Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

[cheezyWXguy]

its eye looks pretty big and its starting to get surrounded by reds on that pic

[senorpepr]

its eye looks pretty big and its starting to get surrounded by reds on that pic

Mind you that isn't a normal infrared image I posted. That is 85 GHz data off of the DMSP satellite.

Here's a more traditional image of Chanchu

[cheezyWXguy]

ya...it didnt look like a normal image...I didnt really think it was...but it still looks like its got the northern half of a large, disorganized eye on the link u posted, senorpeper...also it looks like its trying to condense some kind of CDO...lots of yellow

[JonathanBelles]

looks somewhat lopsided to me

[JonathanBelles]

looking at this: http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp0206.gif
why is it taking that sharp turn to the north?

[wxmann_91]

Once again, haven't looked at the models yet, but I think this could rapidly intensify the next 48 hours. Anticyclone over system, and trough coming could enhance poleward outflow. Afterwards, the system should steadily weaken as it encounters strong shear and dry air entrainment from mainland China.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think this thing is getting ready to pull a katrina,Rita durning the next 24 hours. The cloud tops have gotten much colder like Rita did when it moved south of the keys.

[HURAKAN]

POWERFULL CLOUDTOPS.

[JonathanBelles]

how cold are those cloud tops

[senorpepr]

I think this thing is getting ready to pull a katrina,Rita durning the next 24 hours. The cloud tops have gotten much colder like Rita did when it moved south of the keys.

Personally, I think that is a great overstatement. First, this is a category one typhoon. To compare a somewhat disorganized category one typhoon to Katrina and/or Rita is a stretch, in my opinion. Furthermore, the likelihood of this bottoming out and going near or sub-900mb like Katrina and Rita is unlikely due to land and dry air from China. Also, the chances of a powerful landfall are reduced because Chanchu should begin extratropical transition as it approaches Hong Kong. I see this more as a precipitation threat than a wind threat for China.

[senorpepr]

how cold are those cloud tops

Around -82°C.

[cheezyWXguy]

holy crap! thats cold!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

For one the upper levels are faverable with warm sst's. Also outflow and a growing size of the cdo I'v found is a sign of some real strengthing. Will it become as strong as Katrina or Rita maybe not...But I use it for anything that go through a growing of the cdo and could very well strengthen. I say it gets up to mid level cat3 by 24 to 30 hours.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow!!!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

[HurricaneHunter914]

Chanchu is strengthening. A Katrina #2 could be in the future and by that I mean damage. If Chanchu hits Hong Kong as a major hurricane she might be a very costly storm just like Katrina.And like Katrina, Chanchu might hit a major city.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Hong kong is 100 times the size of new orleans. So yes this could very well be big.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Alot of models forecast Chanchu to hit as a major too. So yeah a major catastrophe could be near.

[wxmann_91]

You do realize the shelf just of Hong Kong's coast is different from the shelf off the MGC? (If I wrong, please inform me, but I do believe there is a pretty big dropoff along much of the China coast.)

[HurricaneHunter914]

Does that mean Chanchu will maintain its strength before landfall?

[wxmann_91]

Does that mean Chanchu will maintain its strength before landfall?

No, since there will be other negative factors, but it will mean it will not have a huge storm surge. As with most WPAC typhoons making landfall, the biggest threat is flooding rains well inland, especially as the typhoon interacts with the trough (ala Floyd). Some of the biggest disasters besides quakes in that region have resulted from floods.