WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH EWD ADVANCING MCV AND WEAK CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND E OF SQUALL LINE AS WELL
   AS IN VICINITY OF NWD RETREATING FRONT. A MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING
   THE MCV WILL PROVIDE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LOW
   LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. HOWEVER...ESELY FLOW
   NEAR THE SURFACE VEERING TO SLY AT 20 TO 25 KT AROUND 1 KM MAY
   RESULT IN SUFFICIENT 0-1 KM HELICITY FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONE
   FORMATION AND A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
   WITH ANY STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE E-W BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...LARGE
   HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER
   STORMS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
   29218977 29849260 31049253 31109014 30248894

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1211 PM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH S CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 061711Z - 061915Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL THROUGH
   S CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WW MIGHT BE NEED FOR THIS AREA
   BY MID AFTERNOON.
   
   AT MID-DAY A LARGE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN TX
   NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI WNWWD TO S OF DEL RIO THEN NWD TO S OF SAN
   ANGELO AND EWD TO NEAR KILEEN. N OF THIS BOUNDARY A SYNOPTIC FRONT
   EXTENDS FROM ERN TX NEAR LUFKIN WWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO THEN SWWD TO
   WEST OF SANDERSON. MUCH OF CNTRL TX HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY STABILIZED
   BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING IS DEVELOPING
   OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA. CONTINUED WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE
   AROUND 2000 J/KG. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED MOVING EWD THROUGH
   THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 0-2 KM SHEAR ARE
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST. HOWEVER...A MID LEVEL JET ON THE SRN
   PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KT...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. THE
   POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
   VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL TX AS THE ATMOSPHERE
   DESTABILIZES AND THE CAP WEAKENS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
   
   31589911 31169781 30239807 29509932 29730107 30970078

[JonathanBelles]

i wish you texans would stop hoggin all the weather

[TexasStooge]

We need all the rain we could get here to ease the deficit.

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0776
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0231 PM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 061931Z - 062130Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
   DEEP SOUTH TX IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK MESOLOW SOUTH OF LRD WITH AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW TO NEAR BKS AND MOVING SLOWLY
   SWD. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS VERY UNSTABLE WITH
   MLCAPES AROUND 3500 J/KG. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH SATELLITE
   IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE STILL REMAINS SOME CIN ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR. HOWEVER A FEW MORE HRS OF HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
   OUTFLOW BNDRY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
   MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A
   FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DMGG
   WINDS. VWP DATA FROM CRP AND BRO SHOWS A MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH
   0-1 KM SRH FROM 100-200 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW LCL
   HEIGHTS SUGGESTS THAT IF ANY DISCRETE STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY MIGHT
   BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES /ESPECIALLY IF THEY MOVE
   PARALLEL THE OUTFLOW BNDRY/.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
   
   25899750 26379895 26689925 27259950 27569956 27759944
   27519819 27319745 26899718 26039705