Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

MiamiensisWx · #301 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri May 12, 2006 1:14 pm

That's in gusts, SouthFloridawx. The sustained winds are forecasted in that graphic to increase to 115KT (135MPH).

#302 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri May 12, 2006 1:17 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:That's in gusts, SouthFloridawx. The sustained winds are forecasted in that graphic to increase to 115KT (135MPH).

Yes your right I see that now. I misread it but, still 140KTS of gust = 110-120KTS sustained that's a pretty powerful storm @ 126.5 - 138 MPH. Let's hope for thier sake it doesn't go through Rapid Intesification.

#303 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri May 12, 2006 1:29 pm

LOOKING GOOD OVER THE ARCHIPELAGO.

CHRISTY · #304 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri May 12, 2006 2:21 pm

wow!

#305 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri May 12, 2006 2:27 pm

90kts-954mb. GETTING STRONGER!!!

CHRISTY · #306 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri May 12, 2006 2:37 pm

#307 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri May 12, 2006 2:44 pm

China coming more in line on this storm..

MiamiensisWx · #308 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri May 12, 2006 2:48 pm

Latest imagery

Getting ready to move offshore!

Scorpion · #309 Postby **Scorpion** » Fri May 12, 2006 2:49 pm

HURAKAN wrote:

90kts-954mb. GETTING STRONGER!!!

Thats not the actual intensity.

#310 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri May 12, 2006 2:51 pm

correct cimss has it at the following however it is unofficial and only satelite intensity.

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 MAY 2006 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 12:59:43 N Lon : 120:58:56 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 963.1mb/ 90.0kt

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +9.1mb

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Eye Temp : -72.0C Cloud Region Temp : -66.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF

#311 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri May 12, 2006 3:09 pm

DO I C U? Or is that an island!!

Epsilon_Fan · #312 Postby **Epsilon_Fan** » Fri May 12, 2006 3:22 pm

thats about the size of Wilma's eye at her peak... but I think its an island?

Scorpion · #313 Postby **Scorpion** » Fri May 12, 2006 3:22 pm

It doesn't have an eye yet. It is barely a typhoon.

#314 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri May 12, 2006 4:07 pm

TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 017
WTPN31 PGTW 122100
1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 12.7N 121.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 121.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 12.9N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 13.2N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 13.5N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 14.2N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.0N 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.6N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 21.2N 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 120.8E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

18:00z Warning 17 has it at 85kts.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #315 Postby **senorpepr** » Fri May 12, 2006 4:16 pm

No change from JMA: still ~63KT (1-min avg) for Severe Tropical Storm Chanchu.

WTPQ20 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 12.9N 121.2E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 220NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 14.1N 117.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
48HF 141800UTC 14.3N 114.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
72HF 151800UTC 16.8N 113.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT =

HurricaneHunter914 · #316 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri May 12, 2006 4:28 pm

Scorpion wrote:It doesn't have an eye yet. It is barely a typhoon.

Barely a typhoon? She is at 85 kts. right now.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #317 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri May 12, 2006 4:33 pm

The 85h shows that she now has a soild eyewall...And very deep convection over its core. I would say 75 to 80 knots...

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #318 Postby **senorpepr** » Fri May 12, 2006 4:34 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:It doesn't have an eye yet. It is barely a typhoon.

Barely a typhoon? She is at 85 kts. right now.

Officially she's not even a typhoon.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #319 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri May 12, 2006 4:36 pm

What do's it have to do to become a typhoon? Develop a clear eye??? 85h shows a well defined eye. I say 80 knots...

HurricaneHunter914 · #320 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri May 12, 2006 4:37 pm

HOW? She is at 100 mph at she isn't a Typhhon? (Well http://www.wunderground.com said she was at 100 mph).

Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

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