NOAA'S May update of ENSO=Neutral next 3-6 months

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Would be good news for the Gulf if we had a season something like this once again. We will see though.

[Jim Hughes]

Wow I can't believe that no replies haved occured to this important news.

You guys here at Storm2K keep us all so well-informed, that we knew it before NOAA did.

Knew before NOAA did??? That's an amusing statement to say the least...

I am not to sure why you think it's amusing that anyone could out forecast NOAA or beat them to the punch about a developing ENSO trend.

They are very conservative and their forecasting record is pretty bad in my opinion. One could argue about someone's methodology but that's not the point in regards to whether someone ends up being wrong or right.


Jim

[Audrey2Katrina]

Well IF 1996 was a neutral year, then that graphic suggests anything but the Eastern Seaboard being out of the woods, or that it's necessarily going to be a GOM year.

Still hoping for a lot of fish!

A2K

[Extremeweatherguy]

If you looked at the Gulf SSTs, you would know that a year like 1996 looks nearly impossible at this point.

[Audrey2Katrina]

If you looked at the Gulf SSTs, you would know that a year like 1996 looks nearly impossible at this point.

Spoil Sport!

A2K

[MGC]

I'd take a season like 1996 here on the gulf coast. As long as there are few TC to traverse the apparently very warm GOM it won't matter how hot the GOM gets. Right now it is nothing more that conjecture on where the landfalls, if any, will occur........MGC

[benny]

Wow I can't believe that no replies haved occured to this important news.

You guys here at Storm2K keep us all so well-informed, that we knew it before NOAA did.

Knew before NOAA did??? That's an amusing statement to say the least...

I am not to sure why you think it's amusing that anyone could out forecast NOAA or beat them to the punch about a developing ENSO trend.

They are very conservative and their forecasting record is pretty bad in my opinion. One could argue about someone's methodology but that's not the point in regards to whether someone ends up being wrong or right.

Jim

There are a lot of things you can get away with on a BB such as this one that you can't get away with if you are the Climate Prediction Center. Official agencies just can't go with the latest trend of a week or so and declare La Nina is dead or something like that. No flip-flopping is allowed in that case! Reading the weekly update is a good idea to get into what CPC is thinking about ENSO for a given week.. not just the monthly larger updates. I just found the comment amusing to think that the storm2k board is in some sense more all-knowing than NOAA... heh heh.

[Jim Hughes]

Wow I can't believe that no replies haved occured to this important news.

You guys here at Storm2K keep us all so well-informed, that we knew it before NOAA did.

Knew before NOAA did??? That's an amusing statement to say the least...

I am not to sure why you think it's amusing that anyone could out forecast NOAA or beat them to the punch about a developing ENSO trend.

They are very conservative and their forecasting record is pretty bad in my opinion. One could argue about someone's methodology but that's not the point in regards to whether someone ends up being wrong or right.

Jim

There are a lot of things you can get away with on a BB such as this one that you can't get away with if you are the Climate Prediction Center. Official agencies just can't go with the latest trend of a week or so and declare La Nina is dead or something like that. No flip-flopping is allowed in that case! Reading the weekly update is a good idea to get into what CPC is thinking about ENSO for a given week.. not just the monthly larger updates. I just found the comment amusing to think that the storm2k board is in some sense more all-knowing than NOAA... heh heh.

I agree with your BB comment but that is not the point here. I was referring to how they usually never feel confident enough to forecast one well out in advance. Especially in the early days.

I forecast back in March 1997 (My first ENSO forecast) that an El Nino was developing and that it's intensity level would end up equaling or exceeding the 82-83 event. NOAA ended up coming out a month or two later with a public statement about an El Nino forming. There is a difference here besides the time frame. It's the outlook.

And BTW. This forecast was not given out over the BB. This was given to local OCM's and news contacts from both the print and TV industry, science writers etc.. So I officially went on record with my forecast. This is how I do it. No flip flops here Benny.


Jim

[benny]

Wow I can't believe that no replies haved occured to this important news.

You guys here at Storm2K keep us all so well-informed, that we knew it before NOAA did.

Knew before NOAA did??? That's an amusing statement to say the least...

I am not to sure why you think it's amusing that anyone could out forecast NOAA or beat them to the punch about a developing ENSO trend.

They are very conservative and their forecasting record is pretty bad in my opinion. One could argue about someone's methodology but that's not the point in regards to whether someone ends up being wrong or right.

Jim

There are a lot of things you can get away with on a BB such as this one that you can't get away with if you are the Climate Prediction Center. Official agencies just can't go with the latest trend of a week or so and declare La Nina is dead or something like that. No flip-flopping is allowed in that case! Reading the weekly update is a good idea to get into what CPC is thinking about ENSO for a given week.. not just the monthly larger updates. I just found the comment amusing to think that the storm2k board is in some sense more all-knowing than NOAA... heh heh.

I agree with your BB comment but that is not the point here. I was referring to how they usually never feel confident enough to forecast one well out in advance. Especially in the early days.

I forecast back in March 1997 (My first ENSO forecast) that an El Nino was developing and that it's intensity level would end up equaling or exceeding the 82-83 event. NOAA ended up coming out a month or two later with a public statement about an El Nino forming. There is a difference here besides the time frame. It's the outlook.

And BTW. This forecast was not given out over the BB. This was given to local OCM's and news contacts from both the print and TV industry, science writers etc.. So I officially went on record with my forecast. This is how I do it. No flip flops here Benny.

Jim

The business of ENSO forecasting is a pretty new one and there have been some marked struggles in the past 10 years. NOAA has had its problems for sure (as has IRI and other fcst groups)... but until there is some sort of deeper understanding and modelling capability of the air/sea interactions that are critical.. any forecaster is really struggling with the specifics. I am thinking we are a year or so away from a significant El Nino (maybe).. and it will be interesting to see if the models can handle it. Basically the lot of them have a hard time being the climo persistence model. I wonder if it is time to have a forecasting forum on ENSO.. maybe predict Nino 3.4 SSTs for a year by a bunch of different groups/techniques and try to see what works...

[Jim Hughes]

The business of ENSO forecasting is a pretty new one and there have been some marked struggles in the past 10 years. NOAA has had its problems for sure (as has IRI and other fcst groups)... but until there is some sort of deeper understanding and modelling capability of the air/sea interactions that are critical.. any forecaster is really struggling with the specifics. I am thinking we are a year or so away from a significant El Nino (maybe).. and it will be interesting to see if the models can handle it. Basically the lot of them have a hard time being the climo persistence model. I wonder if it is time to have a forecasting forum on ENSO.. maybe predict Nino 3.4 SSTs for a year by a bunch of different groups/techniques and try to see what works...

I think we will be seeing clear signs that a developing El Nino is underway by years end. I believe some increased space weather is ahead for early November. This should give it the right push in my humble opinion.

As far as the ENSO forecasters. The Australians have always impressed me. They tend to think outside the box. They also look at how the atmosphere is behaving. Indicator wise. NOAA seems obsessed with SST's when it comes to forecasting climate relationships with the ENSO.

Have you read about the EPI ? I gave this URL out over at EasternWx a couple of weeks back to a college kid who's real sharp. The kid's a hungry researcher. He's always looking to gain an edge when it comes to long term forecasting the teleconnection phases. Chuck also posts over here occasionally but I forget his handle.

http://www.austweather.com.au/elnino.html


Jim

[benny]

The business of ENSO forecasting is a pretty new one and there have been some marked struggles in the past 10 years. NOAA has had its problems for sure (as has IRI and other fcst groups)... but until there is some sort of deeper understanding and modelling capability of the air/sea interactions that are critical.. any forecaster is really struggling with the specifics. I am thinking we are a year or so away from a significant El Nino (maybe).. and it will be interesting to see if the models can handle it. Basically the lot of them have a hard time being the climo persistence model. I wonder if it is time to have a forecasting forum on ENSO.. maybe predict Nino 3.4 SSTs for a year by a bunch of different groups/techniques and try to see what works...

I think we will be seeing clear signs that a developing El Nino is underway by years end. I believe some increased space weather is ahead for early November. This should give it the right push in my humble opinion.

As far as the ENSO forecasters. The Australians have always impressed me. They tend to think outside the box. They also look at how the atmosphere is behaving. Indicator wise. NOAA seems obsessed with SST's when it comes to forecasting climate relationships with the ENSO.

Have you read about the EPI ? I gave this URL out over at EasternWx a couple of weeks back to a college kid who's real sharp. The kid's a hungry researcher. He's always looking to gain an edge when it comes to long term forecasting the teleconnection phases. Chuck also posts over here occasionally but I forget his handle.

http://www.austweather.com.au/elnino.html


Jim

I have heard about the EPI from that very study but nothing since. It isn't publicized really. How did it handle the 2002 El Nino and the other events? I can't seem to find anything with a quick search.

[Jim Hughes]

I do not think it was around back then but I might be mistaken. I believe the research into this might be younger. The EPI seems similar to the NOI teleconnection somewhat.

I just checked out the URL I gave you and the site seems to be having trouble so I have no idea if you accessed it. I know it worked when I first posted it because I tried it.


Jim

[benny]

I do not think it was around back then but I might be mistaken. I believe the research into this might be younger. The EPI seems similar to the NOI teleconnection somewhat.

I just checked out the URL I gave you and the site seems to be having trouble so I have no idea if you accessed it. I know it worked when I first posted it because I tried it.


Jim

Actually it worked then... maybe they are having problems. So you think we will have a repeat of the 04-05 Nino or something different? Will it try to happen this fall or wait until next year? If it did wait it would be more potent I think...

[Jim Hughes]

I do not think it was around back then but I might be mistaken. I believe the research into this might be younger. The EPI seems similar to the NOI teleconnection somewhat.

I just checked out the URL I gave you and the site seems to be having trouble so I have no idea if you accessed it. I know it worked when I first posted it because I tried it.


Jim

Actually it worked then... maybe they are having problems. So you think we will have a repeat of the 04-05 Nino or something different? Will it try to happen this fall or wait until next year? If it did wait it would be more potent I think...

I think it will definitely be stronger than that one. I still need to look over things a little better but I would think that the overall positive SOI pattern (30 day average) that has been around for most of this year will continue to diminish. (It recently has been.)

Although it will take some more time to get rid of the positive 90 day average.

The subsurface changes are the key here though. The current neutral / warming is not even close enough to sustain one. So we will need to see the building of some more warmer anomalies below. Especially in the western Pacific.

I realize where you are coming from when you mention that a later start would be better but the ENSO trends have not been developing in the same manner that we witnessed throughout the 90's. The somewhat reliable winter time developing pattern seems to have been replaced by a spring time one.

One could speculate about the involvement of the MJO, QBO, stratosphere, and space weather. And even how all of this effects the AMO/Atlantic hurricane season.

I am becoming more and more convinced that these overall pattern changes, whether it be the AMO or the ENSO are definitely related to the ozone changes and this effects the stratosphere's temperatures and this is where space weather might come in. It can have an effect upon ozone levels by way of destruction and formation.

This upper level relationship could also explain why the space weather/climate relationship has alluded us for so long. We monitor the troposphere quite well and we have been doing this for a very long time but the stratosphere is a different story. We also do not understand the complex relationship way up above.

Answer to your question....An El Nino, both SOI (90 day average > -5.0 )and positive SST's anomalies in the 3.4 Region will be in place by March 2007. The SST anomalies will meet NOAA's requirement.


Jim