Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

[Scorpion]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 970.1mb/ 84.8kt

Pretty unimpressive considering its strength bias. It gave TC Monica 864 mb correct?

[senorpepr]

Officially, Chanchu is around 63KT (adjusting to US 1-min standard)

WTPQ20 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 11.0N 128.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 120000UTC 13.2N 123.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
48HF 130000UTC 15.0N 119.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
72HF 140000UTC 15.6N 116.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT =

[CHRISTY]

[HurricaneHunter914]

Manila should watch out since it is highly populated.

[AussieMark]

wasn't there a rule about posting images?

I'm on broadband so it doesn't bother me just mentioning the fact

[senorpepr]

Manila should watch out since it is highly populated.

Not just Manila (with around 1.5M people), but it's neighboring city, Quezon City. It is more populated with around 2.2M people.

[HURAKAN]

Manila should watch out since it is highly populated.

Not just Manila (with around 1.5M people), but it's neighboring city, Quezon City. It is more populated with around 2.2M people.

Always with tropical systems impacting the Luzon area the fact that the region is so mountainous and so populated that makes the threat of deaths by flooding and landslides probably the highest of any area affected by tropical cyclones in the world. Even though the wind could play a minor role, the rain is always the most important factor with tropical systems affecting the northern Philippines.

[wxmann_91]

The rapid deepening talk was a little premature.

Of course it was. No models were calling for explosive cyclogenesis nor were the JMA, PAGASA, or JTWC. I think people were trigger happy with the first named storm of the season.

I had no access to WPAC models

Try this: http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html

Thanks.

BTW, my initial bullish thoughts were based on my observations of an anticyclone over the system. The environment looked favorable.

[senorpepr]

The rapid deepening talk was a little premature.

Of course it was. No models were calling for explosive cyclogenesis nor were the JMA, PAGASA, or JTWC. I think people were trigger happy with the first named storm of the season.

I had no access to WPAC models

Try this: http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html

Thanks.

BTW, my initial bullish thoughts were based on my observations of an anticyclone over the system. The environment looked favorable.

You earn some credit for at least having sound meteorological reasoning.

[HouTXmetro]

OH oh, Manilla better get prepared!

[JonathanBelles]

does anyone have the latest advisory?

[senorpepr]

Still waiting on the official advisory, but JTWC has...

WTPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 10.9N 128.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 128.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 11.9N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.7N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 13.3N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 13.7N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.5N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.5N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.5N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 127.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.//

NNNN

[HURAKAN]

11/0233 UTC 11.2N 127.7E T4.5/4.5 CHANCHU -- West Pacific Ocean

[senorpepr]

PAGASA has the wind speed at ~58 mph (US 1-min avg)

Officially... JMA is still at 63 KT (US 1-min avg)

WTPQ20 RJTD 110300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110300UTC 11.3N 127.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 120300UTC 13.7N 122.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
45HF 130000UTC 15.0N 119.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
69HF 140000UTC 15.6N 116.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT =

[CHRISTY]

Modelled wind field at 12 hours...




Modelled wind field at 36 hours lead...



Modelled wind field at 48 hours...



Modelled wind field at 72 hours...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm sorry everyone my computer was not working for a few days, I will be on to watch this now.

[SouthFloridawx]

Welcome back Matt!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The cdo is very ragged and the 85h data shows only a half a eye. I do not believe that 4.5t I think its way to high. I think its around 55 knots/65 mph.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rgms5n.GIF


By the latest Ir the cdo is becoming defined and developing deeper convection. Maybe 60 to 65 knots.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

WTPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 11.4N 126.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 126.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.2N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 12.9N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 13.7N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.4N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.4N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.6N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.3N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 126.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z,
120300Z AND 120900Z.//

NNNN