Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

[senorpepr]

Chanchu's wind speeds are all over the place.

Actually... the wind speed has maintained around 63KT for sometime until the latest advisory where it dropped to 57KT. Officially... Chanchu was never a typhoon.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

63 knots is one knot below typhoon. It possibly was but no recon so just another est.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This has nice banding/outflow very very nice. Once back over the south sea with the 5 to 10 knot shear...I expect a slow strengthen to take place. Maybe not as big as the JTWC but who knows...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/02W.GIF

[senorpepr]

63 knots is one knot below typhoon. It possibly was but no recon so just another est.

63 knots is an adjustment to 1-min standard. Officially, the winds were 55kt (10-min) where typhoon status would be 65KT (still 10-min). Therefore, it was a bit below typhoon status.

[Jim Cantore]

Hong Kong isnt out of the woods, I'm not getting that sick feeling that I got with the Big 3 last year before they exploded and struck.

[cycloneye]

So Mike Chanchu has been all the time a tropical storm even though yes the non-official JTWC had it at 75kts earlier.? I ask as I dont know much about the tropics at that part of the world and I know about the battle of agencies doing different forecasts.

[senorpepr]

So Mike Chanchu has been all the time a tropical storm even though yes the non-official JTWC had it at 75kts earlier.? I ask as I dont know much about the tropics at that part of the world and I know about the battle of agencies doing different forecasts.

Right. Officially, Chanchu has been nothing but a tropical storm. Even PAGASA (in the Philippines) continued to call it a tropical storm. JTWC was the only agency calling it a typhoon.

For what it's worth, it seemed like satellite estimates were right around where PAGASA was saying. JMA was a little low and JTWC was a little high when compared to the satellite estimates.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So Mike Chanchu has been all the time a tropical storm even though yes the non-official JTWC had it at 75kts earlier.? I ask as I dont know much about the tropics at that part of the world and I know about the battle of agencies doing different forecasts.

The offical agenie uses 10 minute winds which are a bunch of wind gust tied together to get a wind speed. What I don't understand is that can move around alot. Also t numbers out of sab had 4.5=75 knots one minute winds which is a very very good system used by the nhc to put winds on Atlantic/Eastern Pacific system. The nhc has the most knowledgeable forecasters on this planet in the t numbers are very very good.

I personally think when it was developing at eye maybe 65 to 70 knots. But remember they are using the 10 minute which is lower.

[CHRISTY]

Hong Kong isnt out of the woods, I'm not getting that sick feeling that I got with the Big 3 last year before they exploded and struck.

Nope they arent out of the woods!

[CHRISTY]

I think she is heading for HONGKONG or atleast come very close!

[HurricaneHunter914]

Whoa is that a Cat-4 in the picture? With Hong Kong's skyscrapers a Cat-4 would cause more than a billion dollars in damage. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[Scorpion]

Hong Kong has never been hit by a significant typhoon. I think they will be safe this time.

[gatorcane]

really, why not. Why doesn't Hong Kong get hit?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Theres always a first time for everything. But its way to early to tell yet.

[senorpepr]

So Mike Chanchu has been all the time a tropical storm even though yes the non-official JTWC had it at 75kts earlier.? I ask as I dont know much about the tropics at that part of the world and I know about the battle of agencies doing different forecasts.

The offical agenie uses 10 minute winds which are a bunch of wind gust tied together to get a wind speed. What I don't understand is that can move around alot. Also t numbers out of sab had 4.5=75 knots one minute winds which is a very very good system used by the nhc to put winds on Atlantic/Eastern Pacific system. The nhc has the most knowledgeable forecasters on this planet in the t numbers are very very good.

I personally think when it was developing at eye maybe 65 to 70 knots. But remember they are using the 10 minute which is lower.

C'mon, Matt. You can't say numbers that are based for Atlantic and EPAC systems easily translate to WPAC systems. The observations (even when extrapolated) didn't support JTWC's figures. JMA is the best when it comes to typhoons. Also, I believe you have a slight misunderstanding on 10-minute winds. It isn't a bunch of gusts tied together.

In my professional opinion, JTWC's intensity was way too high, as usual. I'm sorry if that upsets you, but that's how I see it.

[Jam151]

Yeah, the SCS is highly favorable and has been for several days already. The globals have been all over this from the start.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I also believe that it was to high but more like 65 knots instead of the 75 knots.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

2003 close to,,,
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_p ... /track.gif

[Jam151]

I also believe that it was to high but more like 65 knots instead of the 75 knots.

The difference is too minuscule to debate when the available evidence is so subjective. All satellite estimates over the last few days have flip flopped between 4.0-4.5 (65-75 kots).

[senorpepr]

I also believe that it was to high but more like 65 knots instead of the 75 knots.

Well... that's what JMA said, basically. 63 knots (when converted to 1-min average). What I was getting at earlier was that officially, a storm doesn't become a typhoon until it reaches around 73KT (which is 64KT 10-min average).