Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

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HURAKAN
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#481 Postby HURAKAN » Sat May 13, 2006 10:47 pm

cheezywxman wrote:gee, hurakan...I dont know how well Hong Kong would withstand the sotrm if it looked like Mala in ur avatar


I said that I would change my avatar every time a major cyclone forms, and that my avatar would just be a remainder of the last major cyclone. I think I will have to change it soon.
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#482 Postby senorpepr » Sat May 13, 2006 10:47 pm

Actually... the eye feature is filling up and becoming less defined. Link
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#483 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat May 13, 2006 10:49 pm

A few models show Chanchu hitting Hong Kong as a Super Typhoon. The others take her into Hong Kong as a Tropical Storm or possibly a Depression. Lets see how it works out.
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#484 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat May 13, 2006 10:50 pm

I don't think that was a eye just a dry air near the center. I think its now becoming more developed central core. In about 6 hours the real eye will come out.
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#485 Postby HURAKAN » Sat May 13, 2006 10:50 pm

14/0233 UTC 13.7N 117.1E T5.0/5.0 CHANCHU -- West Pacific Ocean

DVORAK going up once again.
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#486 Postby senorpepr » Sat May 13, 2006 10:51 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:A few models show Chanchu hitting Hong Kong as a Super Typhoon. The others take her into Hong Kong as a Tropical Storm or possibly a Depression. Lets see how it works out.


Which ones? Every one I've seen keep Chanchu below 130KT for a peak intensity.
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#487 Postby senorpepr » Sat May 13, 2006 10:52 pm

TPPN10 KGWC 140330
A. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU)
B. 14/0231Z (37)
C. 13.8N/2
D. 117.0E/9
E. FOUR/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS -13/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

15A/ PBO BND EYE/ANMTN.

AODT: T6.0 (UCCR)

WOLLMANN
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#488 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat May 13, 2006 10:52 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... gmssht.GIF

Looking at shear maps Chanchu will probably be a minimum Tropical Storm by the time it makes landfall. I don't see anything that could cause a change in the high shear but anything is possible.
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#489 Postby Normandy » Sat May 13, 2006 10:54 pm

Depends on how strong it gets within the next few hours....if it bombs out then who knows how strong it will be when it hits.
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#490 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat May 13, 2006 11:10 pm

The stronger the system... the more sensitive to shear


Also, this shows that the AODT is not very useful until we ge a well-defined eye. 115KT? Reminds me when I got a T 3.0/3.0 on Frances when it was a wave a couple of years ago
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CHRISTY

#491 Postby CHRISTY » Sat May 13, 2006 11:20 pm

You can See the PINHOLE EYE on this VISIBLE image! :eek:

Image
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#492 Postby senorpepr » Sat May 13, 2006 11:23 pm

I wouldn't call it a pinhole eye. It's rather far from that. A pinhole eye would suggest powerhouse strength. Chanchu is not very "powerhouse" at this point.
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#493 Postby CHRISTY » Sat May 13, 2006 11:28 pm

senorpepr wrote:I wouldn't call it a pinhole eye. It's rather far from that. A pinhole eye would suggest powerhouse strength. Chanchu is not very "powerhouse" at this point.


It will become a somewhat of a powerhouse before it begins to weaken some before it slams into HONGKONG and surrounding areas!
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#494 Postby senorpepr » Sat May 13, 2006 11:29 pm

CHRISTY wrote:
senorpepr wrote:I wouldn't call it a pinhole eye. It's rather far from that. A pinhole eye would suggest powerhouse strength. Chanchu is not very "powerhouse" at this point.


It will become a somewhat of a powerhouse before it begins to weaken some before it slams into HONGKONG and surrounding areas!


All I'm getting at is that Chanchu really doesn't have much of an eye. It never really did.
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#495 Postby senorpepr » Sat May 13, 2006 11:32 pm

Official advisory keeps it at 80KT (1-min)

WTPQ20 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 13.8N 117.1E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150300UTC 14.5N 115.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
45HF 160000UTC 17.3N 114.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
69HF 170000UTC 19.7N 114.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT =
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#496 Postby senorpepr » Sat May 13, 2006 11:35 pm

From Beijing:
WTPQ20 BABJ 140000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 140000 UTC
00HR 14.0N 117.6E 965HPA 35M/S
30KTS 450KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR WNW 15KM/H
P+24HR 15.2N 115.0E 960HPA 40M/S
P+48HR 17.2N 114.0E 950HPA 45M/S
P+72HR 20.2N 113.9E 940HPA 50M/S=
NNNN


From Hong Kong:
Bulletin issued at 10:01 HKT 14/May/2006

Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 140000 UTC, Typhoon Chanchu (0601) with central pressure
965 hectopascals was centred within 30 nautical miles of
one three point nine degrees north (13.9 N) one one seven
point five degrees east (117.5 E) and is forecast to move
west-northwest at about 6 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 70 knots.
Radius of over 33 knot winds 240 nautical miles.
Radius of over 47 knot winds 90 nautical miles.
Radius of over 63 knot winds 30 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 360 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 150000 UTC
One four point eight degrees north (14.8 N)
One one five point two degrees east (115.2 E)
Maximum winds 80 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 160000 UTC
One seven point two degrees north (17.2 N)
One one four point five degrees east (114.5 E)
Maximum winds 85 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 170000 UTC
Two zero point three degrees north (20.3 N)
One one four point seven degrees east (114.7 E)
Maximum winds 85 knots.


From Seoul:
ANALYSIS 0600 UTC 13 May 2006
Present Position 13.9 N, 119.3 E Moving Direction and Speed WNW, 22 km/h
Minimum Surface Pressure 975 hPa Maximum Sustained Wind 31 m/s
Radius of 15 m/s 520 km Radius of 25 m/s 70 km
FORECAST
24HRS 140600UTC 14.8 N, 116.3 E within 150km (35 m/s, 965 hPa)
48HRS 150600UTC 16.0 N, 114.5 E within 250km (43 m/s, 950 hPa)
72HRS 160600UTC 18.5 N, 113.4 E within 400km (43 m/s, 950 hPa)
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#497 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat May 13, 2006 11:37 pm

They are really trying to hide Chanchu's real strength, looking at SAT pics Chanchu is definitly not at 95 mph.
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#498 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat May 13, 2006 11:38 pm

how strong do u think it is?
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#499 Postby senorpepr » Sat May 13, 2006 11:44 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:They are really trying to hide Chanchu's real strength, looking at SAT pics Chanchu is definitly not at 95 mph.


What?! How can you say that?! It is most likely near 95 mph.
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#500 Postby senorpepr » Sat May 13, 2006 11:47 pm

I can't believe the quasi-bashing toward professional meteorologists which numerous years of experience...
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