Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

[SouthFloridawx]

Oh... looking at the latest 85 Ghz data... no defined eye.

Plus it looks like the center is currently over land at the moment.

[Jim Cantore]

I have a feeling it might deepen at a decent pace, just a hunch

[senorpepr]

As of 18Z, Chanchu was about 120-130 miles away from Manila and Quezon City.

Of course, at this time, it's much closer. The estimate at 21Z puts it around 85-95 miles away.

Current wind in Manila... 20 mph sustained.

[SouthFloridawx]

As of 18Z, Chanchu was about 120-130 miles away from Manila and Quezon City.

Of course, at this time, it's much closer. The estimate at 21Z puts it around 85-95 miles away.

Current wind in Manila... 20 mph sustained.

Is there a website where we can view the current conditions there in the Philipines?

[Aquawind]

Wish we could arrange for those countries affected to combine efforts and funds/resources for RECON. Twood be nice.. Combine some other research data with the project as well.. Like Global Warming gosh forbid.. lol.

[senorpepr]

As of 18Z, Chanchu was about 120-130 miles away from Manila and Quezon City.

Of course, at this time, it's much closer. The estimate at 21Z puts it around 85-95 miles away.

Current wind in Manila... 20 mph sustained.

Is there a website where we can view the current conditions there in the Philipines?

You can check out PAGASA or use Wx Underground's Philippines page

[SouthFloridawx]

Thanks Senorpepr

[Aquawind]

Thanks Senorpepr

Ditto that ! Favorite added

[milankovitch]

I'm going to agree with Floyd given the pretty low shear it wouldn't surprise me if this storm intensified pretty quickly once it gets into open waters

[senorpepr]

http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/temp1t.png

Track guidance still shows Hong Kong in the "cone". NOGAPS and JTY (Japanese Typhoon Model) are the western-most scenarios, putting Chanchu just west of Hong Kong. Meanwhile, the Navy GFDL and UKMO are the eastern-most scenarios. JTWC's forecast is closest to the GFS solution (both standard and Fiorino vortex tracker).

[cycloneye]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 38&start=0



Thread #1 above.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 05&start=0



Thread #2 above.

A new thread about this dangerous system is now open for all to post graphics,sat images and discussions about the system.

[cycloneye]

Thread reached 10 pages so it's locked.A new thread has been created.

[Jim Cantore]

the GFS is taking it very close to hong kong

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Chanchu made landfall a few hours ago...It appears that it has become less organized with the 85h data no longer showing a eye. With a more banding type cdo...Latest I can tell I would put it from 70 knots earlier to around 55 knots now. It is moving to the west-northwest. It has just moved back into the china sea based on satellite. Expect strengthing with good outflow pattern + warm sst's/faverable upper levels. Expect it to restrengthen to 70 knots durning the next 12 hours. Then to 85 knots by 36 hours.

[senorpepr]

Yeah, Chanchu is definately weakening. The cloud-top temperatures have dramatically warmed from scattered pockets of -77°C (at around 12-15Z) to an isolated patch of -66°C within mostly -55°C to -60°C temperatures.

[senorpepr]

No significant change to the 00Z Official advisory. Still around 63KT (1-min)

WTPQ20 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 13.3N 120.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 240NM SOUTH 220NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 14.1N 117.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
48HF 150000UTC 14.5N 114.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
72HF 160000UTC 17.0N 113.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT =

[whereverwx]

Here are some updated loops on the system.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Even though Chanchu is a little disorganized it has very good banding features.

[senorpepr]

With the increased cloud-top temperatures, I'm sort of surprised JMA didn't drop the winds on Chanchu. Anyway... officially Chanchu remains at 63KT with PAGASA going with 68KT. (both 1-min winds)

WTPQ20 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 13.8N 119.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 280NM SOUTHWEST 220NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 140300UTC 14.4N 116.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
45HF 150000UTC 14.5N 114.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
69HF 160000UTC 17.0N 113.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT =


Severe Weather Bulletin Number FIFTEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "CALOY" {CHANCHU}
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Saturday, 13 May 2006 Tropical Storm "CALOY" has gained strength as it moves away from the islands of Mindoro.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 110 kms west of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro or
150 kms southwest of Metro Manila
Coordinates: 13.3°N, 120.2°E
Strength: maximum sustained winds of 110 kph near the center and
gustiness of up to 140 kph
Movement: west northwest at 15 kph
towards the South China Sea
Forecast Positions / Outlook: Sunday morning:
360 kms west of Metro Manila or
260 kms west southwest of Iba, Zambales
Monday morning:
570 kms west northwest of Iba, Zambales

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The eastern pacific systems almost looks better at this time.