Dry May is certain

[Patrick99]

It seems are only chance of rain would be for a east coast sea breeze to develop. The upper level cloud cover is limiting insolation in order to get decent EC sea breeze.

Looking out the window, I don't see any convection that could give us any rain down here as the lower level convection looks very much capped. Looks like the high and the dry air are going to win again, but I am still going to hold out for a possible late afternoon shower. I am tired of watering the lawn, c'mon rain!!.

Yeah, per latest satellite, that area of convection really petered out as it approached S. Florida.

[jabber]

Yeah, per latest satellite, that area of convection really petered out as it approached S. Florida.[/quote]

Yeah, it looks pretty dry in Boynton Beach right now.

[MiamiensisWx]

Blue sky here once again with a few clouds. Drier, too.

Look at this...

000
NOUS42 KMFL 091634
PNSMFL
FLZ069-100000-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1230 PM EDT TUE MAY 09 2006

...FIRST MEASURABLE RAIN IN NAPLES IN 46 DAYS...

A DISSIPATING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED INTO THE WESTERN
COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING BROUGHT
ONLY SCANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO THE NAPLES AREA.

OUR CO-OP STATION AT NAPLES REPORTED 0.10 INCHES OF RAIN BY NOON
TODAY...AFTER THE EVENT WAS OVER.

EXCEPT FOR A TRACE OF RAIN REPORTED AT THE NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT
LAST APRIL 12TH...THIS IS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE AREA
SINCE 0.08 INCHES WAS REPORTED LAST MARCH 23RD.

$$

LOCKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT TUE MAY 9 2006

FLZ063-066>075-101745-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
139 PM EDT TUE MAY 9 2006

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY ALONG
THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH, OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES, SMALL HAIL, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IF YOU SEE
LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER MOVE INSIDE UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED
BY.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT http://WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.
$$

BAXTER

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah, per latest satellite, that area of convection really petered out as it approached S. Florida.

Yeah, it looks pretty dry in Boynton Beach right now.[/quote]

Hey jabber i just moved from boynton to delray... where abouts in boynton are you? I am east of 95 on linton.

[CHRISTY]

RAIN IS GONE!

[Scorpion]

Really thought I'd be seeing a big rainstorm today. Guess not. It sprinkled for maybe 10 minutes and then the sun came out.

[CHRISTY]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 091849
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
249 PM EDT TUE MAY 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...GUIDANCE STILL BEING SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT IN HANDLING
WEATHER FEATURES FOR THIS WEEK. LAST TWO RUNS OF GFS HAVE PLACED
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ABOUT 12 HOURS EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW LOOKING LIKE AN EARLY FRIDAY
EVENT. MOS GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE ONE TO BELIEVE THAT CHANCES FOR
RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE NEARLY WITHERED AWAY FROM WHAT
EARLIER INDICATIONS HAD BEEN. HOWEVER...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN
PLACE...STRONG SOLAR HEATING AND ACTIVE SEABREEZES...THINK AT
LEAST 30 POPS STILL IN ORDER FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS
ALSO INDICATING A SECOND COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER REASONABLE CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN. HAVE POSTED CHANCE POPS WITH THAT EVENT IN LINE WITH
MOS GUIDANCE.

[WeatherEmperor]

Looking out the window, I don't see any convection that could give us any rain down here as the lower level convection looks very much capped. Looks like the high and the dry air are going to win again, but I am still going to hold out for a possible late afternoon shower. I am tired of watering the lawn, c'mon rain!!.

Don't worry... I think you may well get your chance soon due to the current pattern(s).

what do you mean?

<RICKY>

[TampaFl]

I measured 1.17" @ my home this morning. First significant rainfall here in Brandon since Feb. 3rd!
And this was not forcasted here last night.
Will take anything we can get!

NOUS42 KTBW 091828 CCA
PNSTBW

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1200 PM EDT TUE MAY 9 2006

...MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THIS MORNING...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO PRODUCE A LARGE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS COMPLEX THEN MOVED ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS...AND PROVIDED SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AND RELIEF FROM THE
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS. UNFORTUNATELY...MOST OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
REMAINED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CLOSER TO THE SOURCE OF
THE UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR. THE COMPLEX GRADUALLY DISSIPATED AS IT
CROSSED THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ENCOUNTERED A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS. MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA RECEIVED FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL...
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS AROUND TAMPA BAY AND ALONG THE NATURE COAST
RECEIVING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF PRELIMINARY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS
MORNINGS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 11 AM:

PCPN

ARCADIA 0.30
BALM 0.64
BRONSON 0.41
BROOKSVILLE (BKV) 1.12
BROOKSVILLE 5NNE 0.31
DOVER 1.46
FORT MYERS/PAGE FIELD (FMY) 0.09
FORT MYERS/SW INT APT (RSW) 0.07
LAKE ALFRED 0.36
OKAHUMPKA 0.42
ONA 0.38
PUNTA GORDA (PGD) 0.42
RUSKIN (TBW) 0.79
SARASOTA/BRADENTON APT (SRQ) 0.57
SEBRING 0.25
ST PETE/ALBERT WHITTED (SPG) 0.85
ST PETE/CLEARWATER APT (PIE) 1.15
TAMPA INTERNATIONAL APT (TPA) 1.22
WINTER HAVEN/GILBERT APT (GIF) 0.55

$$

CORRECTED RSW RAINFALL TOTAL

NP/AR





[MiamiensisWx]

what do you mean?

<RICKY>

I mean that the current pattern I mentioned in the thread on Canada/Greenland ridging may allow better chances of rainfall in Florida.

[Patrick99]

Just got some late, late afternoon seabreeze convection firing - I just heard thunder and it became quite windy for a while, but still not a drop of rain.

However, I see on the radar that there's a fairly impressive t-storm over Key Biscayne at the moment. I think I just felt the rush of an outflow boundary from the storm.

As for the May pattern and hurricane season....I don't know, I suppose you can find a correlation between a dry May and hurricanes hitting S FL....but a wet May certainly doesn't preclude hurricanes from hitting S FL either. Nor does the presence of an East Coast trough necessarily shield us from all hits. If something starts out south of us, that EC trough could conceivably recurve a storm right over us just like Donna or Cleo. Nor does a prevailing trough pattern necessarily mean there won't be a strong high at some point during the season, or vice versa....

.....I'm not sure that a hurricane season can ultimately be predicted in advance this way.

[Windtalker1]

Don't get your hopes up here in SE Florida....a 30-40% chance is nothing to get excited about.

Told you this was nothing to get excited about...not a drop of rain in Davie (West of Ft Lauderdale) all day.

[CHRISTY]

my cousin called me she said it was raining like crazy in miami....she said it lasted about 20 minutes!

[flashflood]

Apparently the rain gods must have heard me when I said I was going to hold out for a later afternoon shower. It rained pretty good for about 20 mins a few hours ago. FINALLY!.

My rain gauge got blown away during Wilma, which I still have not found to this day. So I am not sure exactly how much it rained here.

[Evil Jeremy]

the lack of rain has caused yet another Everglades fire today!!!! smoke was everywhere from boca south!

[CHRISTY]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 100100
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
900 PM EDT TUE MAY 9 2006

.UPDATE...MODEL GUIDANCE OF LITTLE HELP THIS EVENING FOR WIND
DIRECTION. GRADIENT FLOW IS RATHER WEAK WITH E CST SEA BREEZE
SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS CIRCULATION IS LOST, WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT WITH GENERAL WESTERLY COMPONENT
SO NOTHING REALLY NEWSWORTHY AT ANY RATE. A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPED ALONG THE E CST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ALONG THE
BROWARD/PBI COUNTY LINE AND THEN MOVED SE THROUGH THE E CST METRO
AREA. MOVEMENT WAS RATHER QUICK SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. HOWEVER, CLEARING SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
OVER THE INTERIOR ZONES.

[benny]

Just got some late, late afternoon seabreeze convection firing - I just heard thunder and it became quite windy for a while, but still not a drop of rain.

However, I see on the radar that there's a fairly impressive t-storm over Key Biscayne at the moment. I think I just felt the rush of an outflow boundary from the storm.

As for the May pattern and hurricane season....I don't know, I suppose you can find a correlation between a dry May and hurricanes hitting S FL....but a wet May certainly doesn't preclude hurricanes from hitting S FL either. Nor does the presence of an East Coast trough necessarily shield us from all hits. If something starts out south of us, that EC trough could conceivably recurve a storm right over us just like Donna or Cleo. Nor does a prevailing trough pattern necessarily mean there won't be a strong high at some point during the season, or vice versa....

.....I'm not sure that a hurricane season can ultimately be predicted in advance this way.

All you have to look at is how different May 2004/2005 were... 2004 was fairly dry while 2005 was on the wet side.. and yet there were hurricanes everywhere in both years. ...

[boca]

Looks like I'm not eating crow after all. It didn't rain here in W Boca.

[jdray]

We only had .2 to .4 inches here in NE Florida on Monday.
Not even enough to quench most animal's thirst...

KDBI (Keetch-Byram Drought Index) is dropping for most Florida Counties past few days, but still above 500 for most of the state.

Looks like Thursday is the best chance for South Florida rainfall.

[SouthFloridawx]

I have been checking out the gfs 10 - 15 runs for a couple of days now and it indicates some rain on the way for south florida. Not just a little rain either but, a good bit of rain. Lets continue to watch this and see if it holds true. I will post some shot of it in a little bit.