EPAC Low

[CHRISTY]

Guys this clearly seems to be a possible T.D. in the Makeings.Here's a couple of animated images!

[Coredesat]

The models don't do a whole lot with this. Most of them seem to keep it stationary or move it slightly to the east without any significant deepening.

TWD:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAY 13 2006

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.

NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM OF 8N94W ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 9N96W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER 1007 MB WAS NEAR 9N96W MOVING SLOWLY WWD.
QUIKSCAT SHOWS WINDS TO 25 KT WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER. THERE
APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 24 HRS
MAINLY E OF THE CENTER. THE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM
HAS BECOME BETTER DURING THE NIGHT.

[Ivan14]

It sure does look like it has a good chance to become a TD.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm not sure about the T.D part it looks like there is no circulation to it. But this sure does deserve a Invest in my opinion.

[HURAKAN]

NO FURTHER ORGANIZATION HAS OCURRED SINCE LAST NIGHT. AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED.

[HurricaneHunter914]

It went *POOF*.

[HURAKAN]

Could anyone make it smaller?

I will truly appreciate that. I need to learn how to do it.

Thanks,

Sandy.

[Ivanhater]

I dont know, the weather channel is showing interest in it as well

[GeneratorPower]

E OF 110W...
MAIN FEATURE IS A DISORGANIZED AREA OF 1006 MB LOW PRES CENTERED
ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 9N97W MOVING SLOWLY W 5-10 KT. THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION IS ILL-DEFINED AND STILL ELONGATED AT THE
MOMENT...AND CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND SINCE THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LIE MAINLY E OF THE
CENTER FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 91W-95W ALTHOUGH NEW TSTM CELLS ARE
NOW DEVELOPING UP TO 180 NM NW OF THE PRESUMED CENTER. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS FAVORABLE OVER THE SYSTEM WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS BEFORE MID-LATITUDE FLOW BEGINS TO AFFECT
IT.

[Scorpion]

Lets hope!

[HurricaneHunter914]

The EPAC is trying to get a head start.

[SouthFloridawx]

00
AXPZ20 KNHC 131535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAY 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 11N90W 9N97W 8N110W 10N126W
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 6N83W
9N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 100W-106W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
110W-127W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES W OF THE AREA
FROM ALASKA TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WITH BROAD SWLY FLOW IN
THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 120W. WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE/CIRRUS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW AND EXTENDS NW OF A
LINE FROM 12N130W TO THE CNTRL BAJA PENINSULA. AN EQUALLY AS
LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED DOWNSTREAM ALONG 113W EXTENDING N
ACROSS NW MEXICO AND ARIZONA...WITH A LARGE AREA OF
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 12N-26N BETWEEN THE COAST OF
MEXICO AND 125W. FARTHER S IN THE DEEP TROPICS...WLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CROSS 140W THEN TURNS SE/SWD E OF 135W. NLY FLOW EMANATES
FROM NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS MOVING SWD TO THE EQUATOR WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 110W-128W.

E OF 110W...
MAIN FEATURE IS A DISORGANIZED AREA OF 1006 MB LOW PRES CENTERED
ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 9N97W MOVING SLOWLY W 5-10 KT. THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION IS ILL-DEFINED AND STILL ELONGATED AT THE
MOMENT...AND CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND SINCE THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LIE MAINLY E OF THE
CENTER FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 91W-95W ALTHOUGH NEW TSTM CELLS ARE
NOW DEVELOPING UP TO 180 NM NW OF THE PRESUMED CENTER. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS FAVORABLE OVER THE SYSTEM WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS BEFORE MID-LATITUDE FLOW BEGINS TO AFFECT
IT.

COAST OF MEXICO...
A SMOKE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM NUMEROUS FIRES ALONG THE W COAST
OF MEXICO HAS DRIFTED WWD OVER THE PACIFIC...GENERALLY FROM
16N-21N E OF 110W. LOWERED VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE SMOKE AND
HAZE ARE BEING REPORTED IN ACAPULCO (7 MILES)...IXTAPA/
ZIHUATANEJO (5 MILES)...MANZANILLO (4 MILES)...AND PUERTO
VALLARTA (6 MILES).

$$
BERG

[HurricaneHunter914]

I hope it doesn't form so the Atlantic can take the title for most named storms.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Funny though how the NHC say it is dis-organized and ill-defined yet in two days it could become a T.C.

[mike815]

lol yeah it is kinda funny i think it has a good shot at becoming a storm

[HurricaneHunter914]

Whoa Mike I thought you were at SeaWorld.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think its dead. RIP little low. Don't expect nothing for the next 15 days west of 180 west.

[CHRISTY]

Yea guys it really hasn't got any better organized since las night!

[Coredesat]

[Ivan14]

It looks dead. It just went POOF and I now take back what I said about it becoming a TD.