MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0817
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0938 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...PARTS OF NRN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX?
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 318...
   
   VALID 100238Z - 100415Z
   
   ADDITIONAL WW PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
   OKLAHOMA.
   
   MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
   MUCH OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SEEMS LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE
   03-06Z TIME.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING
   CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...AHEAD OF VIGOROUS IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN
   PERIPHERY OF NORTH PLAINS CLOSED LOW.  ENVIRONMENT ALONG LOW-LEVEL
   BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR/NORTH OF THE RED RIVER IS POTENTIALLY VERY
   UNSTABLE WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-4000 J/KG...
   AND WILL FAVOR RAPID NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS INHIBITION
   WEAKENS.  LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY...AND DRY POTENTIALLY COLD MID-LEVEL
   ENVIRONMENT EVIDENT IN 00Z NORMAN SOUNDING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
   SUFFICIENT NEGATIVE BUOYANCY IN DOWNDRAFTS FOR DAMAGING SURFACE WIND
   POTENTIAL...DESPITE DEVELOPING SURFACE INVERSION. 
   
   TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DECREASING WITH ACTIVITY NORTHEAST
   OF SURFACE LOW...ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
   OKLAHOMA.  LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THOUGH
   ...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO BECOMING AN INCREASING THREAT. WITH
   MAIN UPPER SUPPORT STILL UPSTREAM...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO
   DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   35179952 35479838 35479696 35339630 34839488 33879416
   33519456 33399543 33409634 33519787 33609893 33889961
   34469994

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0818
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0954 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/SWRN GA/PANHANDLE FL
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 100254Z - 100500Z
   
   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD AS UPPER LEVEL
   SHORTWAVE OVER ECNTRL MS CONTINUES ITS RAPID EWD MOVEMENT.  MUCAPES
   IN THE REGION RANGE FROM ABOUT 1500 J/KG OVER SRN AL AND DECREASE TO
   ABOUT 1000 J/KG IN SWRN GA. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ARE MAINLY ELEVATED
   ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF
   BGE TO CEW TO JUST NORTH OF PIB...EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR THE GULF
   COAST REMAINS AOA 40 J/KG.
   
   WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/DIMINISHING INSTABILITY STORMS HAVE
   BEEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LARGE SCALE
   ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE WITH TIME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
   SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD...SO STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
   FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
   
   DUE TO THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
   THIS TIME.
   
   ..BRIGHT.. 05/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...
   
   31938782 32228712 32168639 31858506 31408395 30878348
   29958334 30188424 30178569 30448643 30368825 30648918
   31408866

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0819
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0205 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS...NWRN AL...MIDDLE TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 100705Z - 100800Z
   
   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
   THE NRN GULF STATES AND MIDDLE TN...
   
   LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS THE NRN GULF STATES
   INTO THE TN VALLEY.  EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OVER NWRN MS
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD AND MOVE EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH
   WITHIN THE HOUR.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
   SOON FOR ADJACENT AREAS DOWNSTREAM.
   
   ..DARROW.. 05/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
   
   33158977 36468835 36208669 33258766

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0401 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...EXTREME NERN TX AND CNTRL/WRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 100901Z - 101030Z
   
   WEATHER WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE REALIGNED ACROSS THE REGION BY 10Z OR
   SO.
   
   A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING INTO WRN OK THIS MORNING
   AND APPEARS TO BE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TSTM CLUSTER MOVING
   INTO CNTRL/SWRN OK AND WRN N TX.  MESOANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT
   ARCING FROM NWRN AR ACROSS SERN OK...THEN WWD ALONG THE RED RIVER
   INTO THE VERNON TX AREA.  TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THIS
   FRONT FROM NEAR FORT SMITH TO PARIS TX...AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
   APPROACHES THE REGION.
   
   SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS MAINTAINED A FLOW OF UNSTABLE PARCELS FROM N
   TX INTO OK AND AR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
   ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE HAIL THREAT.  MOREOVER...A 50-60 KT
   MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCD WITH THE IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
   SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN
   LINEAR SEGMENTS.  THE LINES WILL TEND TO BOW AND PRODUCE DAMAGING
   WINDS.
   
   THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS EXTREME NERN TX INTO
   PARTS OF WRN AR...BUT THE SRN-MOST CELLS ACROSS WRN N TX/SWRN OK MAY
   REMAIN POTENTIALLY SEVERE AS THEY MOVE INTO SWRN/SCNTRL OK.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   34739973 35449879 35539579 35679323 34439260 33419330
   32989532 33189686

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0821
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0401 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MS TO WRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 326...327...
   
   VALID 100901Z - 101030Z
   
   ...SEVERE SQUALL LINE WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST OF CURRENT WATCHES...
   
   MATURING SQUALL LINE...AND ASSOCIATED EXPANDING PRECIPITATION
   SHIELD...IS BEGINNING TO TURN ESEWD ACROSS NRN MS.  ORIENTATION OF
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ALONG ERN EDGE OF STRONGER INSTABILITY
   SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL TURN SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF ECNTRL
   MS/WCNTRL AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  CURRENT ACTIVITY IS MOVING AT
   ROUGHLY 40KT AND MAY SOON SPREAD SOUTH OF WW326.  LOCAL EXTENTION OR
   A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY.
   
   ..DARROW.. 05/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...
   
   34288873 33618752 32528735 32268815 32458926 32929061

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0822
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0518 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SRN OK AND EXTREME NRN PARTS OF NCNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 101018Z - 101145Z
   
   A PERSISTENT TSTM LINE SEGMENT HAS BEEN PRODUCING 70+ MPH WIND GUSTS
   ACROSS SRN TILLMAN COUNTY OK.  THIS CELL IS MOVING 275/53 AND WILL
   BE MOVING INTO AREAS NEAR/S OF KADM BY 1115-1130Z AND LAKE TEXHOMA
   BY 1230Z...ALSO POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE NRN TIER OF TX COUNTIES ALONG
   THE RED RIVER.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS PLACES AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING FROM MCCURTAIN COUNTY
   OK SWWD THROUGH THE NRN PARTS OF THE DFW METROPLEX.  THE COLD DOME
   IS SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW TO ALLOW STRONG DOWNDRAFTS TO MAKE IT TO THE
   SFC.  BUT...THE COLDER AIR IS LIKELY DEEPER ACROSS AREAS EAST OF
   I-35 INTO SERN OK WHERE SIGNIFICANT TSTMS FORMED DURING TUE EVENING.
    AS SUCH...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BE REDUCED BY THE TIME THE
   CELL REACHES THE ATOKA AREA LATER THIS MORNING.  THE LARGE HAIL
   THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...HOWEVER ...GIVEN STEEP H5-H7 LAPSE
   RATES.
   
   THE LINE SEGMENT WILL PROBABLY NOT DEVELOP FARTHER S INTO NCNTRL TX
   OWING TO STRONGER CAP.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   34509863 34549523 34119536 33669598 33619700 34059845

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0823
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0547 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SMALL PART OF ECNTRL/SERN MS AND CNTRL/SRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 101047Z - 101215Z
   
   LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO/THROUGH NWRN/WCNTRL AL AND
   ECNTRL MS.  NRN EDGE OF THE MCS WAS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES BEYOND THE
   PRIMARY FEED OF INSTABILITY.  BUT...SRN EDGE OF THE COMPLEX
   CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN/INCREASE INTENSITY.  LATEST PROFILER/VWP PLOT
   SUGGESTS THAT THE AXIS OF 30-35 KT SWLY H85 JET WAS SITUATED FROM
   NRN LA INTO NRN MS.  PARCELS FEEDING THE TSTMS WERE ORIGINATING IN A
   PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR AN
   ORGANIZED MCS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
   
   AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF AL WAS RECOVERING WITH
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS INCREASING.  IF THE MOST UNSTABLE
   PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR CAN BECOME SITUATED MORE NW-SE AHEAD OF
   THE COMPLEX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...A DAMAGING WIND BOW ECHO
   TYPE OF SITUATION MAY CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN PARTS OF AL.  AS
   SUCH...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THESE AREAS.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...
   
   34178766 33588603 32618532 32038517 31348520 31168591
   31428706 31868829 32198870 32818893 33448831

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0824
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0627 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN OK...EXTREME NERN OK...SRN/CNTRL
   AR...NWRN MS...FAR WRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 101127Z - 101300Z
   
   MIDDLE OF THREE LINEAR MCS/S CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS AR THIS
   MORNING.  INDIVIDUAL STORMS WITHIN THE LINE HAVE BEEN EXHIBITING
   VARIOUS STORM MODES...AND MAY BE STRUGGLING SOMEWHAT GIVEN THE SHORT
   WAVE LENGTH BETWEEN THE LINE AND THE LEAD MCS ACROSS AL/MS. 
   UPSTREAM...A PERSISTENT LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY EWD
   JUST N OF THE RED RIVER IN SCNTRL OK...TIED TO A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE
   MOVING ACROSS WRN OK.
   
   MESOANALYSIS PLACES AN OUTFLOW ARCING FROM SRN MS ACROSS NRN
   LA...THEN SWWD INTO NCNTRL TX. DESPITE THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER IN
   PLACE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MID-SOUTH...THE FEED OF UNSTABLE PARCELS
   ABOVE THIS SHALLOW STABLE LAYER WILL MAINTAIN THE TSTMS.  STRONGER
   STORMS WILL FAVOR THE SRN END OF THE MCS AS IT MOVES ACROSS SERN AR
   INTO NWRN MS THROUGH 13-15Z.  THE STORMS MAY INCREASE IN AREAL
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ONCE THE UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER OK
   MOVES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   THREAT FOR A WHILE LONGER...BUT DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO
   PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE AS THE MORNING WEARS ON.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   33699523 35799156 35778987 34608951 33229034 33059086
   33159407

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0825
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0831 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...WRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 101331Z - 101500Z
   
   A LINEAR MCS NEAR THE MS RIVER WILL CONTINUE ESEWD ACROSS NRN MS AND
   WRN AL. A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL MAY CONTINUE WITH THE MCS
   OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER NWRN MS WITH SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F ACROSS MOST OF CNTRL AND NRN MS.
   SFC TEMPS ARE WARMER SOUTH OF THE MCS ACROSS CNTRL MS WHERE MODERATE
   INSTABILITY EXISTS. THE MCS IS TRACKING ALONG THE INSTABILITY
   GRADIENT AND AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THIS MORNING...THE
   INSTABILITY SHOULD SUSTAIN THE MCS. WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW
   0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE SUGGESTING ORGANIZED
   SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. BECAUSE
   THE MCS HAS ORGANIZED INTO A SHORT-LINE...THE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE
   WITH BOWING SEGMENTS MAY BE THE GREATEST THREAT. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...
   
   32708840 33139050 33569083 34279052 34508975 34068777
   33398735 32838758

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0826
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1057 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL AND NE LA...WRN AND CNTRL MS...FAR SE AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 101557Z - 101800Z
   
   THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NCNTRL/NERN
   LA...WRN/CNTRL MS AND FAR SE AR. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BECOME
   NECESSARY AROUND 17Z ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
   EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS NRN LA INTO CNTRL MS. SOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND AN AXIS OF STRONG
   INSTABILITY IS PRESENT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE BOUNDARY ACROSS LA
   INTO SERN TX. A LINEAR MCS JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN AR
   WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD ALONG THE NORTH EDGE OF THE STRONGER
   INSTABILITY. REGIONAL WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW STRONG VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILES WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW
   ECHOES AS THE MCS TRACKS ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
   THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD BE GREATEST
   ALONG THE SOUTH END OF THE MCS WHERE STORMS WILL HAVE AXIS TO
   STRONGER INSTABILITY. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH
   THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.
   
   FURTHER SOUTHWEST...SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MESOSCALE THERMAL
   AXIS LOCATED FROM CNTRL LA EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE NE LA. ALTHOUGH
   THE TIMING OF INITIATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...CELLS COULD INITIATE
   ALONG THIS THERMAL AXIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WITH
   DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS NCNTRL/NE LA AND
   WRN/CNTRL MS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATER TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
   EXIST NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN WRN AND CNTRL MS LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   31439096 31729228 32109295 32949302 33579228 33589113
   33509034 33278943 32618888 31618930

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0827
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1221 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...WRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 101721Z - 101845Z
   
   A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS WITH A LINEAR MCS CROSSING NRN AL ATTM. WW MAY BECOME
   NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY.
   
   AN MCS IS ONGOING WELL NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED IN SCNTRL
   AL. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID
   60S F WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN THE LINE FOR A
   FEW MORE HOURS. THE MCS APPEARS CLOSELY RELATED TO A 55 KT MID-LEVEL
   JET MAX LOCATED JUST BEHIND THE LINE ACCORDING TO RUC ANALYSIS.
   ALTHOUGH THE LINE APPEARS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...THE FORWARD
   SPEED OF THE MCS SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG THE
   LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD BE
   ENHANCED JUST AHEAD OF BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
   THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...
   
   34468636 34268506 33638455 32848449 32298534 32508683
   33188758 33988723

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0828
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1242 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 329...
   
   VALID 101742Z - 101915Z
   
   WW 329 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 18Z. HOWEVER A NEW WW MAY BE
   NEEDED AROUND 19Z AS CONVECTION OVER MS BEGINS TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO
   THE REGION.
   
   EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND MOVED EWD INTO SWRN GA. AREA
   REMAINS UNDER BROAD WAA PROFILE AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR.
   COPIOUS CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING
   IN THE WAA PROFILE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
   DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL MS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
   INTENSIFY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SWRN AL AFTER 19Z. WITH
   CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED OVER SRN AL...SVR THREAT WILL
   LIKELY REDEVELOP AFTER THIS TIME. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR...ANY NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE TORNADO.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   32178641 32568813 32268824 31538828 31338788 31098675
   31078539 31238517 31868523

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0829
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1250 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX...NW LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 101750Z - 101945Z
   
   STORMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS NE TX AND NW LA WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2
   HOURS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ACROSS THE REGION BY 1830Z.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD
   ACROSS NE TX AND JUST ENTERING FAR NW LA. SOUTHEAST OF THE
   BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND STRONG
   INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. A CAPPING INVERSION EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF
   EAST TX AND WRN LA HOWEVER...THE CAP HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST HOUR
   ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND THE SHV 17Z SOUNDING. AS
   CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
   SHOULD INITIATE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST TX AND WRN LA SHOW STRONG
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0
   C/KM. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SUPERCELLS
   MATURE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
   
   31099336 30709469 31079522 31799520 32449421 32799313
   32479234 32029214 31539250

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0830
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0138 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI/NWRN OH...WRN/NRN IND AND ECENTRAL IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 101838Z - 102045Z
   
   ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY BNDRY FROM ECENTRAL IL
   NEWD INTO SCENTRAL LOWER MI MAY BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR
   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. GENERAL MARGINAL NATURE OF
   THE SVR THREAT SUGGESTS A LIMITED NEED FOR A WW FOR AT LEAST THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HRS.
   
   18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW NEAR STL NEWD TO CMI TO SBN TO BTL.
   ALTHOUGH A BROAD AREA OF CIRRUS WAS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...
   SUFFICIENT HEATING HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NEAR THIS
   BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH 3-6 KM LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITED /6 DEG
   C/KM/...LAPSE RATES IN A SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER LAYER /3-5 KM/ WHERE
   MORE ROBUST /7 DEG C/KM/. REGIONAL VWP/S INDICATE NLY FLOW IN THE
   0-3 KM LAYER...WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW ABOVE THIS LAYER.
   THUS...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WAS MODEST /30-35 KTS/ AND SHOULD GRADUALLY
   INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR A
   MORE ORGANIZED SVR THREAT SHOULD BE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
   /MUCAPES FROM 750-1000 J/KG/ AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
   
   42718576 42178626 41128741 40488828 39248866 38998844
   39238789 40108659 40978538 41728466 42468414 42738447

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0831
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0234 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/SERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 101934Z - 102130Z
   
   SVR TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT
   FROM SERN TX INTO THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.
   SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER
   VALLEY OF SOUTH TX. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ONE
   OR MORE WW/S BY 21Z.
   
   LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT
   FROM JUST NORTH OF HOUSTON SWWD ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN.
   MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
   MLCAPES ABOVE 5000 J/KG AND VERY LITTLE CINH REMAINING. CONVERGENCE
   ALONG THE FRONT /WHICH IS 2 KM DEEP PER RECENT GRK VWP DATA/ SHOULD
   SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. THE COMBINATION OF
   MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW /30 KTS/ AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
   RAPID STORM INTENSIFICATION AND A LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND THREAT. A WW
   MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA SHORTLY.
   
   FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST/LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER
   VALLEY...A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS AS WELL. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
   CAP THAN FURTHER NORTH /PER THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING/ MAY DELAY
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION FOR ANOTHER FEW MORE HRS...UNTIL THE FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA BEGINNING AROUND 21Z. AGAIN THE DEGREE
   OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT
   QUICKLY AFTER ANY STORM INITIATION. SLIGHTLY GREATER LOW LVL LAPSE
   RATES SUGGEST THAT THE WIND THREAT MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN IN
   THE MIDDLE TX COAST.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
   
   31169486 29999676 28899810 27119913 26669912 26339880
   26009808 26179791 26959748 28299676 29379478

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0832
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0242 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MS...NE LA AND SRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 332...
   
   VALID 101942Z - 102145Z
   
   THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS
   ACROSS CNTRL MS...NE LA AND SRN AL. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO MAY
   OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER MORE WELL-DEVELOPED
   SUPERCELLS.
   
   DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY ACROSS NE LA
   WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN MS. OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS SHOWS A 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER SWRN MS WITH
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES PRESENT ACROSS CNTRL MS EXTENDING
   WWD INTO NE LA AND EWD INTO SRN AL. IN ADDITION...JACKSON MS WSR-88D
   CURRENTLY SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SPREADING SWD ACROSS CNTRL MS
   ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. AS SUPERCELLS MOVE EWD ALONG THIS
   BOUNDARY...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BECOME ENHANCED LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE. THE STRONG TORNADO
   POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST WITH SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN
   DISCRETE AND TRACK ESEWD INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE
   INSTABILITY/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALSO SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL AND WIND
   DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...SHV...
   
   31338790 31549126 31659229 32209266 32779241 32929119
   32818921 32638804 32418715 31858699

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0833
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0323 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE AL...SRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 102023Z - 102230Z
   
   A LONG-LIVED LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN GA THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE
   LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. A WW MAY BECOME
   NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION BY 21Z.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT
   EXTENDING WEST TO EAST LOCATED ACROSS SCNTRL GA AND ERN AL. THE MCS
   IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
   MID TO UPPER 60S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. THIS ALONG
   WITH SHARP PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE MCS SHOULD SUSTAIN THE
   CONVECTIVE LINE EWD ACROSS SRN GA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOWN ON WSR-88D VWPS WILL BE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. IN
   ADDITION...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE
   POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...
   
   31218323 31458443 31948561 32508584 33208533 33248442
   33088368 32818299 32548259 31518276

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0834
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN IL...WRN KY AND FAR SRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 102042Z - 102245Z
   
   THREAT FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
   TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA AND A WW MAY BE
   NEEDED BY 22Z.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE AIRMASS WAS SLOWLY RECOVERING
   OVER WRN KY AND FAR SRN IL WITH MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. A SFC LOW
   WAS LOCATED OVER FAR SRN IL JUST NW OF PAH AND WILL CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP ENEWD AHEAD OF A VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF SERN MO. LOW LEVEL
   FLOW WAS RESPONDING TO THE APPROACHING VORT MAX WITH INCREASING SLY
   WINDS NOTED AT BOTH THE PADUCAH AND BOWLING GREEN VWP/S. LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR WAS INCREASING AS A RESULT...WITH THE BOWLING GREEN VWP
   INDICATING AROUND 150 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH.  LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WAS
   BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENEWD FROM THE SFC
   LOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WHERE THE NRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS
   EXISTED. RECENT TRENDS IN VIS SAT DATA SUGGESTS THAT HEATING WILL
   LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. IF THIS DOES
   OCCUR...INSTABILITY WOULD LIKEWISE INCREASE AND A TORNADO WW MAY BE
   NEEDED.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...
   
   38298751 37908841 37638883 37228882 36998815 37188744
   37538683 38008664 38238659

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0835
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0504 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 336...
   
   VALID 102204Z - 110000Z
   
   CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD AROUND 25 KTS
   ACROSS WW 336 OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. MAIN SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE.
   
   LATEST RADAR DATA FROM HOUSTON SHOWS SEVERAL SUPERCELL STORMS MOVING
   SEWD AROUND 25 KTS. THIS MORE DEVIANT STORM MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO
   AID IN GREATER LOW LEVEL SRH...WITH RECENT MODIFIED HGX VWP
   INDICATING AROUND 150 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH. THUS ALONG WITH THE
   THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT
   BEHIND THE INITIAL STORMS ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND AHEAD OF THE
   SFC FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL STORMS CIRRUS CANOPY WAS REDUCING
   HEATING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND LIMITING THE PROBABILITY OF THIS
   OCCURRENCE ATTM.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...
   
   30609461 29709653 29509663 27949663 29309463

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0836
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0605 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA AND FAR SWRN/S-CNTRL MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 102305Z - 110030Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF WW/S 332 AND 334 BETWEEN
   23 AND 00Z AND A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   AS OF 2245Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF
   STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS FROM NEWTON COUNTY SWWD INTO HARDIN AND
   LIBERTY COUNTIES IN FAR SERN TX...WITH MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OVER
   RAPIDES PARISH IN E-CNTRL LA.  AMBIENT AIR MASS AHEAD OF THESE
   STORMS REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS
   EVENING WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3500 J/KG.  CURRENT WINNFIELD LA
   PROFILER INDICATES THAT DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE LARGELY WSWLY
   WITH A RESULTANT STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH...AS SUGGESTED BY RECENT STORM
   SPLIT OVER RAPIDES PARISH.
   
   LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION IS
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 11/03Z AS COLD
   FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SEWD.  SUPERCELL/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
   WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WITHIN WARM SECTOR AHEAD
   OF COLD FRONT...WHILE STORMS FORMING ALONG FRONT WILL LIKELY BE MORE
   OF A LINEAR MODE WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   WEATHER THREATS.
   
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW WILL LIKELY BECOME
   NECESSARY IF STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH SRN
   PORTIONS OF WW 332/334.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
   29749419 30979198 31309100 31408987 30558974 29909015
   29589141 29459379