Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

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HURAKAN
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#321 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 12, 2006 4:41 pm

senorpepr wrote:
Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:It doesn't have an eye yet. It is barely a typhoon.


Barely a typhoon? She is at 85 kts. right now.


Officially she's not even a typhoon.


This is my question. If Dvorak indicates 5.0 which means 90 knots, then when it's valid to believe Dvorak and when isn't? I know the JTWC isn't official, neither Hong Kong, neither PAGASA, but to speak the truth JMA shouldn't either be completely believed when their advisories are based on estimates just like the other offices.
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#322 Postby senorpepr » Fri May 12, 2006 4:41 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:What do's it have to do to become a typhoon? Develop a clear eye??? 85h shows a well defined eye. I say 80 knots...


Well, first, at 18Z Chanchu didn't have that feature on infrared. Secondly, it still doesn't have a clear eye, although it is consolidating. Right now, I'd say Chanchu is around 70KT... maybe 75KT. We'll see what JMA says fairly soon...
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#323 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri May 12, 2006 4:41 pm

Hurricane_hunter that is the JTWC that is saying 100 mph. The offical which I say is going a good amount to low is saying below typhoon.
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#324 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 12, 2006 4:42 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:HOW? She is at 100 mph at she isn't a Typhhon? (Well http://www.wunderground.com said she was at 100 mph).


Remember that JMA is the official office here and they still say it's a tropical storm. I don't believe that, by the way. This looks as a typhoon as any other I have seen.
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#325 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri May 12, 2006 4:43 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:It doesn't have an eye yet. It is barely a typhoon.


Barely a typhoon? She is at 85 kts. right now.


Officially she's not even a typhoon.


This is my question. If Dvorak indicates 5.0 which means 90 knots, then when it's valid to believe Dvorak and when isn't? I know the JTWC isn't official, neither Hong Kong, neither PAGASA, but to speak the truth JMA shouldn't either be completely believed when their advisories are based on estimates just like the other offices.



Thats what I'v been trying to get across. Even so the Dvorak is most likely not very good in the western Pacific like Senroperp has said...
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#326 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri May 12, 2006 4:43 pm

Well, first, at 18Z Chanchu didn't have that feature on infrared. Secondly, it still doesn't have a clear eye, although it is consolidating. Right now, I'd say Chanchu is around 70KT... maybe 75KT. We'll see what JMA says fairly soon...


Those are just estimates. They don't have recon that checks wind speeds. How do we know if the JMA is trustworthy? What they are doing is looking at the system on SAT and guessing the wind speeds.
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#327 Postby Jam151 » Fri May 12, 2006 4:44 pm

Even though JMA is the RSMC it's not going to beat the JTWC on every storm. PAGASA and JMA are both carrying it as a tropical storm, and that's probably why a lot of everyday operations are still going on in the Philippines, or trying too. A ferry just sunk off the Philippine coast, killing 19.
Last edited by Jam151 on Fri May 12, 2006 4:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#328 Postby senorpepr » Fri May 12, 2006 4:44 pm

HURAKAN wrote:This is my question. If Dvorak indicates 5.0 which means 90 knots, then when it's valid to believe Dvorak and when isn't? I know the JTWC isn't official, neither Hong Kong, neither PAGASA, but to speak the truth JMA shouldn't either be completely believed when their advisories are based on estimates just like the other offices.


First, those Dvorak estimates are made for Altantic and EPAC storms. Because of the lower background pressure, Dvorak estimates tend to overdo WPAC storms. Furthermore, JMA has a GREAT deal more experience than the JTWC does. Also, JMA and PAGASA have been staying pretty close. Normally, only JTWC is the high estimater.
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#329 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri May 12, 2006 4:46 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:
Well, first, at 18Z Chanchu didn't have that feature on infrared. Secondly, it still doesn't have a clear eye, although it is consolidating. Right now, I'd say Chanchu is around 70KT... maybe 75KT. We'll see what JMA says fairly soon...


Those are just estimates. They don't have recon that checks wind speeds. How do we know if the JMA is trustworthy?


Truthfully we don't have soild facts...I don't went to bash them because they do a good job on track...But most western Pacific systems are like throwing a dart at a dart board when it comes to how strong they are.
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#330 Postby senorpepr » Fri May 12, 2006 4:51 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:
Well, first, at 18Z Chanchu didn't have that feature on infrared. Secondly, it still doesn't have a clear eye, although it is consolidating. Right now, I'd say Chanchu is around 70KT... maybe 75KT. We'll see what JMA says fairly soon...


Those are just estimates. They don't have recon that checks wind speeds. How do we know if the JMA is trustworthy? What they are doing is looking at the system on SAT and guessing the wind speeds.


JMA isn't "just guessing the wind speeds." They actually are comparing surface observations (from ships and from land) and extrapolating them into the storm. Simply put... this storm isn't nearly as strong as JTWC is saying. Furthermore, look at the storm -- in my experience in WPAC storms, this is weaker than what the JTWC is saying. Granted, I think it's a little stronger than what JMA is saying.

Facts are... JMA is saying ~63 KT.
PAGASA is saying ~59KT.
JTWC is saying 90KT.

Who would you want to trust? The two agencies that are close to the storm with the greatest amount of experience (JMA and PAGASA) or the JTWC with limited experience. (Sorry, but the operational forecasters only have a couple of years of experience.)
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#331 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri May 12, 2006 4:51 pm

I think there should be Recon for the WPAC like the Atlantic, then the wind speeds can be accurate instead of mindless guessing.
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#332 Postby senorpepr » Fri May 12, 2006 4:53 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:I think there should be Recon for the WPAC like the Atlantic, then the wind speeds can be accurate instead of mindless guessing.


...and who's going to pay for it?
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#333 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri May 12, 2006 4:53 pm

Doesn't China have ALOT of money?
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#334 Postby clfenwi » Fri May 12, 2006 4:54 pm

THE BOATS WERE WARNED NOT to leave because of the storm but one of them allegedly still tried to sail away. It never reached its destination.

Carrying at least two dozen people, the motorized outrigger boat sank off Masbate as tropical storm "Caloy" raged through the Visayas and Bicol regions yesterday, drowning six people on board.

They were among the eight people killed in the path of the storm, which slammed across the central parts of the country yesterday, sinking at least three boats, causing landslides and flash floods, triggering power blackouts and destroying dozens of houses...


8 killed as'Caloy' hits Bicol, Visayas
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#335 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri May 12, 2006 4:59 pm

China has the second biggest GDP on earth next to the United states. I was looking at wiki to get that info. It is trying to become a super power it has more then enough money to do it. China can buy recon.
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#336 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri May 12, 2006 5:01 pm

Then how come it doesn't want to? They can save lives if they get recon. I mean people went outside during Typhoon Chanchu thinking it was a tropical storm and look what happened to them.
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#337 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri May 12, 2006 5:05 pm

We should offer to build 3 or 4 recon planes for China. They have the money to pay for them.
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#338 Postby senorpepr » Fri May 12, 2006 5:14 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:We should offer to build 3 or 4 recon planes for China. They have the money to pay for them.


Although China has the money, it's not very cost effective for them. Don't hold your breath.
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#339 Postby senorpepr » Fri May 12, 2006 5:15 pm

21Z official update: still ~63KT. They expect it to reach ~97KT (1-min) by Tuesday.

WTPQ20 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 13.0N 120.9E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 220NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 132100UTC 14.2N 117.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
45HF 141800UTC 14.3N 114.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
69HF 151800UTC 16.8N 113.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT =
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#340 Postby senorpepr » Fri May 12, 2006 5:18 pm

Oh... looking at the latest 85 Ghz data... no defined eye.
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