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TexasStooge
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#261 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Apr 29, 2006 10:41 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2006
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN/CNTRL FL...
...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO SW
TX...WITH ANOTHER UPPER STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THESE TWO
CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE MAIN SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER SRN NEB/NRN KS BY THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WRN AR/NRN LA/S TX BY LATE AFTN...WITH A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE
MIDWEST. MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN/CNTRL FL...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT/STRONG
WINDS/HIGH KBDI VALUES
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT TODAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND FL...ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY E/NELY FLOW WITHIN
EAST COAST RIDGE. GREATEST FIRE DANGER WILL BE ACROSS SRN/CNTRL
PORTIONS OF FL...WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 DEGREES.
ADDITIONALLY...SFC WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-25 MPH. LATEST OBSERVED
KBDI VALUES ARE IN THE 600-700 RANGE...INDICATIVE OF LONG TERM
DROUGHT.
..TAYLOR.. 04/29/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2006
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EWD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL FORM
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EWD INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WARM AND WINDY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO SE NM/W
TX...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON SUN
AFTN.
...SE NM/W TX...
MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES BELOW 15-20 PERCENT AS WINDS BECOME W/SWLY. ALTHOUGH SOME
AREAS HAVE RECEIVED WETTING RAINS OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS...MANY AREAS
IN FAR W TX AND PORTIONS OF SE NM DID NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY
PRECIPITATION. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE LOCATIONS AS WINDS STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY.
...FL...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN FL WILL RELAX
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...AND SFC WINDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN ON SATURDAY.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL STILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND ESPECIALLY THE WEST COAST OF FL ON SUNDAY.
..TAYLOR.. 04/29/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
- Category 5

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#262 Postby TexasStooge » Sun Apr 30, 2006 10:43 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0413 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2006
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM NOW ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE NWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY. IN THE EAST...A BLOCKING
PATTERN WILL SET UP WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER QUEBEC...AND AN
UPPER LOW DEEPENING EAST OF LONG ISLAND. AT LOWER LEVELS...SFC
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH INCREASING WLY
WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY. MODERATELY STRONG NELY FLOW ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS
TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MA/RI/CT. LOW RH VALUES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
FL...THOUGH SFC WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS AFTN.
...SRN NEW ENGLAND...
A DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH OBSERVED MINIMUM
RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT ON SATURDAY. RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
15-25 PERCENT TODAY AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST STRONG MIXING WILL OCCUR...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY
SFC WINDS IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE. PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST FEW
WEEKS HAS BEEN A FEW INCHES BELOW NORMAL...AND RECENT FIRE DANGER
CLASS OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HIGH/VERY HIGH VALUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SRN NH/VT/WRN MA. EXPECTED WIND/RH VALUES MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS AFTN.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SFC WINDS WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG...AND THIS WILL LIMIT CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE FEWER CLOUDS TODAY...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 80S/LOWER 90S. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL
BELOW 15 PERCENT...SO CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FOR LOCATIONS
WHICH HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH WETTING RAIN RECENTLY.
..TAYLOR.. 04/30/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0413 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2006
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD ACROSS NRN MN. REMNANTS OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH BROAD WLY FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN THIRD OF THE CONUS. AT THE
SFC...LEE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH LAPSE
RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP ACROSS ERN NM/W TX...WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK...AND SFC WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.
..TAYLOR.. 04/30/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
_______________________________________________________________________________
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DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0413 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2006
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...
Some good news there.
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TexasStooge
- Category 5

- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
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#263 Postby TexasStooge » Mon May 01, 2006 6:58 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0452 AM CDT MON MAY 01 2006
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MA/CT/RI/DE/ERN MD/NJ/SE PA/SE
NY...
...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN THE
NORTHEAST...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL NNE FLOW /45-50 KT/ FOCUSED FROM SRN
NH/MA/NJ DURING THE DAY. DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EAST WHICH HAS BEEN DOMINATED BY LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WHERE RH
VALUES WILL ALSO BE LOW.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MA/CT/RI/DE/ERN MD/NJ/SE PA/SE
NY...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 15-25 MPH/LOW RH VALUES BELOW 30
PERCENT/HIGH FIRE DANGER
LOW SFC DEWPOINTS AND MAX TEMPS CLIMBING FROM THE MID 50S THROUGH
LOWER 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOW HUMIDITY AGAIN TODAY /MIN RH VALUES
15-25 PERCENT/. IN ADDITION...MODERATELY STRONG NELY SFC WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY...RANGING FROM AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. RECENT 10 HR FUEL MOISTURE OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 3-8
PERCENT RANGE...WITH HIGH FIRE DANGER CLASS OBS AS WELL. CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND WINDY WEATHER.
..TAYLOR.. 05/01/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 AM CDT MON MAY 01 2006
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO WRN BC WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WRN
SASKATCHEWAN BY EARLY WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX /80-90 KT/. SFC CYCLOGENESIS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE SCALE HEIGHT
FALLS...WITH A LEE TROUGH AND DRYLINE DEVELOPING SWD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. IN ADDITION A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND NEB WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE FRONT. SFC WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR W TX.
...FAR W TX...
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WED AS A LEE TROUGH
BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED AND A FRONTAL ZONE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS. MINIMUM RH VALUES ACROSS SERN NM AND FAR W TX WILL
FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 90S.
..TAYLOR.. 05/01/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
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Contact:
#264 Postby TexasStooge » Tue May 02, 2006 7:00 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0418 AM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN WY...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN MT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WED. A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OF 75 TO 85 MPH
WILL SPREAD EWD TO THE S OF THE TROUGH ACROSS FAR SRN MT/NRN WY AND
INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE E OF THIS FEATURE...A
SURFACE LOW WILL OCCUR IN THE NRN PLAINS...WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT AND LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAINED ANCHORED OFF THE PACIFIC
NW COAST...WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THIS
AND THE NRN PLAINS LOW.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN WY...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DRYNESS
AN E-W AXIS OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH WILL EXIST ALONG THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES E INTO
THE NRN PLAINS AND LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO
SOLAR HEATING. SUSTAINED WLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY WARM /MAINLY IN THE 60S/...DEW
POINTS WILL BE LOW FROM AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MIN RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT. CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS WINDS DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED EWD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
...PORTIONS OF SERN NM AND FAR W TX...
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LEE TROUGH/DRY
LINE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH...EXCEPT IN LOCALIZED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLIMB INTO THE 90S...RH VALUES
WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT.
..GRAMS.. 05/02/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0418 AM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON EARLY
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE ITS EWD MOVEMENT REACHING THE NRN GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH SE INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY AND WILL TRAIL TO THE SW TO A SFC LOW NEAR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. OTHERWISE FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS.
...MOST OF CNTRL/SRN NM...
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 90S ALONG WITH AN ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR MASS...WILL LEAD TO CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES OF 8 TO 15
PERCENT. MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF NM ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
...MOST OF SRN NC...
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
WILL LEAD TO MODERATE NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH APPEAR LIKELY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S...MARGINALLY LOW RH VALUES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT SHOULD OCCUR.
..GRAMS.. 05/02/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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- Posts: 38127
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#265 Postby TexasStooge » Wed May 03, 2006 6:49 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0424 AM CDT WED MAY 03 2006
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EWD
REACHING THE NRN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MARCH SE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND WILL TRAIL TO THE SW TO A SFC
LOW NEAR NWRN TEXAS. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW WILL DIG SWD INTO CA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.
...NWRN AZ...
A DRY AIR MASS IN CONCERT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES /IN THE 70S TO
90S/...WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO FALL BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS VERSUS TUESDAY CAN BE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER CA. MOST AREAS
WILL LIKELY HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MID-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE
GRAND CANYON/CO RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE NRN PLATEAU THIS
AFTERNOON.
...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN NM...
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 90S ALONG WITH AN ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR MASS...WILL LEAD TO CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES OF 8 TO 15
PERCENT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL W/SW FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NM INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE. AS THE SHORTWAVE INDUCES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS NWRN TX...AN INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN NM
WILL OCCUR. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD APPROACH 20 MPH DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
..GRAMS.. 05/03/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0426 AM CDT WED MAY 03 2006
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN CA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD INTO
THE SWRN DESERTS. THIS TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN THE FLOW SLIGHTLY
ACROSS MOST OF AZ AND NM. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SERN CANADA. FAIRLY FLAT AND ZONAL
FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND SERN CONUS.
...CNTRL/SRN AZ INTO SWRN NM...
WARM TEMPERATURES...STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DRY AIR
MASS WILL PRODUCE CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ON THURSDAY. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S TO MID 90S...MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL
BETWEEN 8 TO 12 PERCENT. SWLY WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN CA APPROACHES. MODEL FORECASTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY. PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA MAY BE UPGRADED ON THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK IF A LONGER DURATION OR
FURTHER INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IS FORECAST.
..GRAMS.. 05/03/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
- Category 5

- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
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#266 Postby TexasStooge » Thu May 04, 2006 6:49 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0438 AM CDT THU MAY 04 2006
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN CA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD INTO
AZ BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST OF AZ AND NM. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NRN GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SERN CANADA. GENERALLY WEAK AND
ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN CONUS.
...NWRN AZ...
WARM TEMPERATURES...MODERATE WINDS AND CONTINUED LONG-TERM DRYNESS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SRN CA DRAWS CLOSER...MID-LEVEL WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 MPH. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS
INDICATE A WEAKENING TREND OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
SRN NV AND CONSEQUENTLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SUSTAINED SW WINDS OF APPROACHING 20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS ALSO INCREASED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY. WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AS
WELL...MIN RH VALUES SHOULD NOT BE AS LOW AS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S...RH VALUES SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 15
PERCENT.
...SERN AZ/SWRN NM...
WARM TEMPERATURES...STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DRY AIR
MASS WILL PRODUCE CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S...MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL BETWEEN 5 TO 10 PERCENT. SWLY
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SRN CA APPROACHES. MODEL FORECASTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
..GRAMS.. 05/04/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 AM CDT THU MAY 04 2006
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN AZ/FAR SRN NM/EXTREME FAR
W TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR AZ WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EWD
REACHING NM BY EARLY SATURDAY. A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL EJECT FROM
THE BASE OF TROUGH NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER. AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
AREA ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY MOVES EWD TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS FL.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - FAR SERN AZ/FAR SRN NM/EXTREME FAR
W TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
A ZONE OF ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
AIR MASS SHOULD PRODUCE CRITICAL CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL MOVE
ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER. AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SOME MIXING OF THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE CHIRICAHUA AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH APPEAR LIKELY WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AND POSSIBLE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES STILL APPEAR LIKELY
GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE. AS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY WARM INTO THE 80S...RH VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 PERCENT.
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL SUPPORT POOR RH RECOVERY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...INTERIOR FL PENINSULA...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...RH VALUES WILL
REMAIN CRITICALLY LOW...FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
E ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WSW WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW 20 MPH.
..GRAMS.. 05/04/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#267 Postby TexasStooge » Fri May 05, 2006 6:53 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0426 AM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN AZ/SWRN NM/EXTREME FAR W
TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SRN GREAT BASIN WILL SLIDE EWD REACHING
THE SRN ROCKIES BY EARLY SATURDAY. A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IN THE BASE
OF TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD AND CROSS THE SRN ROCKIES LATER TODAY. A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT FURTHER E ACROSS THE NE AND
MID-ATLANTIC. FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL MOVE E TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE SE.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - FAR SERN AZ/SWRN NM/EXTREME FAR W
TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY WINDS / VERY LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX...CURRENTLY IN VICINITY OF NRN BAJA CA...WILL
EJECT ACROSS SONORA TOWARDS THE SERN AZ/SRN NM/FAR W TX BORDER
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SOME MIXING OF THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE CHIRICAHUA AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS. SUSTAINED WSW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH APPEAR LIKELY WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. WITH AN ALREADY DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 5 TO 10 PERCENT...AS
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WARM INTO THE 80S. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH IN
THE EVENING WILL SUPPORT POOR RH RECOVERY...AND BECOME NWLY AFTER
PASSAGE OF A TROUGH.
...INTERIOR FL PENINSULA...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH BOTH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND RH EXPECTED.
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN CRITICALLY LOW...FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT. AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WSW WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH.
..GRAMS.. 05/05/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0427 AM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
AND HELP PRODUCE RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS NRN FL WITH CONTINUED W/SW FLOW ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. IN THE WEST...A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK RIDGING WILL BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SWD TOWARDS CA BY EARLY SUNDAY.
...INTERIOR CNTRL/SRN FL...
CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW...AHEAD OF A DIMINISHING COLD FRONT SAGGING
S INTO NRN FL...WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS THROUGH
SATURDAY. DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY ONLY MIX INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MIDDLE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCALIZED AREAS MAY STILL
EXPERIENCE A COMBINATION OF MARGINALLY LOW RH ALONG WITH MODEST WIND
SPEEDS. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...RH VALUES
SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 35 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW 20 MPH.
...COLUMBIA BASIN OF WA...
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG TOWARD CA...A BELT OF
STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...BOTH RH AND WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL VALUES...WITH MIN RH AROUND 25 TO 30 PERCENT AND SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH.
..GRAMS.. 05/05/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#268 Postby TexasStooge » Sun May 07, 2006 9:59 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FL PENINSULA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE SERN
STATES...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FL PENINSULA WHERE IT WILL REMAIN
HOT AND DRY. FARTHER W...ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE
NRN PLAINS SWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. WLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT FROM MT TO NM AND W TX WHERE MODERATELY WINDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER
THE DAKOTAS WITH MODERATELY LOW RH VALUES.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - FL PENINSULA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / HOT TEMPERATURES / DRY AND UNSTABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE / DROUGHT
...FL PENINSULA...
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY TODAY WITH VERY LOW RH IN THE FL
INTERIOR. HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP
VERTICAL MIXING TO LOWER RH LEVELS BELOW 30 PERCENT IN SPOTS. STRONG
HEATING WILL ALSO ALLOW MIXING LAYERS TO DEEPEN TO AROUND 7000-8000
FT AGL...MAKING FOR A VERY UNSTABLE SITUATION BY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO THE WARM AND DRY AIR MASS...SUSTAINED WLY WINDS OF 10-15
MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH.
...FAR SW TX / SRN NM...
A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER ERN NM INTO SWRN TX THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT COMING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES.
STRONG HEATING AND VERTICAL MIXING WILL ALLOW SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS
OF 15-20 MPH TO DEVELOP...WITH HIGHER SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH NEAR RIDGE
TOPS. MIN RH WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT.
...UPPER MS VALLEY...
SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH...WITH
SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH COMMON. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL ALLOW
RH LEVELS TO DROP TO 30-35 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF MN AND WI.
..JEWELL.. 05/07/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 AM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY SEWD OUT OF SWRN CANADA INTO THE
NRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH LOWERING
PRESSURE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND HIGHER WINDS AS A RESULT. AT THE
SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
INTO WRN KS AND SERN CO BY LATE MONDAY. STRONG WINDS BUT COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH RAIN/STORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT. MEANWHILE...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
AZ/NM/W TX...AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP GIVEN INCREASING
WLY WINDS.
TO THE SOUTH...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR RAIN
AND STORMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...SHIFTING EWD
ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIST. SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA.
...AZ / NM / W TX...
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...AS SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH/STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AFFECT
THE AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN NM AS WELL AS FAR SWRN TX...IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED LITTLE PRECIPITATION RECENTLY. COMBINATION OF WIND AND
RH / 20-25 MPH AND 10-15 PERCENT / WOULD NORMALLY YIELD CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS OF NM...BUT RECENT
PRECIPITATION WILL MITIGATE THREAT.
...NRN LOWER MI...
MARGINAL FIRE THREAT WILL EXIST MONDAY DUE TO DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MARGINAL SLY WINDS ALONG. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
10-15 MPH WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH MIN RH OF 25-30 PERCENT.
PORTIONS OF NRN LOWER MI HAVE RECEIVED LITTLE RAIN RECENTLY...THUS
AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT.
..JEWELL.. 05/07/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#269 Postby TexasStooge » Mon May 08, 2006 7:00 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 AM CDT MON MAY 08 2006
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AND SRN INTERIOR FL...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WHICH WILL
KEEP HUMIDITIES LOW OVER THE FL PENINSULA ALONG WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES. TO THE WEST...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...CAUSING A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO DEVELOP FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
WRN KS AND W TX. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS AZ/NM/W
TX...AND NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM NRN AZ INTO NM
AND SW TX DUE TO MARGINALLY STRONG WINDS. ELSEWHERE...LOW HUMIDITY
WILL EXIST OVER LOWER MI WITH SLY FLOW OUT OF NERN SURFACE HIGH FOR
A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT THERE.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN AND SRN INTERIOR FL...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / WARM TEMPERATURES / DROUGHT / LOCALLY
GUSTY W WIND
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ACROSS SRN FL...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AND RH LEVELS DROPPING INTO THE 30
PERCENT RANGE...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE COASTAL
AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS MAY INCREASE TO
AS MUCH AS 15 MPH IN SPOTS. GIVEN VERY HIGH KBDI VALUES OF 600-700
AND ONGOING FIRES...CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.
...NRN AZ / NM / SW TX...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DRIFT SWD.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER NRN AZ WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR
20 MPH...DECREASING TO 15-20 MPH OVER MOST OF NM AND W TX. WIND
GUSTS WILL BE HIGHER IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH. RH LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW
AT 10-15 PERCENT. LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY EXIST IN AREAS
THAT ARE NOT IN GREENUP.
...LOWER MI...
IT WILL BE A WARM AND DRY DAY WITH INCREASING SLY WINDS AROUND 15
MPH AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 70. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE LOW DUE TO WIND
TRAJECTORIES COMING OUT OF HIGH TO THE EAST...WITH 25-30 PERCENT
COMMON. RECENT LACK OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST TWO WEEKS COMBINED WITH
LOW RH AND MODERATE WINDS WILL MAY CAUSE CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP FOR A COUPLE HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING.
..JEWELL.. 05/08/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 AM CDT MON MAY 08 2006
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NM AND SWRN TX...FAR ERN
AZ...
...SYNOPSIS...
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY...EMERGING INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM MN INTO
MO SWWD ACROSS NRN OK AND INTO NERN NM BY TUE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF
THIS FRONT...A HOT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL EXIST OVER AZ/NM/TX...WITH
INCREASING WLY WINDS W OF SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BE OVER NW TX
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM IN FL WITH LOW RH VALUES...BUT
PERHAPS NOT AS LOW AS PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. LOW RH VALUES WILL EXIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN STATES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...BUT WITH MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MUCH OF NM AND SWRN TX...FAR ERN
AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE TUE WITH INCREASING WLY
WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE AREA
TO THE NORTH...AND WILL CAUSE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS LOW WILL BE VERY DRY WITH
MIN RH VALUES OF 10-15 PERCENT LIKELY. IN ADDITION...SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE LIKELY FROM
EXTREME ERN AZ ACROSS NM AND INTO WRN TX. THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED
IN AREAS JUST E OF CRITICAL ZONE...DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION AND
POSSIBLE GREENUP. HOWEVER...LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY EXTEND
FARTHER E THAN CURRENT OUTLOOK AREA.
...INTERIOR FL PENINSULA...
IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM TUESDAY SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
WILL EXTEND ACROSS NRN FL. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THIS BOUNDARY...AND DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY CAUSE
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA...MAINLY NRN
AND ERN PORTIONS. IN AREAS THAT REMAIN DRY...RH LEVELS WILL APPROACH
CRITICAL LEVELS BELOW 40 PERCENT AT PEAK HEATING WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.
DUE TO FORECAST WEAKER WIND SPEEDS AND POSSIBILITY OF RAIN...AREA
WILL NOT BE OUTLOOKED AS CRITICAL...ALTHOUGH SOME PORTION COULD BE
UPGRADED IF IT BECOMES APPARENT RH WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
..JEWELL.. 05/08/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#270 Postby TexasStooge » Tue May 09, 2006 7:35 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR ERN AZ / MUCH OF NM / WRN
TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO THE
UPPER/MID MS VALLEY BY WED MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A HEAT LOW
WILL FORM OVER TX WITH STRONG WLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW ACROSS NM AND
W TX. OVER THE NE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WHICH WILL KEEP RH
LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW WWD INTO LOWER MI.
OVER THE SERN STATES...RH LEVELS WILL RISE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
WITH A CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - FAR ERN AZ / MUCH OF NM / WRN
TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WLY WINDS / VERY LOW RH AND HOT
TEMPERATURES
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS SRN
EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH MOVES BY AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER TX.
STRONGER GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE EASILY ATTAINED OVER MUCH OF SRN
NM AND SWRN TX...WHERE IT WILL BE HOT. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
LOWER 100S INTO SWRN TX...WITH EXTREMELY LOW RH LEVELS OF 5-10
PERCENT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BUT PERSIST OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP RH
RECOVERY POOR.
...WEST CENTRAL TX...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND EWD INTO CENTRAL TX TODAY...WITH
HOT TEMPERATURES OF 95-100 AND RH OF 15-20 PERCENT DURING PEAK
HEATING. WINDS WILL BE A BIT LESS...NEAR 15 MPH. ALSO...RECENT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS AREA WILL TEND TO MITIGATE OVERALL FIRE
THREAT.
...NRN AND ERN LOWER MI...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL PROVIDE A DRY AIR MASS AND MODERATE
SLY WINDS NEAR 15 MPH. MIN RH LEVELS WILL BE MARGINALLY LOW MAINLY
IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. GIVEN RECENT LACK OF
PRECIPITATION...INCREASED FIRE THREAT REMAINS.
...CENTRAL AND SRN FL...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS LIKELY CENTRAL AND NRN AREAS. THE FAR SRN PENINSULA AND KEYS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...WITH MARGINALLY LOW RH AND WARM
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL DECREASE FIRE THREAT ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ANYWHERE RAIN DOES NOT FALL DUE TO DROUGHT.
..JEWELL.. 05/09/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER UPPER AND MIDDLE MS
VALLEYS...CAUSING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD EWD. AT THE
SURFACE...STRONG WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WITH DRY AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
NEAR TAIL END OF FRONT OVER NRN NM.
ELSEWHERE...IT WILL REMAIN WARM OVER SRN FL WITH LOWERING RH LEVELS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASED FIRE THREAT COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAY...ALTHOUGH STILL ELEVATED.
...NM AND FAR SW TX...
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WED AS A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE. ALTHOUGH UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DEPARTING...ENOUGH FLOW WILL
REMAIN FOR SUSTAINED 15 MPH WLY WINDS OVER NM INTO FAR SW TX. SOME
AREAS..ESPECIALLY OVER NRN NM...COULD SEE WINDS NEAR 20 MPH. RH
LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAY DUE TO COOLING
TEMPERATURES...BUT MIN VALUES WILL STILL BE LOW AT 10-15 PERCENT.
...CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS...
IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH NWLY WINDS OF
20-30 MPH. IT WILL BE COOL WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S AND
60S...BUT RH LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 25-35 PERCENT.
..JEWELL.. 05/09/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#271 Postby TexasStooge » Wed May 10, 2006 7:30 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL
EXIST...MAINLY FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM...A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES...AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...IN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL EXIST ALONG WITH HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...AND SOME LIMITED FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
...EASTERN AZ/MUCH OF NM...
BY MID AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN EASTERN ARIZONA AND
MOST OF NEW MEXICO WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AS A
HOT AND DRY AIRMASS DEVELOPS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S F TO THE LOWER 90S F AND WILL THEREFORE BE
FAIRLY WARM...HOWEVER...SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE VERY LOW...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA ONLY OBSERVING WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS.
WHILE THE REGION REMAINS IN A DROUGHT AND SURFACE FUELS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN DRY...THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WINDS WILL MINIMIZE THE
FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..LEVIT.. 05/10/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO MOST OF THE
UNITED STATES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING A RELATIVELY
CALM...DRY...AND SEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS OVER MOST OF THE REGION. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AREA...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE COUNTRY. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHEAST STATES. FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO...A DRY AND HOT AIRMASS WILL GENERATE SOME FIRE
WEATHER DANGER...BUT LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL HELP
KEEP THE THREAT TO A MINIMUM.
...SE AZ/SW NM...
THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THIS REGION IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE DAY
1 FORECAST...A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A BIT HIGHER THAN DAY 1...WITH SOME SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S F TO UPPER 90S. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS...BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS...LIKELY TO BE 5 TO 10 KTS AS IN DAY 1...WILL HELP SUSTAIN A
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..LEVIT.. 05/10/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#272 Postby TexasStooge » Thu May 11, 2006 6:38 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT THU MAY 11 2006
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THAT REGION...AND TO
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THIS
SYSTEM SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY FOCUS FOR THE PRECIPITATION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ADDITIONALLY...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S...BRINGING A
RELATIVELY MILD AND DRY AIRMASS TO THE REGION. IN THE
SOUTHWEST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM...AND WITH THE DRY AIR
IN PLACE...A SLIGHT FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL EXIST.
...AZ/NM...
AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN SOME REGIONS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S F AND 90S F...WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS INTO THE TEENS. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS
WILL AGAIN REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH VALUES APPROACHING 5 TO 10 KTS.
WHILE A DROUGHT PERSISTS IN THE AREA...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WIND
SPEEDS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO A MINIMUM.
..LEVIT.. 05/11/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 AM CDT THU MAY 11 2006
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RELATIVELY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...BRINGING SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN TO THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S...A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. DRY AIR WILL
MAINTAIN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
STATES...WITH WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...BUT LACK OF SUSTAINED
STRONG WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT AT
A MINIMUM.
...FL...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DIP BELOW THIRTY PERCENT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
BEHIND A EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SUSTAINED
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SOME REGIONS.
THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE A MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT...MAINLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
MINIMIZED AND AIR TEMPERATURES ARE MAXIMIZED.
..LEVIT.. 05/11/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#273 Postby TexasStooge » Fri May 12, 2006 6:57 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 AM CDT FRI MAY 12 2006
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ALL OF FLORIDA...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS IN THE PAST PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THAT REGION AND THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES...THROUGH FLORIDA...AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN FLORIDA...WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
BE MODERATELY STRONG...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. ELSEWHERE...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...BRINGING RELATIVELY DRY...WARM...AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER TO THAT REGION.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ALL OF FLORIDA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...MODERATE WIND
SPEEDS...CONTINUATION OF SHORT TERM DROUGHT
A FIRE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE STATE OF FLORIDA.
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT...WHILE MAINLY WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS WILL
APPROACH 15 TO 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
FLORIDA. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS AND THE CURRENT SHORT TERM DROUGHT
SITUATION DUE TO LACK OF RECENT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...THE REGION
WILL BE UNDER A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO RECOVER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...SO THE MAIN THREAT
WILL EXIST DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE LOWEST...AND WIND SPEEDS ARE MAXIMIZED.
ALSO OF NOTE...NEAR THE COASTLINE...LOCALIZED SEA BREEZE EFFECTS
WILL BRING SUDDEN SHIFTS IN WIND DIRECTION MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID CHANGES IN FIRE BEHAVIOR.
...CENTRAL TX...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH 20 KTS...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD...AS MODERATELY STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET...WHEN THE WINDS DECOUPLE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES QUICKLY RECOVER. THEREFORE...A FIRE WEATHER
THREAT WILL EXIST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
..LEVIT.. 05/12/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CDT FRI MAY 12 2006
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ALL OF FLORIDA...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES...A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY AND
PROVIDE THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL FORM IN
THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS...WHILE A NEW SURFACE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOME RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AS IT MOVES SOUTH
TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. FURTHER SOUTH INTO
FLORIDA...A FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL AGAIN EXIST DUE TO LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ALL OF FLORIDA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATELY STRONG AFTERNOON WIND
SPEEDS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT
THE FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
DAY 1 FORECAST. AGAIN...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK
AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SIMILAR
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ONE THAT IS RELATIVELY
DRY...AND GIVEN THE CONTINUED SHORT TERM DROUGHT IN THE REGION...A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST DUE TO THIS AIRMASS AND THE
MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE OBSERVED DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS IN THE PREVIOUS
DAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET...AS WELL AS DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS...HELPING TO MITIGATE
THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER. LOCALIZED SEA BREEZE CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST COULD...AGAIN...QUICKLY CHANGE FIRE BEHAVIOR.
..LEVIT.. 05/12/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#274 Postby TexasStooge » Sat May 13, 2006 12:43 pm
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL FLA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION
THROUGH TODAY. AT THE SURFACE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
EXIST OVER MOST OF THE SAME REGION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND FLA. OVER THE SRN PLAINS TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 80S-90S WITH MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-30 PERCENT SOUTH OF A
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 20 MPH / BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS/. OVER FLA...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL
BUT LOW RH READINGS WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST WINDS TO PRODUCE
CRITICAL/NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. OVER THE WEST...A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE WILL EXIST ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LIGHT WINDS
WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREATS IN THIS REGION.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NRN FLA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WLY WINDS FROM 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 25-35 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
RESIDE OVER FLA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN MODERATE OVER THE
AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THUS SUSTAINED
WLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
DEWPTS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW /IN THE 40S-50S/ AND COMBINED WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...MIN RH READINGS WILL AVERAGE FROM 25-35
PERCENT PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...SRN/CENTRAL FLA...
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SRN HALF OF THE
STATE...SUSTAINED WINDS IN THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN LOWER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS /5-10 MPH/. MIN RH READINGS WILL REMAIN LOW /25-35
PERCENT/ BUT WEAKER WINDS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.
...SWRN TX/SRN NM...
BEHIND A DRYLINE...WLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S-MID 100S. SEASONABLY LOW DEWPTS IN THE
TEENS/20S WILL RESULT IN MIN RH READINGS FROM 5-10 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 20 MPH /EXCEPT FOR GUSTS IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN/...PRECLUDING A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..CROSBIE.. 05/13/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN/CENTRAL FLA...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR FROM
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY DEEPENS SEWD...AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AND SERN STATES. SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT OVER NRN/CENTRAL FLA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE GRADUALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS WELL. THUS MIN RH
READINGS WILL AGAIN REACH CRITICAL LEVELS. FURTHER WEST...MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MOVING WWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS SUPPORTED BY
A COLD FRONT. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DRY TSTMS OVER
THIS REGION.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NRN/CENTRAL FLA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SWLY WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 25
MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 25-35 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15-20
MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS FIELDS
INCREASE AHEAD AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AND THUS MIN RH READINGS WILL REMAIN VERY
LOW /25-35 PERCENT/. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH READINGS AND MODERATE
WINDS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...SRN FLA...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FLA STRAIGHTS. MIN RH READINGS WILL AGAIN
BE LOW /25-35 PERCENT/ BUT SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
MPH WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...FOUR CORNERS...
LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MIXED/ADVECTED WWD TO THE WEST OF A
SFC FRONT THAT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS OF NM.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT SUPPORTED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC FORCING. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW DWPTS
WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY TSTMS. THE COVERAGE OF TSTMS IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..CROSBIE.. 05/13/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#275 Postby TexasStooge » Sun May 14, 2006 11:12 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL FLA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NATION TODAY
AS UPPER TROUGHING EXISTS OVER THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGING EXISTS
OVER THE WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN UPPER TROUGH...A SFC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND SERN STATES. NORTH
OF THIS FRONT...DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL EXIST AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY
AVERAGE LESS THAN 20 MPH PRECLUDING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTH
OF THIS FRONT OVER FLA...WARM TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
PARTS OF THE STATE. OVER THE WEST...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. ISOLATED-SCT CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS/GREAT BASIN AS LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES FROM SE-NW. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
WILL BE DRY...BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE A CRITICAL DRY THUNDERSTORM EVENT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL FLA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH...MIN RH
READINGS FROM 25-35 PERCENT.
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...SWLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER WRN PORTIONS
OF THE PENINSULA...BUT INTERIOR REGIONS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF
LOW RH READINGS FROM 25-35 PERCENT. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS/LOW RH
READINGS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO THE
AREA.
...FOUR CORNERS/GREAT BASIN...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH WWD
TRANSPORT AND MIXING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES INTO ERN NM DURING THE PERIOD. ALONG THE WRN EDGE
OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
CONSEQUENT HIGH CLOUD BASES WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH LACK OF A WELL FOCUSING MECHANISM...ONLY SCT DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED WHICH IS BELOW CRITERIA FOR A CRITICAL AREA. FURTHER
NW...ISOLATED DRY TSTMS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE GREAT BASIN AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER
OF AN THE UPPER RIDGE.
...INTERIOR SRN FLA...
ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RH READINGS /30-35 PERCENT/ WILL OCCUR TODAY
BEFORE MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TOMORROW. RELATIVELY
WEAK WINDS /5-10 MPH/ DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF AN AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..CROSBIE.. 05/14/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A VERY SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST TOMORROW AS UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS...AND UPPER RIDGING REMAINS
OVER THE WRN CONUS. OVER THE EAST...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH FLA...WITH MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. OVER THE WEST...LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND
GREAT BASIN SUPPORTED BY A WWD MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT IN NM. ON
THE WRN EDGE OF THIS INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ISOLATED-SCT
DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHERE VERY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES/LOW RH READINGS
EXIST. SCT TSTMS WILL BE LIKELY AS FAR NORTH AS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...BUT LOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY DRY IN THIS AREA
TO SUPPORT DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
...ERN/NRN AZ...
ISO-SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HRS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUPPORTED BY INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTED IN FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION/FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
WRN NM ON DAY ONE. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LOW RH READINGS
WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY TSTMS OVER THE AREA. THE OVERALL COVERAGE
OF DRY TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.
...MUCH OF NV/ERN UT...
DRY TSTMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH NWWD
DEVELOPMENT INTO NWRN/WRN NV. OVERALL THE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY LOW THAT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
..CROSBIE.. 05/14/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#276 Postby TexasStooge » Tue May 16, 2006 6:46 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CDT TUE MAY 16 2006
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER PATTERN WILL FEATURE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES
WITH A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST. MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY
WILL BE ISOLD DRY LIGHTNING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE WRN HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED TSTMS.
ELSEWHERE...DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL
CONUS WITH SEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SCNTRL/DEEP S TX.
...AZ/NM...
ISOLD TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED TSTMS WILL AGAIN FORM FROM THE WHITE
MTNS NWWD ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 0.5-0.75 INCHES...WITH
HIGHER VALUES ACROSS SRN AZ. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LITTLE WETTING
RAIN...WITH ISOLD DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR STORMS.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLD...SO A CRITICAL AREA WILL NOT BE
ISSUED.
..TAYLOR.. 05/16/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT TUE MAY 16 2006
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY.
RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD FROM NWRN ONTARIO WITH AN ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS MN AND THE
DAKOTAS...EXTENDING FROM NRN IL/NRN MO/ERN NEB BY EARLY EVENING.
LATE MORNING/AFTN TSTMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO PORTIONS OF AZ/NM.
..TAYLOR.. 05/16/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#277 Postby TexasStooge » Thu May 18, 2006 7:44 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 AM CDT THU MAY 18 2006
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE. SFC WINDS
WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG UNDER THE RIDGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NRN PLAINS WHERE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SEWD DURING THE
DAY. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS WHERE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG
COMBINED WITH LOW RH VALUES. FARTHER EAST...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DIVES SEWD
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/CAROLINAS.
...NRN PLAINS...
HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WHICH IS ABOUT
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S...MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE.
...FL...
WLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTS
SWD. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AFTER THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS THIS AFTN WHERE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL
FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT...MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS.
..TAYLOR.. 05/18/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0416 AM CDT THU MAY 18 2006
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN CA/CNTRL AND SRN NV/NW AZ...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY...AS IMPULSES
ASSOCIATED WITH ERN PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM START TO MOVE INLAND. MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 60 KT ACROSS CA AND OREGON BY
FRIDAY EVENING. SFC WINDS WILL LIKEWISE STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND SRN CA WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN CA/CNTRL AND SRN NV/NW AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 15-25 MPH/RH VALUES 15-20
PERCENT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 80S/90S ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN
TO LOWER 100S IN THE DESERTS ON FRIDAY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO
15-20 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG AND
OBSERVED FIRE DANGER CLASS VALUES HAVE BEEN IN THE HIGH OR VERY HIGH
RANGE RECENTLY. INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT
FALLS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF PCPN ACROSS THE SIERRA/CNTRL CA
INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN. FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THESE REGIONS WILL
BE MITIGATED DUE TO COOLER TEMPS AND EXPECTED PCPN.
..TAYLOR.. 05/18/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#278 Postby TexasStooge » Fri May 19, 2006 10:46 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0452 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN CA/SRN NV/NW AZ...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW ACROSS THE WRN CONUS CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY IN
RESPONSE TO ERN PACIFIC TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT INITIAL JET STREAK
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL CA AND OREGON TODAY WITH
MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY COMBINED
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CA/NV/AZ TODAY. IN ADDITION...SFC WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INVOF LEE TROUGH.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN CA/SRN NV/NW AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SW WINDS/RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT/DRY
FUELS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME VERY DEEPLY
MIXED TODAY ACROSS SERN CA/SRN NV WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE 90S/100S AS MINIMUM RH VALUES FALL BELOW 10-15 PERCENT. RECENT
FIRE DANGER CLASS OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGH/VERY HIGH
VALUES.
...PORTIONS OF UT/CO...
VERY HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. MID LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT.
...SW INTO SCNTRL TX...
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 WITH
DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 20S/30S. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES
BELOW 10-15 PERCENT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...BUT A
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..TAYLOR.. 05/19/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN AND CNTRL NV/UT/NW AZ...
...SYNOPSIS...
WRN RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD ON SATURDAY WHILE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WITH WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS UT IN ADVANCE OF WEST COAST STORM SYSTEM. AT THE
SFC...LEE TROUGH WILL FORM ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS OK THROUGH NRN MS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN AND CNTRL NV/UT/NW AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG S/SW WINDS/LOW RH VALUES BELOW 15
PERCENT/DRY FUELS
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW AZ/SRN NV AND UT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO BE MIXED TO THE
SFC. IN ADDITION RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT ARE LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL AREA WITH TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS IN EXCESS
OF 50-60 DEGREES.
...SW TX...
SFC WINDS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN FRIDAY...WITH
CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL NOT
HAVE RECOVERED AS RETURN FLOW FROM GULF IS MODIFIED CP IN ORIGIN.
THEREFORE...MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AND INCREASED WIND.
..TAYLOR.. 05/19/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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#279 Postby TexasStooge » Tue May 23, 2006 7:00 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0417 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN PLAINS OF NM INTO PORTIONS OF
FAR NW TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN WY/CO WILL SLOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NNE FROM SERN MT
INTO SERN MANITOBA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COOL FRONT/DRY LINE WILL
TRAIL SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. IN THE NORTHEAST...CONTINUED NW
FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR OVER MOST OF THE
SWRN AND SERN CONUS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN PLAINS OF NM INTO PORTIONS OF
FAR NW TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY LOW RH / MODERATE WINDS / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRY LINE MIXES EWD TOWARDS INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO LOWER 100S AND DEW POINTS
MAINLY IN THE 20S...WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 5 TO 10
PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MARGINAL TODAY...AS THE STRONGEST MID
AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR FURTHER NORTH IN VICINITY OF THE NRN
PLAINS LOW. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS MAY OCCUR IN
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS AS MID-LEVEL SUPPORT AND STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NEVERTHELESS...STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW WLY
WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD OF LOWEST
RH. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME NLY AFTER A
COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
...FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR OF N-CNTRL CO...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY COMBINE WITH
MARGINALLY LOW RH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER..OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIKELY WETTED FUELS IN MOST LOCATIONS. A
LOCALIZED CRITICAL THREAT MAY EXIST IN AREAS WHICH DID NOT RECEIVE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS NE OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...DOWNSLOPE WLY FLOW WILL BE INDUCED. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40
MPH SHOULD OCCUR...UNDER A 35 TO 50 MPH MID-LEVEL JET. RH VALUES
WILL DROP RAPIDLY...AND SHOULD APPROACH 15 TO 20 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE FOOTHILLS.
..GRAMS.. 05/23/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0443 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW IN THE DAKOTAS ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL
DRIFT EWD INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE TO STRONG MID-FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE WRN AND ERN THIRDS OF THE NATION WILL ALLOW WEAK FLOW TO
PREVAIL IN THE SWRN AND SERN CONUS.
...SERN MT/NERN WY/WRN SD...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
RAINFALL EFFECTS ON FUELS FROM SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY
PRECLUDES AN ISSUANCE ATTM. LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE THE LIKELY SCENARIO WITH AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL.
IN BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW IN MN AND A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CNTRL
ROCKIES...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST. IN
ADDITION...BOTH LOW AND MID-LEVEL JETS WILL BE FAVORABLY ALIGNED
FROM THE NW TO THE W OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN MN. DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WILL ALLOW MIXING OF THESE JETS TOWARDS THE
SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
APPEAR LIKELY WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW
HELPS BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S TO 80S...RH VALUES WILL
LIKELY REACH 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
..GRAMS.. 05/23/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Code: Select all
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006
VALID 251200Z - 311200Z
...DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR A CRITICAL EVENT OVER THE SWRN CONUS LATER
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT AND
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AT THE
BEGINNING OF DAY 3 IS FORECAST TO LIFT EWD...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN ITS WAKE. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CONUS AND
WOULD SPREAD STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...WITH SATURDAY
CONTINUING TO APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF ANY GIVEN DAY.
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THERE
IS MORE MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT OF THE
TROUGH IN THE DAY 7-8 TIME FRAME.
..GRAMS.. 05/23/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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TexasStooge
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- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
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#280 Postby TexasStooge » Wed May 24, 2006 7:10 am
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT WED MAY 24 2006
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND WRN NEBRASKA...FAR
SERN WY AND SWRN SD...
...SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FROM SRN CA INTO W TX
UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGE...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. ALONG NRN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL
COMBINE WITH SURFACE LOW TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO
PRODUCE VERY STRONG NWLY WINDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOW RH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE WINDS FROM ERN MT INTO NEBRASKA. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL
BE WARM AND DRY ACROSS INTERIOR FL BUT WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE KEEP RH LEVELS LOW OVER MUCH OF
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CENTRAL AND WRN NEBRASKA...FAR SERN
WY AND SWRN SD...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / WARM TEMPERATURES
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE EWD OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO MN DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THIS LOW...AND WILL CAUSE VERY STRONG WINDS TO OCCUR.
SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...WITH GUSTS OF
30-50 MPH ACROSS NRN NEBRASKA INTO SD. RH LEVELS WILL DROP AS DEEP
MIXING OCCURS...WITH VALUES INTO THE TEENS DURING PEAK HEATING.
ALTHOUGH SOME GREENUP IS OCCURRING...CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL STILL
MATERIALIZE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE FINE FUEL LOADINGS ARE
HEAVIEST.
...ERN MT INTO WRN DAKOTAS / ERN NEB...
WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG OUT OF THE NW AT OVER 30 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ALTHOUGH RH LEVELS WILL NOT BE AS LOW AS FARTHER SW WITH
25-35 PERCENT TYPICAL. IN ADDITION...RAIN WAS FALLING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AS OF EARLY MORNING...THUS THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED DUE TO
ADDED MOISTURE.
..JEWELL.. 05/24/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0423 AM CDT WED MAY 24 2006
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A VERY HOT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND
FOUR CORNERS STATES UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. PRESENCE OF WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS FOR A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
FARTHER NE...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND SRN CO.
...MUCH OF AZ AND NM...SRN CO AND UT...
FIRE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
PERSISTENT HOT AND DRY WEATHER...AS WELL AS INCREASING INSTABILITY.
HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR MASS WILL CAUSE A HIGH HAINES IN MANY
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY...WHEN RH LEVELS WILL BE LOWEST AND IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. IN ADDITION...A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL HELP WEAKEN THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE A BIT...AND
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT. THESE WINDS WILL MIX EASILY
TO THE SURFACE...AVERAGING 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VERY HOT AND
DRY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY FUELS WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR FIRE STARTS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GIVEN
HIGH HAINES...VERY LOW RH...AND VERY DRY FUELS...DEGREE OF FIRE
THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WIND FORECAST.
...SRN CO INTO NRN NM...
AT LEAST ISOLATED DRY THUNDER IS LIKELY LATE THU WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. GENERAL SLY FLOW REGIME WILL
CAUSE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE AS WELL AS OVER
CENTRAL CO MTNS. DEVELOPMENT MAY EXTEND SWD INTO FAR NRN NM AS
WELL...IF ENOUGH MOISTURE EXISTS. HIGHEST THREAT OF FIRE STARTS WILL
BE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE OF CO AND POINTS SOUTH WHERE FUELS
ARE DRIEST. FORECAST COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING IS TOO LOW FOR A CRITICAL
DRY THUNDER AREA AT THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXACT AREA AND
STORM CONCENTRATION WILL BE MUCH HIGHER IN NEXT DAY 1 FORECAST.
...CNTRL NEB...
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MO VALLEY BEHIND UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
WILL STILL BE LIKELY...ALTHOUGH RH LEVELS WILL PROBABLY NOT DIP
BELOW 20-25 PERCENT AT PEAK HEATING. THIS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
PRECIPITATION...WILL HELP MITIGATE FIRE THREAT.
..JEWELL.. 05/24/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Code: Select all
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CDT WED MAY 24 2006
VALID 261200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL BREAK DOWN FROM THE
WEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. A VERY
WARM AND DRY AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN GREAT
BASIN...DESERT SW AND WRN TX...THEREFORE CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AS WIND FIELDS WITH TROUGH STRENGTHEN. ONE AREA WILL INCLUDE
MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AS WELL AS NRN AZ ON 5/26...AND ANOTHER AREA
ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WEST OF THE DRYLINE THE SAME DAY. THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND
VERY LOW RH THROUGH 5/28.
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND RH...AT LEAST ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NRN NM AND SRN CO.
..JEWELL.. 05/24/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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