Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

[TheEuropean]

NRL now 75Kt and 967mb.

[CHRISTY]

Probability of tropical storm winds in 48 hours....

[senorpepr]

dont they do the 6-hr advisory schedule? If so, wheres the 18Z forecast graphic?

They are on a 6-hr schedule. 03Z, 09Z, 15Z, and 21Z. The latest advisory was sent out at 15Z using the 12Z position. The next advisory will be out at 21Z using the 18Z position.

[Scorpion]

Hong Kong will be fine. If this gets anywhere near Hong Kong it would be a Cat 1 at best.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 009
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 10.3N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 128.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 11.1N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.0N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 12.7N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 13.1N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 13.8N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 14.5N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.2N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 10.5N 128.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.



TYPHOON CHANCHUN.

[CHRISTY]

This is from The Japan Meteorological Agency...

[Scorpion]

The rapid deepening talk was a little premature.

[senorpepr]

The rapid deepening talk was a little premature.

Of course it was. No models were calling for explosive cyclogenesis nor were the JMA, PAGASA, or JTWC. I think people were trigger happy with the first named storm of the season.

[Jam151]

I think more people are more concerned as to what will happen beyond 72 hours. The latest JTWC forecast is more conservative at the end of the period because the track is slower. I know 90 knots was more than I anticipated for the Philippines.

[CHRISTY]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 970.1mb/ 84.8kt

[CHRISTY]

[senorpepr]

Official strength: ~57KT (US 1-min standard)

WTPQ20 RJTD 102100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 10.5N 128.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 112100UTC 13.0N 124.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
45HF 121800UTC 14.7N 119.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
69HF 131800UTC 15.6N 117.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT =

[senorpepr]

BTW, PAGASA's (Philippines) estimate for wind speed is 85 km/hr (10-min average). That would equate to around 60 mph using a US standard 1-min average.

[Jam151]

BTW, PAGASA's (Philippines) estimate for wind speed is 85 km/hr (10-min average). That would equate to around 60 mph using a US standard 1-min average.

With an eyewall on AMSU multispectral imagery? wow.

[CHRISTY]

[senorpepr]

BTW, PAGASA's (Philippines) estimate for wind speed is 85 km/hr (10-min average). That would equate to around 60 mph using a US standard 1-min average.

With an eyewall on AMSU multispectral imagery? wow.

To be honest with you... I have no clue why JTWC is saying 75KT. JMA is say around 60KT, PAGASA is say around 55KT. SSD just raised the Dvorak estimate to T4, which is 65KT.

[CHRISTY]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 970.1mb/ 84.8kt

[senorpepr]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 970.1mb/ 84.8kt

Yeah... that tends to overdo cyclones, especially in the Eastern Hemisphere.

[wxmann_91]

The rapid deepening talk was a little premature.

Of course it was. No models were calling for explosive cyclogenesis nor were the JMA, PAGASA, or JTWC. I think people were trigger happy with the first named storm of the season.

I had no access to WPAC models

[senorpepr]

The rapid deepening talk was a little premature.

Of course it was. No models were calling for explosive cyclogenesis nor were the JMA, PAGASA, or JTWC. I think people were trigger happy with the first named storm of the season.

I had no access to WPAC models

Try this: http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html