Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #241 Postby **senorpepr** » Thu May 11, 2006 3:41 pm

Official intensity remains at around 63KT. (1-min average)

WTPQ20 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111800UTC 12.4N 124.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 121800UTC 14.2N 119.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
48HF 131800UTC 15.4N 115.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
72HF 141800UTC 16.1N 113.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT =

#242 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu May 11, 2006 4:00 pm

LOOKING REALLY WELL-ORGANIZED.

Scorpion · #243 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu May 11, 2006 4:18 pm

I disagree. It looks like a large blob.

#244 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu May 11, 2006 5:54 pm

#245 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu May 11, 2006 5:56 pm

The forecast is calling for some pretty good intesification down that road to 125Kts.

Jim Cantore · #246 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Thu May 11, 2006 7:11 pm

Look out Hong Kong?

#247 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu May 11, 2006 7:28 pm

Track and Positions of Tropical Cyclone

Severe Tropical Storm CHANCHU
at 05:00 HKT 12 May 2006
(12.6 N, 124 E)

http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc_pos.htm

The Hong Kong Observatory disagrees a little bit with the JTWC track!

Jim Cantore · #248 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Thu May 11, 2006 7:29 pm

Of course they disagree, I wouldn't want to forcast a 140mph storm into my town

Trugunzn · #249 Postby **Trugunzn** » Thu May 11, 2006 7:31 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:Look out Hong Kong?

thats not good!

Whats the strongest typhoon to hit Hong kong? Its only happened couple times

This reminds me the show the Perfect disaster when a super typhoon heads to hong kong!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #250 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu May 11, 2006 7:37 pm

The overall cdo looks a little ragged but the 85h data shows a partly closed eye. In a much more developed inner core then even last night had. I would say 60 knots at this time...In weaking to 50 knots by the time it moves back over water. Overall nice outflow pattern.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #251 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu May 11, 2006 7:37 pm

The overall cdo looks a little ragged but the 85h data shows a partly closed eye. In a much more developed inner core then even last night had. I would say 60 knots at this time...In weaking to 50 knots by the time it moves back over water. Overall nice outflow pattern.

#252 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu May 11, 2006 7:38 pm

#253 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu May 11, 2006 7:41 pm

on the other hand satelite intensity showing something different.

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 MAY 2006 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 12:38:29 N Lon : 123:38:57 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 968.2mb/ 84.8kt

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +9.4mb

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 5.0 5.0

Eye Temp : -67.9C Cloud Region Temp : -72.6C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : WEAKEN

Can we get wind and latest conditions reports out of the Philipines?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #254 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu May 11, 2006 9:45 pm

The latest Jtwc forecast puts it up to 115 knots. But on the other hand Typhoon Roke fall apart once it got into the China sea.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_p ... /track.gif

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #255 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu May 11, 2006 9:51 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 12.8N 123.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 123.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 13.4N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.1N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.8N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.2N 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.8N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.2N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.1N 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 123.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.
//

NNNN

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #256 Postby **senorpepr** » Thu May 11, 2006 9:54 pm

Official intensity has dropped slightly to ~57KT (1-min) while PAGASA is showing ~62KT.

WTPQ20 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 12.6N 123.6E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 130000UTC 14.2N 119.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
48HF 140000UTC 15.4N 115.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
72HF 150000UTC 16.6N 112.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT =

Severe Weather Bulletin Number TEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "CALOY" {CHANCHU}
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Friday, 12 May 2006 Tropical Storm "CALOY" has slightly weakened as it made landfall and crossed Northern Samar last night.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 a.m.) 50 kms west southwest of Catarman, Northern Samar or
70 kms east of Masbate

Coordinates: 12.4°N, 124.1°E
Strength: maximum sustained winds of 100 kph near the center and
gustiness of up to 130 kph
Movement: west northwest at 22 kph
Forecast Positions / Outlook: Friday morning:
expected to cross Burias Island
Friday afternoon:
it will be in the vicinity of Marinduque
Saturday morning:
150 kms west of Metro Manila
Sunday morning:
540 kms west northwest of Dagupan City
Monday morning:
910 kms west northwest of Laoag City

#257 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu May 11, 2006 9:58 pm

Thanks Mike for posting the latest so I changed again the title of thread.

HurricaneHunter914 · #258 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu May 11, 2006 9:59 pm

Chanchu's wind speeds are all over the place.

CHRISTY · #259 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu May 11, 2006 10:00 pm

HurricaneHunter914 · #260 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu May 11, 2006 10:02 pm

A monster is in the making for Chanchu.

Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

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