Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

[senorpepr]

It wouldn't surprise me if the 03Z update from JMA has Chanchu officially at 75KT (10-min.... roughly 85KT 1-min).

[HurricaneHunter914]

Chanchu looks very organized and is making a come back from its last landfall.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

WTPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 13.7N 117.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 117.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 13.6N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 14.1N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.5N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.0N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 20.2N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.1N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 26.1N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 117.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 31 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.//

NNNN


I agree Senroperp that 85 knots sounds about right. Not to much different from JTWC 90 knots now. I think the JTWC is a little high. I say toping out at 115 knots then weaking to around 95 to 100 knots by the time it hits land.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm going with the JTWC, but I think she'll be making landfall with 115 kts-120kts. (135 mph-140 mph).

[HurricaneBill]

I'm thinking landfall around 75KT or 80KT. However, weakening storms do tend to expand in size.

[Jim Cantore]

I'm thinking landfall around 75KT or 80KT. However, weakening storms do tend to expand in size.

larger storms, larger surge, larger surge = oh crap

[Derek Ortt]

125KT at landfall is very suspect

It may peak at that, but weaken before landfall. Once a storm turns north like this one will, unles sit hooks NE, there is usually an increase in shear

Also, the inner core is still not well defined, definately not a cat 2 typhoon

[Jim Cantore]

125KT at landfall is very suspect

It may peak at that, but weaken before landfall. Once a storm turns north like this one will, unles sit hooks NE, there is usually an increase in shear

Also, the inner core is still not well defined, definately not a cat 2 typhoon

I agree, they're estimateing intensity from satelitte images, which we know is like walking blind.

[senorpepr]

I'm thinking landfall around 75KT or 80KT. However, weakening storms do tend to expand in size.

larger storms, larger surge, larger surge = oh crap

FWIW, it would take a very large surge to really affect Hong Kong. 15-20' would only affect things right along the coast.

[Normandy]

What about winds and the highrises?

[Jim Cantore]

I'm thinking landfall around 75KT or 80KT. However, weakening storms do tend to expand in size.

larger storms, larger surge, larger surge = oh crap

FWIW, it would take a very large surge to really affect Hong Kong. 15-20' would only affect things right along the coast.

Thats the worry

but as of now, I dont think its much to worry about, unless it intensifys, who knows, this could be at 200kts or 20 kts, we have no clue.

[senorpepr]

What about winds and the highrises?

That's going to be the main threat, but the likelihood of this going into the CBD of Hong Kong as a major typhoon is very low.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A cat1 into a city of 7 million people like Hong kong can do a heck of alot of damage. Hong kong is 16 1/2 times the size of New orleans. Its about as big as New york...

[Normandy]

Im sure Hong Kong has stronger codes than NO does tho.

[HURAKAN]

Im sure Hong Kong has stronger codes than NO does tho.

That's true. If you saw Super Typhoon in the Discovery Channel, the city is very prepared, especially for flooding, but if winds are very high the damage to the city will be something just horrific.

[cheezyWXguy]

gee, hurakan...I dont know how well Hong Kong would withstand the sotrm if it looked like Mala in ur avatar

[HurricaneHunter914]

Can someone post the picture showing the forecast models for Chanchu (Caloy).

[senorpepr]

Can someone post the picture showing the forecast models for Chanchu (Caloy).

http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html

[HURAKAN]

PRETTY CONSISTENT, SHOULD I SAY.

[cheezyWXguy]

I have the feeling that this is going to get very strong very fast,,,the pinhole eye reminds me of wilma