Does anyone else think this is a lot.......

[dixiebreeze]

of activity this early in the African interior?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet7n.GIF

[benny]

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaf ... /m.3d.html

Certainly has been a lot more convection than normal over the Guinea region of W Africa.. (the purple colors that denote less outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)). What does it mean? Just means we are in the active phase of the MJO or ISO (intraseasonal oscillation). Probably will stay that way for at least another week or so before surface ridging restrengthens in the E Atlc.

[CHRISTY]

looks quiet active for being may.we will probably have an invest out from this area in a few weeks.


you can see on this grafic there is purple showing around that area


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrfpr.gif

But shear is way to high across the atlantic atleast out threw 72 hrs.
if anything does try to form it will probably have to remain at a low latitude.

[Rainband]

way too early. If anything forms it will not likely be there

[hurricanetrack]

GFS has suggested development near Yucatan in two weeks. Yes, I know, two weeks. Say it like Homer would.... "two weeks".

[CHRISTY]

GFS has suggested development near Yucatan in two weeks. Yes, I know, two weeks. Say it like Homer would.... "two weeks".

yes it has...its been hinting of some kind of development in a few places.

[Rainband]

GFS has suggested development near Yucatan in two weeks. Yes, I know, two weeks. Say it like Homer would.... "two weeks".

That is the most legit area if we were to have anything this time of year.

[george_r_1961]

We frequently see waves rolling off of Africa in April and May but rarely if ever do they develop. Things seem to quiet down out there in June leading many to say "season cancel". Development in that area typically occurs after August with an occasional July storm (Bertha 1996). Notice that most of these waves look quite healthy until they roll offshore than they poof.

[CHRISTY]

I think this year we will not have a mid atlantic trough and as soon as the ITCZ gets futher north the capeverde season might be in full affect.and then this will open the doors for a possible EASTCOAST landfall.

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS has suggested development near Yucatan in two weeks. Yes, I know, two weeks. Say it like Homer would.... "two weeks".

Ya know I have noticed that also in the last 3 runs.

[CHRISTY]

Here are few images of what the GFS has been showing in the past 3 runs.
looks like something near the yucatan then it moves into florida....

[george_r_1961]

GFS has gone bonkers a few times already...gonna take this with a grain of salt till I see something viable

[AussieMark]

remember how accurate GFS has been in the last few seasons

[CHRISTY]

ITCZ Grafic...

[boca]

Here are few images of what the GFS has been showing in the past 3 runs.
looks like something near the yucatan then it moves into florida....

I hope the GFS is right for a change we can use the wet stuff real badly.

[CHRISTY]

Here is better Up to Date Grafic...

[no advance]

Sorry Christy get over it. No invest near Africa for at least 2 months. Watch the western carib or Gulf. Have a nice night folks.

[gatorcane]

All,

Africa looks impressive tonight but like many members have pointed out - nothing *should* get going until July at the earliest but more like August.

[CHRISTY]

according to this model some rain around but not much for southflorida threw MAY 17...

[gatorcane]

according to this model some rain around but not much for southflorida threw MAY 17...

No rain is a bit disconcerting, however, remember some extremely dry years like 1998 and we saw no hurricane threats.