Bird Flu Thread

Chat about anything and everything... (well almost anything) Whether it be the front porch or the pot belly stove or news of interest or a topic of your liking, this is the place to post it.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Janice
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4564
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 6:14 pm
Location: Puerto Rico
Contact:

#21 Postby Janice » Fri Mar 24, 2006 6:38 am

The Bird Flu will not be the only problem. If half or more people get sick or die from it right away, businesses will shut down. People will be afraid to go outside. People will panic and loot stores to stock up on food. There will be lines of people at doctors offices and hospitals looking for a vaccine. If it spreads across any country, it could be like a dooms day. People will also break into homes looking for food and fresh water. It could spread to pets who are outside.
0 likes   

User avatar
Cookiely
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3211
Age: 74
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 7:31 am
Location: Tampa, Florida

#22 Postby Cookiely » Sat Mar 25, 2006 4:15 pm

Janice wrote:The Bird Flu will not be the only problem. If half or more people get sick or die from it right away, businesses will shut down. People will be afraid to go outside. People will panic and loot stores to stock up on food. There will be lines of people at doctors offices and hospitals looking for a vaccine. If it spreads across any country, it could be like a dooms day. People will also break into homes looking for food and fresh water. It could spread to pets who are outside.

I have hopes because of our present technology that for the first time in history we can beat this thing without undo distruption in services. Major hospitals have monitoring equipment in place which will be triggered if a number of people come in with the same symptoms. CDC can act quickly to quarantine certain areas if needed. Food and water shouldn't be a problem. If people would prepare now, there shouldn't be panic. A supply of food, Gatorade, medicines, and masks on hand. In our area, Raymond James Stadium is the staging area for help in the event that massive inoculations and medical care become necessary. The only problem I foresee is the ability of families to give basic care to ill family members. It will be impossible for hospitals to take care of patients. Emergency rooms can't handle normal day to day influx of patients. In the event of a pandemic, it will be impossible.
0 likes   

User avatar
Cookiely
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3211
Age: 74
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 7:31 am
Location: Tampa, Florida

#23 Postby Cookiely » Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:37 pm

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/27/healt ... nted=print
Three months supply of food, water, and fuel. You have to be kidding!
0 likes   

User avatar
TexasStooge
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 38127
Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
Contact:

#24 Postby TexasStooge » Tue Apr 11, 2006 10:52 am

Engineers could aid bird flu vaccine effort

By Lisa Richwine

CLEVELAND, Ohio (Reuters) - Avian flu experts appealed on Monday to engineers -- a group largely left out of flu preparedness efforts -- to come up with potential breakthroughs for speeding vaccine production in case of a deadly pandemic.

The hope is that engineers could use their expertise in areas such as assembly lines and production techniques to help vaccine developers jump hurdles.

The matter has gained urgency as the H5N1 flu strain moves quickly among birds in Asia, Europe and Africa. Experts worry it could change to a form that spreads easily among people and kills millions.

An effective flu vaccine would be key to slowing the movement of the virus, but producing sufficient quantities would take time.

"We have so far a situation that is not satisfactory ... it's very difficult for many people to predict how much (vaccine) is going to be available two, three or even five months after a pandemic has emerged," said Klaus Stohr, head of the World Health Organization's influenza team.

It could take at least nine months to have 1 billion doses available for the world's 6.4 billion people, he said. "By this point in time, the virus may have gone around the world already twice," he said.

Stohr spoke to a meeting sponsored by the Institute of Medicine and the National Academy of Engineering. It was held on the campus of Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland.

The idea of turning to engineers emerged when some Case faculty heard Dr. Julie Gerberding, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, warn that a vaccine could not be produced fast enough during a flu pandemic.

"As engineers we sat there ... and said, 'Why can't we do that?'" said Dr. John Anderson, a chemical engineering professor at Case Western.

"Research from the engineering community needs to look at processes that have been entrenched, in a rut, for decades," said Patrick Scannon, chief scientific and medical officer for biotechnology company Xoma Ltd., a small biotechnology company.

In the meantime, governments have been urging companies to step up production capacity. Existing vaccine factories can make only 900 million doses of influenza vaccine globally -- far short of what would be needed in a pandemic when billions of people would need to be vaccinated.
0 likes   
Weather Enthusiast since 1991.
- Facebook
- Twitter

User avatar
azsnowman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8591
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 8:56 pm
Location: Pinetop Arizona. Elevation 7102' (54 miles west of NM border)

#25 Postby azsnowman » Tue Apr 11, 2006 1:46 pm

Cookiely wrote:http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/27/health/28qna.html?8dpc=&_r=1&pagewanted=print
Three months supply of food, water, and fuel. You have to be kidding!


I didn't register to read the article HOWEVER.........

We attended a meeting last night with our local hospital EMT (Emergency response team) and signed up to become a member, they were dispatched to Miss. during Katrina, GREAT buncha people.......
anyways, they told the team members to be prepared for ALL the services on the mountain to be shut down for at LEAST 3 months, maybe MORE! :cry:
0 likes   

User avatar
Cookiely
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3211
Age: 74
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 7:31 am
Location: Tampa, Florida

#26 Postby Cookiely » Tue Apr 11, 2006 3:32 pm

azsnowman wrote:
Cookiely wrote:http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/27/health/28qna.html?8dpc=&_r=1&pagewanted=print
Three months supply of food, water, and fuel. You have to be kidding!


I didn't register to read the article HOWEVER.........

We attended a meeting last night with our local hospital EMT (Emergency response team) and signed up to become a member, they were dispatched to Miss. during Katrina, GREAT buncha people.......
anyways, they told the team members to be prepared for ALL the services on the mountain to be shut down for at LEAST 3 months, maybe MORE! :cry:

Try this link. Its four pages long or I would copy and paste it.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/27/healt ... yt&emc=rss
What your telling me scares me to death. We can't even get people to prepare and have food and water for two weeks for hurricanes. There is no way the majority can purchase that much food, water and other basic necessities for that long. I think I better start buying some large quantities of rice and beans. Food is food. Maybe some shells for the shotgun, there's enough squirrels to last a few days. :cry:
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

#27 Postby P.K. » Tue Apr 11, 2006 5:28 pm

TexasStooge wrote:The virus prefers to infect cells in the lung instead of areas like the nose and windpipe, so it's not easily coughed or sneezed out into the air, new research says.


That is what our government has been saying with this dead swan that was found in Scotland with the disease. However they have said it may well have been washed up from abroad.
0 likes   

User avatar
LSU2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1711
Age: 57
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:01 pm
Location: Cut Off, Louisiana

#28 Postby LSU2001 » Tue Apr 18, 2006 3:44 pm

World Bank chief says bird flu epidemic would hit global economy

http://tinyurl.com/lg4eb

US Gears Up For Bird Flu Pandemic
http://tinyurl.com/lr2gw

Thought someone may want to read these stories.
both found on http://www.birdflubreakingnews.com/

Tim
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Cookiely
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3211
Age: 74
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 7:31 am
Location: Tampa, Florida

#29 Postby Cookiely » Tue Apr 18, 2006 5:11 pm

Many Health Care Workers Won't Show Up in Flu Pandemic
04.18.06, 12:00 AM ET

TUESDAY, April 18 (HealthDay News) -- With many Americans worried about their safety should a flu pandemic occur, there's little reassurance from a survey that finds that close to half of U.S. public health-care workers would not show up for work if such a pandemic occurred.

In fact, two-thirds of the 308 employees polled said their work would put them at risk of contracting the potentially deadly flu should an outbreak come to pass.

"Forty-two percent of the health care workers surveyed said they would not respond in the event of a flu pandemic," said study co-author Dr. Daniel J. Barnett, an instructor at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Public Health Preparedness in Baltimore.

"The most important factor, in terms of showing up for work, was how much the individual employee perceived his or her role [to be] in the agency's response," he added. The less important an employee thought his or her role was, the less likely they were to report for work, Barrett said.

Just 40 percent of the employees felt that they would be asked to show up should a pandemic become a reality.

In addition, only 33 percent thought they were knowledgeable about the health impact of pandemic flu, Barnett said.

The survey was conducted between March 2005-July 2005 and involved employees of three Maryland county health departments. The findings appear in the April issue of the journal BMC Public Health.

The willingness to report for work was lowest among technical and support staff, Barnett said. These include computer data entry staff, clerical workers and receptionists. "In many cases, these are some of the people who will be on the frontline interfacing with the public," he noted.

The implication of these findings is that more training of health care workers is needed. "We need to do a better job of training the public health workforce," Barnett said. "Not just in ability to respond, but in willingness to respond," he added.

"We need to focus on giving each worker a better sense of the pandemic scenario and the importance of his or her personal role in responding to it as a health department employee," Barnett said. "In addition, we need to give workers confidence that the agencies will give them adequate personal protective equipment."

Barnett assumes that these findings would be the same throughout the United States. "The health departments we surveyed are consistent with a vast majority of health departments in the country," he said.

The public should be concerned with these findings, Barnett said, since the system can't function during a pandemic if many of the key health care workers don't show up. "This is a wake-up call of preparedness training to address willingness to respond," he said.

One expert is not surprised by these findings.

"Reluctance to report to work in a variety of settings will probably be an issue during a pandemic," said Dr. John Treanor, a professor of medicine, microbiology and immunology at the University of Rochester, N.Y. "It makes sense that if someone does not believe that they play an important role in whatever organization they work for, they are less likely to brave risks and hardship to go to work."

Education will be an important component of pandemic planning, Treanor said. "I would be interested to know the extent to which this would be impacted if the employees believed that they would receive an effective preventative, whether that was a drug or vaccine or something else, that would reduce or eliminate their personal risk," he said.

Another expert doesn't think these findings can predict the actual response during an actual crisis.

"The findings are potentially misleading because anticipating one's response to a genuine crisis is difficult," said Dr. David L. Katz, an associate professor of public health and director of the Prevention Research Center at Yale University School of Medicine.

"Completing a survey about hypothetical scenarios evokes none of the emotional intensity of a true crisis," he said. "Stating you might resist the call to duty in the advent of such a crisis does not induce the conflict or cognitive dissonance of actually doing so," he said.

However, he said, the findings should not be ignored.

"The findings are worrisome, though, because they suggest that the legions of public health workers around the country do not feel sufficiently informed about the threat of pandemic avian flu to respond to its arrival with confidence," Katz said. "Health departments can and should develop clear and coordinated response plans, and raise the prevailing level of flu knowledge among staff.
0 likes   

User avatar
Cookiely
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3211
Age: 74
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 7:31 am
Location: Tampa, Florida

#30 Postby Cookiely » Wed May 03, 2006 9:19 pm

http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?sec ... icle=36928
Don't expect the Federal Government to come to your aide! Look at the article that I posted previously. Now they are saying they won't be giving Tamiflu to health care workers first but to those developing symptoms. You can bet more than 40% won't show up for work.
0 likes   

User avatar
TexasStooge
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 38127
Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
Contact:

#31 Postby TexasStooge » Tue May 09, 2006 6:43 am

Bird flu preparedness focus for Greater Dallas Chamber

By BRAD HAWKINS / WFAA ABC 8

DALLAS, Texas - The US Secretary of Health and Human Services said the first case of bird flu could reach the United States in a matter of months and the nation is under prepared for a pandemic.

Mike Leavitt said it is up to local communities to take the lead in dealing with outbreaks.

While downtown Dallas has the highest dense concentration of people in North Texas with 125,000 people during the business week, the Greater Dallas Chamber is leading a push to get member businesses onboard with being prepared for bird flu.

Every May, the thousand Dallas-based employees of PricewaterhouseCoopers order from a menu of health and welfare benefits, and this year the talk of health, vision and dental also included bird flu contingencies.

"You cannot be over prepared for something that is dealing with your people because people are the lifeblood of any business," said Mayor Laura Miller.

The bird flu talked encompassed just how devastating the bird flu could be not only to people physically, but also financially.

"Just imagine if 40 percent of your people are sick at any one time depending on your business," Mayor Miller said. "If you're in retail it could be devastating."

Traveling was also a big part of the discussion. The firm said they would shift many jobs to telecommuting if the bird flu threatened.

In the past, the SARS scare grounded airlines when people became afraid to travel and stores in Hong Kong emptied. The fear was so large, many people wouldn't even walk down the street without a mask to their mouth.

Coming in to work may be optional, but not for the essential people who generate and distribute electricity across North Texas.

Eight thousand people who work for TXU energy will get a flu prevention kit, which includes simple things such as tissues and hand sanitizer. The kit is part of a four phase plan to keep the power on.

A bird flu task force already has hygiene reminders up in bathrooms and kitchens.

Jim Dixon, with TXU, said they are seeking permanent changes to prevent such problems.

"Is there a way to communicate with people without shaking hands?" he said. "[There is] doing the elbow touch or the knuckle touch. Doing things like that. We're trying to get people to change their habits."

And while such precaution may never be needed, Mayor Miller said it is better than being under prepared.

"We hope that it's an all-bark, no bite Y2K thing," she said. "But if it's not this one it's something, and the pandemic wave comes through every 40 years so we're due for something."
0 likes   
Weather Enthusiast since 1991.
- Facebook
- Twitter

User avatar
TexasStooge
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 38127
Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
Contact:

#32 Postby TexasStooge » Tue May 09, 2006 12:01 pm

Dallas businesses brace for bird flu (Updated)

By BRAD HAWKINS / WFAA ABC 8

DALLAS, Texas - U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Mike Leavitt said the first case of bird flu could reach the United States in a matter of months, and the nation is under prepared for a pandemic.

Leavitt said it is up to local communities to take the lead in dealing with outbreaks.

Downtown Dallas has the highest concentration of people in North Texas—125,000 during the business week. The Greater Dallas Chamber is leading a push to get member businesses on board with preparations for bird flu.

Every May, the 1,000 Dallas-based employees of PricewaterhouseCoopers order from a menu of health and welfare benefits, and this year the talk of health, vision and dental also included bird flu contingencies.

"You cannot be over prepared for something that is dealing with your people because people are the lifeblood of any business," said Marybess Miller of PricewaterhouseCoopers.

The bird flu talked encompassed just how devastating the bird flu could be not only to people physically, but also financially.

"Just imagine if 40 percent of your people are sick at any one time depending on your business," Miller said. "If you're in retail, it could be devastating."

Traveling was also a big part of the discussion. The firm said they would shift many jobs to telecommuting if the bird flu threatened.

In the past, the SARS scare grounded airlines when people became afraid to travel and stores in Hong Kong emptied. The fear was so large, many people wouldn't even walk down the street without a mask over their mouth.

Coming in to work may be optional, but not for the essential people who generate and distribute electricity across North Texas.

Eight thousand people who work for TXU Energy will get a flu prevention kit, which includes simple things such as tissues and hand sanitizer. The kit is part of a four phase plan to keep the power on.

A bird flu task force already has hygiene reminders up in bathrooms and kitchens.

Jim Dixon, with TXU, said they are seeking permanent changes to prevent such problems.

"Is there a way to communicate with people without shaking hands?" he said. "[There is] doing the elbow touch or the knuckle touch. Doing things like that. We're trying to get people to change their habits."

And while such precaution may never be needed, Miller said it is better than being under prepared.

"We hope that it's an all-bark, no bite Y2K thing," she said. "But if it's not this one it's something, and the pandemic wave comes through every 40 years so we're due for something."
0 likes   
Weather Enthusiast since 1991.
- Facebook
- Twitter

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38099
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#33 Postby Brent » Tue May 09, 2006 7:59 pm

ABC is airing a movie on this right now(it's halfway through now). It's really good... it is sensationalist and is the worst case scenario, but it does have a lot of what really would happen in it.
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
LSU2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1711
Age: 57
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:01 pm
Location: Cut Off, Louisiana

#34 Postby LSU2001 » Tue May 09, 2006 9:37 pm

Brent do a little research and you will find that this is not a worst case scenario. It is basically taking the mortality rates from the 1918 pandemic and extrapolating the numbers to today's population. 1918 had a mortality rate of 2.5-5% with about 1.5 billion people on the planet. Today there are 6 billion so you do the math.
H5N1 is currently killing about 55% of the people who catch it. If you figure that 30% will catch it and of those that catch it 55% will die what would the worldwide numbers be then?

I do not think the movie was all that sensationalist because many of the events depicted have already happend to a point in 1918.

Tim

30% of 6 billion is 1.8 billion
5% of 1.8 billion is 90 million
However it is believe that the 1918 flu killed about 50 ot 100 million worldwide it had a higher death toll in some places than others
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
TexasStooge
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 38127
Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
Contact:

#35 Postby TexasStooge » Tue May 09, 2006 9:47 pm

Brent wrote:ABC is airing a movie on this right now(it's halfway through now). It's really good... it is sensationalist and is the worst case scenario, but it does have a lot of what really would happen in it.


Matter in fact, WFAA ABC 8 in Dallas has invited a roomfull of experts to watch the film and taking calls and e-mails from viewers on their 10:00PM CDT Newscast to determine which is fact and which is fictional.
0 likes   
Weather Enthusiast since 1991.
- Facebook
- Twitter

User avatar
Cookiely
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3211
Age: 74
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 7:31 am
Location: Tampa, Florida

#36 Postby Cookiely » Sat May 13, 2006 4:37 am

Five Fatal H5N1 Cases in Sumatra Raise Pandemic Concerns

Recombinomics Commentary
May 13, 2006

The fatal H5N1 bird flu infections of five family members in Karo in North Sumatra has raised pandemic concerns. 2-3 additional family members are hospitalized, but 12 other suspect patients are of even greater concern.

Media reports have provided no detail on these other 12 patients. The hospital is 170 km from the family residence, so it is unclear why there are 12 more suspect patients at the hospital in Medan. Least worrisome would be hospital quarantine due to exposure to the family. However, transporting these patients 170 km as a precaution suggests the local level; of concern is high. Media reports had described panic in the region, but the panic is more likely to be in Karo than Medan.

If the 12 are casual contacts or hospital contacts, than the cause for concern would be increased. The five fatalities have already set a record for H5N1 clusters and so far none of the family members have been discharged. Two fled from the hospital, but they have been returned to a private hospital and their current medical condition is not clear.

The family members most severely affected have died, and the spread in the dates of death suggests human-to-human transmission from the index case to the other family members. Although fertilizer may have contributed to the infection of the index case, infection of the other family members from the fertilizer seems unlikely, unless the other 12 suspect cases also are linked to the fertilizer, which originated in areas that are H5N1 positive.
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#37 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat May 13, 2006 4:39 am

If this is confirmed to be human to human it will get bad very very fast.
0 likes   

User avatar
Cookiely
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3211
Age: 74
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 7:31 am
Location: Tampa, Florida

#38 Postby Cookiely » Sat May 13, 2006 4:46 am

Indonesia: Family "infected" with bird flu

Thanks to the reader who sent this link to the Jakarta Post: Family "infected" with bird flu. This is serious bad news.

A family of five was admitted to Abdul Moeloek hospital in Bandurlampung on Sunday, all suffering from suspected bird flu.

The family -- Abidi, the husband and his wife Sarmawati, both 52, and three of their six children, Septi, 12, Fitri, 8 and Putra, 5 -- are now being treated in an isolation room. The five have all demonstrated a high fever and a cough, symptoms of the deadly bird flu.

Sarmawati has been treated at the hospital since last Thursday. Her other three children had been diagnosed with bird flu earlier. Mohtar Rozi, 15, died March 31, and Betharia, 19, died April 4, while Bakhrudin, 26, is still being treated at the hospital.

Both Mohtar and Betharia died at home before they could be sent to the hospital. Their parents had limited funds and knew little about the virus.

Laboratory tests on drug samples taken from the patients confirmed Bakhrudin, Septi, Fitri and Putra were infected with the bird flu virus, while Abidi and Sarmawati were negative, according to data from the Lampung health office.

Bandarlampung, I've just learned, is the capital of the province of Lampung, on the southern tip of Sumatra—across the strait from Java.

I don't recall reading anything about the two children said to have died on March 31 and April 4. Whether they died at home or in hospital, you'd think the Indonesian media would have reported their deaths.

If this really is H5N1, it's the worst single cluster since the Kocyigit family in eastern Turkey in the week after Christmas. The negative results for the parents are no comfort at all.

April 18, 2006 at 09:32 PM
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#39 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat May 13, 2006 4:51 am

Ok no more bird meat or anything out of America for me to eat... :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
Cookiely
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3211
Age: 74
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 7:31 am
Location: Tampa, Florida

#40 Postby Cookiely » Sat May 13, 2006 5:01 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Ok no more bird meat or anything out of America for me to eat... :eek:

I feel so sorry for all those people who depend on their poultry and pigs to survive, and having them slaughtered, but the alternative is worse.
0 likes   


Return to “Off Topic”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests