MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0837
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0606 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX/LOWER TX COASTAL PLAIN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 337...
   
   VALID 102306Z - 110100Z
   
   SCT SVR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SEWD
   ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX
   AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW 337.
   
   VWP DATA FROM BRO INDICATES RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IN THE 1-3 KM
   LAYER AGL. THIS WEAK WIND IS LESS PREVALENT OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WW
   337 PER THE CRP VWP. THE WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW WILL TEND TO SUPPORT
   CELL MERGERS AND RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED AND VARYING STORM MOTIONS.
   HOWEVER THIS WEAKNESS WILL LIKELY DO LITTLE TO DIMINISH THE SVR
   THREAT GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT RESIDES OVER THIS REGION
   /MLCAPES FROM 4000-5000 J/KG/. THE MAIN SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN LARGE
   HAIL AND DMGG WINDS...BUT DEVIANT STORM MOTIONS WILL SUPPORT
   SLIGHTLY GREATER LOW LEVEL SRH AND BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT FOR
   THE NEXT FEW HRS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...BRO...
   
   29099661 27279657 25309888 26409903 27339904 27889793

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0838
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0620 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA PERHAPS INTO NERN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 102320Z - 110015Z
   
   THREAT OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW 338
   BETWEEN 11/0000-11/0030Z AND A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
   
   WELL-DEFINED BOW ECHO FROM 30 SW MCN TO NEAR ABY...AS OF 2310Z...HAS
   ACCELERATED TO 40-50 KTS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO ALONG OR SLIGHTLY
   ON THE COOL SIDE OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM N OF
   ABY TO S OF JAX.  RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT LEADING GUST FRONT REMAINS
   QUITE CLOSE TO MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE TOWERS...SUGGESTING THAT
   SYSTEM COLD POOL IS BEING BALANCED BY RELATIVELY STRONG
   STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. MOREOVER...MAXWELL AFB VWP INDICATES THE
   PRESENCE OF 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW /3-6 KM AGL/ WHICH MAY BE A
   CONVECTIVELY INDUCED REAR INFLOW JET WHICH IS BEING SUPPORTED BY
   FAIRLY EXPANSIVE TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE BOW.
   
   EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT MCS MOTION TAKES IT OUT OF WW 338 BETWEEN
   0030-0100Z.  AIR MASS ALONG AND N OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
   REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING...WHICH
   SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THIS BOW ECHO TO THE SERN GA OR FAR
   NERN FL COAST.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   32288297 32438241 32128157 31528117 30268129 29928166
   30568296

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0839
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0703 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 336...
   
   VALID 110003Z - 110200Z
   
   SVR THREAT HAS BEEN WANING OVER WW 336 IN THE LAST HR. IF TRENDS
   CONTINUE...WW WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY /PRIOR TO 03Z
   EXPIRATION TIME/.
   
   RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING AND
   DISSIPATION OF EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN
   PORTIONS OF WW 336. WITH THE COMBINATION OF A LARGE AMT OF CIRRUS
   BLOW-OFF FROM SVR STORMS TO THE SOUTH OF WW 336 AND NWLY OUTFLOW
   FROM EARLIER STORMS /PER HGX VWP/...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE EXISTS FOR NEW SVR TSTMS TO REDEVELOP
   ALONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW
   336 IN THE NEXT 2 HRS. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT
   WILL TAKE ANY REMAINING LIMITED SVR THREAT OUT OF WW 336 BY 02Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...
   
   28719657 27919661 29259467 29949465

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0840
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0743 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...WRN OH...AND NRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 339...
   
   VALID 110043Z - 110245Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE WITH CONVECTION MOVING
   ENEWD ACROSS SRN IND AND NRN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. WRN AREAS OF
   WW 339 /EVANSVILLE AREA/ SHOULD HAVE SEEN AN END TO THE TORNADO
   THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
   
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ORGANIZED JUST AHEAD OF MID LEVEL VORT CENTER AND
   SFC LOW OVER SWRN IND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD AROUND 25 KTS
   ACROSS SCENTRAL/SERN IND AND NCENTRAL KY DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.
   SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL CELLS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
   MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND EACH OF THESE HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF
   WEAK TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL ROTATION. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
   REGION REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES AS LOW
   LEVEL VORTICITY /AXIS OF MAX PRESSURE FALLS/ AND THE LOWEST 3 KM
   CAPE REMAIN MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND IN THE INSTABILITY
   AXIS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY CONTINUE NEWD INTO
   WRN OH AND OUT OF WW 339 WITHIN THE 2-3 HRS...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME
   UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGEVITY OF THE TORNADO THREAT AS THE AIRMASS
   WAS COOLER AND MORE STABLE IN THIS AREA...AND WILL NOT LIKELY
   DESTABILIZE GREATLY THIS EVENING. NONETHELESS...THIS AREA WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR A NEW TORNADO WW BEFORE 04Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...
   
   39228676 38888698 37858701 37428704 37988465 38668343
   41228348

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0841
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS INTO SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 110057Z - 110230Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
   PERSIST BEYOND 02Z AND A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
   
   AS OF 0040Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG TO
   SEVERE TSTMS FROM 40 NE MCB TO NEAR AND NE OF GZH...FOCUSED MAINLY
   ALONG A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING SWD.  VOLUMETRIC
   RADAR DATA SHOW THAT SUPERCELLS HAVE PERSISTED WITHIN THIS LARGER
   CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...MAINLY OF WHICH HAVE LIKELY BECOME SLIGHTLY
   ELEVATED TO THE N OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  GIVEN THE RECENT SWD
   SURGE IN THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...PARTICULARLY FROM NEAR GZH WWD
   INTO SERN MS /35 ENE PIB/...IT APPEARS THAT MERGING STORM DOWNDRAFTS
   HAVE FORMED A RELATIVELY SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL...SUGGESTING A
   CONTINUED TRANSITION TO OUTFLOW-DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE.
   
   11/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM SLIDELL AND TALLAHASSEE INDICATE A MOIST AND
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE INFLOW AIR MASS...THOUGH A CAP DID EXIST IN THE
   850-700 MB LAYER.  MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF EVOLVING
   COLD POOL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FORCE PARCELS TO THE
   LFC...EFFECTIVELY MAINTAINING ONGOING STORMS SEWD TOWARD THE GULF
   COAST. SHOULD CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR
   A SECONDARY BOWING STRUCTURE ACROSS SRN AL INTO THE FL PNHDL THROUGH
   THE 0204Z TIME FRAME.  DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL APPEAR TO
   BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
   WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN REMAIN
   SURFACE-BASED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...
   
   31099029 31658953 31498760 31408600 30508556 30098665
   30168815 30248975

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0842
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0941 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP S TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 337...
   
   VALID 110241Z - 110345Z
   
   THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST BEYOND 03Z. AN
   ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   AS OF 0230Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
   POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER BROOKS...HIDALGO AND KENEDY COUNTIES
   MOVING ESEWD.  THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
   FRONT WITHIN A WARM AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS.  THE THREAT OF
   MAINLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
   THROUGH 04Z OWING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL
   SHEAR /PER BRO VWP/.
   
   GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE AND TIME DURATION OF
   THIS THREAT...NO ADDITIONAL WW IS ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
   
   26389900 26989868 27469792 27189741 26339717 25839745

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0843
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1034 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA SWD INTO THE FL PNHDL AND NRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 338...340...
   
   VALID 110334Z - 110500Z
   
   THROUGH 05-06Z...ISOLATED STRONG WINDS AND/OR SEVERE HAIL WILL
   REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FL PNHDL INTO WRN GA. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS
   NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   AS OF 0315Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED LEAD BOW ECHO MOVING EWD
   OFF THE SERN GA AND FAR NERN FL COASTS WITH TRAILING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD INTO TAYLOR COUNTY FL AND THEN NWWD TO
   INTERSECTION WITH SECONDARY BOWING STRUCTURE OVER WASHINGTON OR
   JACKSON COUNTIES IN THE CNTRL FL PNHDL.  THUS...IT APPEARS THAT NEWD
   EXTENSION OF SECONDARY BOW OVER CLAY AND EARLY COUNTIES IN SWRN GA
   MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE INVERSION.
   
   INFLUX OF MOIST AIR MASS ALONG 20-25 KT WSWLY LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
   NERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MAINTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND
   SOME SEVERE HAIL OVER THE FL PNHDL INTO SWRN GA.  THIS THREAT
   APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED. 
   
   FARTHER TO THE E...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS DECREASING ACROSS WW
   340 WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE BOW ECHO OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER...INITIAL
   BOOKEND VORTEX REMAINS WELL DEFINED OVER LONG COUNTY GA...WITH SOME
   THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO AS
   IT MOVES EWD TOWARD THE COAST.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   30558727 31288541 33158529 32038089 29978110 30528368
   29498429 29858649

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0844
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0923 AM CDT THU MAY 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN PA...WRN NY...NRN/ERN WV...MD
   PANHANDLE...SERN LE...SRN LO.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 111423Z - 111630Z
   
   BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION -- EVIDENT AT 14Z FROM VICINITY OH/PA
   BORDER SSWWD ACROSS WV -- MAY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AS IT
   MOVES ENEWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  MAIN
   CONCERN IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS FROM LEWP/BOW
   FEATURES THAT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS BAND.
   
   MODIFIED PIT RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER
   PARCELS WILL BECOME SFC BASED WITH TEMPS NEAR 70 F AND MID 50S F SFC
   DEW POINTS.  850/925 MB RAOB ANALYSES INDICATE RICHER MOISTURE
   UPSTREAM ABOVE SFC AS WELL.  INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL THETAE
   IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD/DEVELOP NWD OVER NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF MAIN
   FORCING BAND DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS.  EXPECT WEAK DIABATIC HEATING TO
   RAISE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION
   CONTINUES...AMIDST SLY-SELY SFC-850 MB FLOW.  MLCAPES SHOULD REMAIN
   UNDER 500 J/KG BECAUSE OF WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THIS STILL
   SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE THREAT GIVEN VIGOR OF
   DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC FIELDS...HOWEVER MEAN FLOW VECTOR HAS ONLY
   SMALL COMPONENT ACROSS FORCING BOUNDARY.  WITH SLGT ELY COMPONENT TO
   SFC FLOW...0-6 KM SHEARS 50-60 KT AND SLIGHTLY ENLARGED LOW LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS ARE EVIDENT IN VWP AND RUC WIND DATA...ALONG WITH 0-3 KM
   SHEAR AROUND 40-45 KT.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
   
   38298109 39598071 40898063 42008050 42457972 42867889
   42937889 42987900 43337905 43497827 43017791 42467779
   41187754 39927791 39397831 38767902 38218081

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0845
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1219 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN IL...SWRN INDIANA...WRN/CENTRAL
   KY...WRN/MIDDLE TN.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 111719Z - 111915Z
   
   SVR TSTM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
   AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...BENEATH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE PSBL.  AREA WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA BECAUSE OF
   1. STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL ASCENT/COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
   PERTURBATION MOVING SEWD ACROSS NRN/ERN MO...REMOVING INTENSE
   MIDLEVEL STABLE LAYER PRESENT IN MORNING SOUNDING AT BNA...AND
   2. BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MIXING RELATED TO STRONG SFC
   INSOLATION...WHICH IS OFFSETTING POSTFRONTAL CAA ENOUGH TO BOOST SFC
   TEMPS INTO MID 60S F.
   
   WITH GENERALLY WLY SFC WINDS OVER MOST OF THIS AREA...CONVERGENCE
   SHOULD REMAIN WEAK.  HOWEVER...CINH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER
   WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING..RESULTING IN MLCAPES 100-400 J/KG.
   INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL RESULT...ENHANCING DCAPE AND
   SUPPORTING MAINTENANCE OF ANY STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS AND
   HAILSTONES GENERATED ALOFT AS THEY DESCEND THROUGH SUBCLOUD LAYER.
   MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MRGL BUOYANCY AND SFC LIFT.  VERTICAL
   WIND PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT WITH 0-6 KM
   SHEARS INCREASING TO 50-60 KT AS MID-UPPER SPEED MAX APCHS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...
   
   37008911 38418924 39178902 39618838 39518755 38408590
   36938543 35528638 35148744 35578812 36628901

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0846
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/CENTRAL VA...WRN MD...DC...CENTRAL
   NC...NRN/ERN SC.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 111857Z - 112100Z
   
   SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING PRIMARILY ACROSS PIEDMONT FROM SC
   TO POTOMAC RIVER REGION...SHIFTING EWD THROUGH AFTERNOON TOWARD
   TIDEWATER AREA OF NC/VA/MD.  DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL LARGE
   HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVER SOME PORTION OF THIS
   CORRIDOR.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM ERN WV SWWD ACROSS EXTREME
   NWRN SC...WITH PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE/WIND SHIFT LINE ABOUT 50-80 NM
   FARTHER E.  BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
   DESTABILIZING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO ACROSS THIS REGION...AS SFC
   TEMPS HEAT INTO LOW 80S F WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY LOW-MID 60S.
   RATE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION MAY BE LIMITED BY
   WEAK LAPSE RATES IN MIDLEVELS...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 800-1500 J/KG.  NRN PORTION OF MOST
   FAVORABLE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WILL BE BOUNDED BY SFC WARM FRONT --
   NOW ANALYZED NEAR SHD-RIC-ORF LINE.  THIS FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD INTO
   NRN VA AND PERHAPS PORTIONS SRN/WRN MD BEFORE COLD FROPA.
   
   KINEMATICALLY....MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO
   TIGHTEN AND SHIFT ACROSS THIS AREA AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ESEWD
   ACROSS LOWER OH/TN VALLEY REGIONS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR STRENGTHENING FROM W-E ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND WITH NWD
   EXTENT.  EFFECTIVE AND 0-6 KM SHEARS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH NWD EXTENT
   FROM 30-35 KT ALONG SC/NC BORDER TO 45-50 KT ALONG WARM FRONT.
   THERE MAY BE SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL INVOF WARM FRONT WHERE ANY
   DISCRETE STORMS MOVE THROUGH RELATED BACKING OF SFC WINDS AND
   ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS...WITH 0-3 KM SRH 200-300 J/KG IN FRONTAL ZONE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...
   
   34598136 35258125 36458062 37357994 37857947 38297907
   38577879 38817850 39087809 39387732 39067680 38457650
   36457628 35377703 34617780 34247881 33778040

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0847
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0446 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA INTO CNTRL/ERN MD INTO S-CNTRL/SERN PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 112146Z - 112245Z
   
   ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES N OF WW 342 AND A WW WILL
   LIKELY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 2230Z.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW ALONG COLD FRONT NE OF CHO
   WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF
   CHESAPEAKE BAY.  LATEST SHORT TERM RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
   SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NWD INTO S-CNTRL PA BY 12/03Z WITH
   ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT RETREATING NWD THROUGH NRN VA AND CNTRL/ERN
   MD.  MODEST LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING OVERALL
   INSTABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WITH MLCAPES OF
   500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...CURRENT STERLING VA INDICATES RELATIVELY
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR JUST N OF WARM FRONT WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF
   250-350 M2/S2.
   
   GIVEN THE NWD MIGRATION OF SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT...CO-LOCATION
   OF THIS STRONG SHEAR AND NRN EDGE OF STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL
   PROGRESSIVELY DEVELOP N OF WW 342 THIS EVENING...AND AN ADDITIONAL
   TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...
   
   38497815 39537817 40367816 40847750 40727621 39547573
   38437642

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0848
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0813 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN VA INTO ERN MD
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 342...
   
   VALID 120113Z - 120215Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
   THROUGH 02Z ACROSS FAR SERN VA AND ERN MD.  WW 342 WILL BE ALLOWED
   TO EXPIRE AT 02Z.
   
   AS OF 0100Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A WAVY LINE OF TSTMS FROM E OF
   NHK TO 20 SW OF ORF MOVING NEWD AT 20-30 KTS. 00Z WAL SOUNDING
   INDICATES THAT STORMS ARE LIKELY MOVING INTO A REGION OF STRONGER
   SURFACE-BASED STABILITY OWING TO MARINE INFLUENCES...THOUGH SOME
   WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY STILL EXISTS /I.E. 700-800 J/KG OF MUCAPE/.
   GIVEN MODESTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OBSERVED ON THIS
   SOUNDING...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR BOWING OR MARGINAL SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH 02Z.
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MOST
   INTENSE STORMS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...
   
   37817638 37897601 37737547 36167565 36017639 36217695
   36897654

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0845 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MD/SERN PA PERHAPS INTO DE AND SWRN NJ
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 343...
   
   VALID 120145Z - 120245Z
   
   THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN
   PORTIONS OF WW 343 PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF DE AND FAR SWRN NJ.  WW
   343 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z.
   
   AS OF 0140Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE LINE
   FROM 20 E OF CXY TO 20 W OF WAL WITH INDIVIDUAL CELL MOTIONS NEWD AT
   25-30 KTS.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS MESOSCALE DISCUSSION /848/ IT
   APPEARS THAT THIS CONVECTION IS ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASINGLY MORE
   STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. MODESTLY STRONG
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT OF LOCALLY
   STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS...THOUGH IT APPEARS
   OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH 03Z.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
   
   40077645 40347603 40157531 38987511 38357546 38457598

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0850
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0137 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN GA...SRN/WRN AL...NRN FL
   PANHANDLE...NRN/ERN MS.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 131837Z - 132030Z
   
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH
   21Z.  SOME SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING GUSTS.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS...VIS SATELLITE TRENDS AND REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS
   ALL SHOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX....AS OF
   18Z...MOVING SWD ABOUT 10 KT ACROSS LINE FROM EARLY COUNTY GA TO NRN
   COVINGTON COUNTY AL.  BOUNDARY HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY FARTHER
   WNWWD FROM BUTLER COUNTY AL TO NEAR MEI AND DIFFUSE NNWWD BETWEEN
   TUP-GWO.  IT SHOULD STALL WITHIN NEXT COUPLE HOURS NEAR NRN BORDER
   OF FL PANHANDLE WITH SWRN GA.  THOUGH CINH IS WEAKENING ON BOTH
   SIDES...BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL FOCUS MAXIMIZED CONVERGENCE...LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR AND SFC VORTICITY...AND SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. AIR MASS NW OF
   OUTFLOW POOL ACROSS NRN MS IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY ALSO BASED ON
   ACARS/RUC SOUNDINGS AND WILL SUPPORT STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS.
   
   MODIFIED RAOBS AS WELL AS WRF AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CINH
   VANISHES WITH SFC TEMPS LOW 80S F...AS ARE BEGINNING TO OCCUR ON
   SRN/WARM SIDE OF BOUNDARY...AND DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 50S...WHICH
   CHARACTERIZE COOL NRN SIDE.  LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH WWD
   EXTENT...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL MLCAPES 1500 J/KG ACROSS NRN/ERN MS TO
   500 J/KG OR LESS SWRN GA/NRN FL PANHANDLE.  RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD
   LAYER OVER WARM SECTOR LIMITS CAPE...BUT ALSO SUPPORT MAINTAINING
   INTENSITY OF HAIL/GUSTS FROM DOWNDRAFT ORIGINS DOWN TO SFC.  THOUGH
   SFC FLOW IS WEAK...DEEPER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS
   AND BOWS...WITH ROUGHLY 50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...
   
   30928607 31658801 32908958 34189074 34969002 34748839
   33748813 32628770 31548590 31368488 31278457 30868437
   30578440 30558490 30808574

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0851
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0439 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX S PLAINS INTO W-CNTRL AND SWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 132139Z - 132315Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH
   DEVELOPING STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   AS OF 2125Z...REGIONAL RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
   TOWERING CUMULUS AND EARLY TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COUPLE OF
   SURFACE BOUNDARIES FROM S OF LBB TO W OF ABI AND THEN SWWD TO FST.
   AMBIENT AIR MASS HAS WARMED THROUGH THE 90S TO AROUND 100 F WHICH IS
   RESULTING A DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. UP TO 650 MB
   PER RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS/.  MOREOVER...CORRESPONDING RUC
   HODOGRAPHS AND CURRENT JAYTON PROFILER INDICATE LOW-LEVEL SLY WINDS
   VEERING TO NWLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERE WITH 35-40 KTS OF
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
   
   DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF AN APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG
   EXISTING LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN
   INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING.  DAMAGING WINDS
   APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OWING TO STRONG EVAPORATIVE
   COOLING POTENTIAL /I.E. DCAPES AOA 1500 J/KG/. SOME HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   30520238 31130254 32300054 32900149 33410137 33550019
   32899942 32109932 31350014 30310190

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0533 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS INTO NRN AND CNTRL AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 132233Z - 140000Z
   
   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION
   AREA AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
   
   COLUMBUS AFB MS RADAR INDICATES THAT A TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED
   OVER UNION COUNTY IN NERN MS AND LINCOLN COUNTY INTO SRN MIDDLE
   TN...PRESUMABLY ALONG A NWD-RETREATING BOUNDARY /PER VISIBLE
   SATELLITE/.  SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
   SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WITHIN EXIT REGION OF
   70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
   INTO CNTRL GULF STATES.
   
   RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THAT AIR MASS IS NOT
   PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OWING TO THE MARGINAL BOUNDARY-LAYER
   MOISTURE...THOUGH SBCAPES STILL REMAIN AROUND 1000 J/KG.
   HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
   JET STREAK /REF. OKOLONA MS PROFILER/ WITH AROUND 60 KTS OF DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR.
   
   SHOULD STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED...THE
   INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
   SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS /WITH EMBEDDED BOWS
   AND SUPERCELLS/ CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS.  THIS THREAT
   WOULD LIKELY SPREAD SEWD INTO CNTRL AL TONIGHT.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
   
   34668919 35098883 35198704 34838610 33608601 33188709
   33388851 34018923

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0853
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0657 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TN INTO NRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 132357Z - 140100Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
   APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND AN ADDITIONAL WW
   MAY BE NECESSARY.
   
   TSTMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS EVENING OVER SRN MIDDLE TN FROM
   LINCOLN EWD TO MARION COUNTY.  THESE STORMS ARE MOVING LEFT OF THE
   MEAN WIND AND MAY NOT TRULY BE ROOTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER.  GIVEN
   INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM JET STREAK
   DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE WRN TN VALLEY...AND INCREASING WAA TONIGHT
   ALONG SWLY LLJ...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...
   
   35318562 35598481 35328362 34668323 34158367 33808413
   33788472 33948536

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0854
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0751 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 140051Z - 140145Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE E OF WW 344
   INTO W-CNTRL GA AFTER 0130-0200Z.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING
   FROM NERN MS /E OF TUP/ SEWD THROUGH S-CNTRL AL INTO THE FL PNHDL.
   WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THIS BOUNDARY...DRIVEN BY INTENSIFYING
   WSWLY LLJ FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO AL...IS LIKELY SUPPORTING
   ONGOING TSTMS SE OF BHM.  INSPECTION OF 14/00Z BHM SOUNDING SUGGESTS
   THAT THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY BASED AT 850 MB WHERE MUCAPES REMAIN
   AROUND 1500 J/KG.  POSSIBLY MORE IMPORTANTLY IS THE RATHER STRONG
   VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER.
   
   FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF WLY LLJ IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE
   REGION.  INFLUX OF POTENTIALLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SW
   ATOP OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD MAINTAIN ONGOING STORMS...WITH
   REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON UPSHEAR PART OF COMPLEX.  SEVERE HAIL WILL
   LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...UNLESS STORMS CAN ORGANIZE A
   COLD POOL...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...
   
   33588518 33678468 33578389 32948347 32148395 32148467
   32478498 32768510

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0855
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0937 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX AND SRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 140237Z - 140400Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO
   BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA.  STORM INITIATION IS
   ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 03 AND 04Z.  A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
   
   02Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED QUASI-STATIONARY OR WEAK COLD FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY FROM SURFACE LOW N OF MAF ENEWD THROUGH NRN TX AND THEN
   INTO CNTRL OR SRN AR.  AS MENTIONED IN 01Z CONVECTIVE
   OUTLOOK...14/00Z FTW SOUNDING INDICATED A RATHER STRONG CAP IN PLACE
   ACROSS WARM SECTOR.  VWP TRENDS FROM DYESS AFB INDICATE THAT LLJ HAS
   INTENSIFIED TO 30-40 KTS OVER THE PAST HOUR...WHICH IS LIKELY
   ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OVER NWRN TX...AND
   EFFECTIVELY WEAKENING CAP.  LATEST SHORT-TERM RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
   THAT THE INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
   LIKELY BETWEEN 14/03-04Z ALONG OR SLIGHTLY N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
   ALONG THE RED RIVER.
   
   THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES / 8-8.5 C/KM / AND A
   POTENTIALLY MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS / MUCAPES OF
   2000-3000 J/KG /  SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
   SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  ANY STORMS
   THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH THE GREATEST
   THREAT BEING FROM LARGE HAIL.  HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY
   STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
   
   33080000 33930022 34359962 34489862 34289716 34159591
   33679526 33059561 32659687 32839911

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1045 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO SWRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 140345Z - 140445Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
   SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH PRIOR TO 0430Z.
   
   AS OF 0340Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A FAIRLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL
   MOVING SEWD THROUGH WEBSTER AND SUMTER COUNTIES IN SWRN GA WITH
   ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING NEWD INTO
   TAYLOR COUNTY. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN QUITE STRONG
   AND SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...RUC OBJECTIVE
   FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS ARE MOVING S OF ERN BRANCH OF WSWLY
   LLJ...AND INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL
   LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH 0400-0430Z...WITH STORMS LIKELY WEAKENING
   THEREAFTER.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...
   
   32148469 32678429 32828313 31948274 31668454