Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

[Coredesat]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 11.5N 127.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM

FORECAST
24HF 120600UTC 13.4N 121.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
48HF 130600UTC 15.1N 116.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
72HF 140600UTC 15.7N 114.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Interesting...


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 MAY 2006 Time : 090000 UTC
Lat : 12:21:33 N Lon : 126:27:45 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 963.7mb/ 90.0kt


Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +9.7mb

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Eye Temp : -83.5C Cloud Region Temp : -83.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF


Also the cdo is becoming more round with a pin hole eye forming. Maybe starting to strengthen.

[Dave C]

here's a reporting station near the landfall point.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/RPVM.html
It's located on the island directly west of the first landfall point.

[HurricaneHunter914]

So Chanchu has made its first landfall?

[HURAKAN]

So Chanchu has made its first landfall?

No.

[CHRISTY]

[no advance]

Alot of brave Americans died in those straits during WWII.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't see how it could move over those islands in hold onto its 75 knots?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Quote From HURAKAN: No.

Okay I got confused. As Chanchu continues her rage I noticed in this link
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rgms5n.GIF
that there are two other systems far way on Chanchu's East side. Any threats?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

19 north/148 east looks interesting...Could be the next one.

[HURAKAN]

Quote From HURAKAN: No.

Okay I got confused. As Chanchu continues her rage I noticed in this link
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rgms5n.GIF
that there are two other systems far way on Chanchu's East side. Any threats?

As of today, none of those systems are forecasted to develop.

[CHRISTY]

ONCE THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN A POLEWARD DIRECTION TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE CAUSED BY A TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHEASTERN ASIA. TY 02W IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING AGAIN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
PHILIPPINES AND ENTERS A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFI-
CATION.


This from their discussion...

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm interested in the one at 8 north/166 east. Has some good banding features to it.

[HURAKAN]

DO I C U?

[cycloneye]

SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 012
WTPN31 PGTW 111500
1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.1N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 13.9N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.6N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.0N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.8N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.8N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.9N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 125.3E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[senorpepr]

Official advisory has Chanchu still at 63KT. (1-min)

791
WTPQ20 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 12.1N 125.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 121200UTC 13.8N 120.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
48HF 131200UTC 15.2N 116.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
72HF 141200UTC 15.9N 113.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT =

PAGASA has the storm at around 68KT (1-min)


Tropical Storm "CALOY" has gained more strength and is now off the eastern coast of Northern Samar.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 100 kms east southeast of Catarman, Northern Samar or
200 kms east southeast of Legaspi City
Coordinates: 12.3°N, 125.6°E
Strength: maximum sustained winds of 110 kph near the center and
gustiness of up to 140 kph
Movement: west northwest at 19 kph
Forecast Positions / Outlook: By midnight:
expected to make landfall over Northern Samar
Friday morning:
will pass through Sorsogon and Albay
Friday evening:
it will be in the vicinity of Quezon
Saturday evening:
290 kms west of Dagupan City
Sunday evening:
670 kms west northwest of Laoag City

[SouthFloridawx]

So can Chanchu see the light? Has an eye poked out yet? Kind of looks like it from the image above.

[senorpepr]

Storm2k's Coverage of Chanchu...

http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/wpac.htm

[HurricaneBill]

I don't see how it could move over those islands in hold onto its 75 knots?

Some typhoons have actually STRENGTHENED moving over the Philippines. A recent example was Typhoon Sibyl in 1995.

As Sibyl moved over the Philippines, her windfield contracted and tightened the pressure gradient.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Its because the Philippines is an Archipelago with many large areas of water big enough for a typhoon to keep or enlarge its strength.