Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

[senorpepr]

I've loaded up some new links for advisories on the S2K tropics page:

http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/wpac.htm

[CHRISTY]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 959.6mb/ 92.4kt

[HurricaneHunter914]

They are really trying to hide Chanchu's real strength, looking at SAT pics Chanchu is definitly not at 95 mph.

What?! How can you say that?! It is most likely near 95 mph.

It just looks near Cat-2 status with that eye appearing 100-105 mph looks just right to me. Its just my opinion so you shouldn't dwell on it so much.

[cheezyWXguy]

and with a pressure 0f 960 mb its gotta be closing up on cat 2... seems pretty normal

[senorpepr]

They are really trying to hide Chanchu's real strength, looking at SAT pics Chanchu is definitly not at 95 mph.

What?! How can you say that?! It is most likely near 95 mph.

It just looks near Cat-2 status with that eye appearing 100-105 mph looks just right to me. Its just my opinion so you shouldn't dwell on it so much.

It's hardly category two status. Where's this eye? There hasn't been a true eye feature yet and there surely isn't one now.

I mean... I respect you opinion, but you really shouldn't go out and say that all these professional meteorologists are "hiding" the real wind speed.

[CHRISTY]

Right now the presure is at around 959.6 mb. which supports a CAT 2.

[whereverwx]

Also, the pressures are much lower in the West Pacific than the Atlantic.

[cheezyWXguy]

Ya...but in the atlantic that kind of pressure would feature a cat 3

[senorpepr]

Right now the presure is at around 959.6 mb. which supports a CAT 2.

Don't use that computerized Dvorak thingy as the true pressure or strength. It's not a good measure of a storm's true intensity. Chanchu's pressure is a little higher than that and it's still a category one.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I will say that this has 85 to 90 knot winds...Also the system is growing and the deep convection is forming near the center. Like Katrina,Rita,Wilma ect that is what they all did. Also the all quad outflow jet is a sign of this might get quite strong. So once it doe's in fact form this eye it could strengthen at a fast clip.

[CHRISTY]

I will say this...This is the best looking CAT 1 i think i have seen in a while

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/vis-l.jpg

Senorepr, that is where I found the eye-like feature. I know from hurricane research most hurricanes get their eyes during Cat-2 status. I know 95 mph is Cat-2 but it is barely. Looking at Chanchu in that image it is too organized to be just at 95 mph. Hurricane Irene, 2005 had an eye-like feature like that and it was at 100 mph. Aswell I'm not discrediting these professional mets who right now are doing a fine job, I just think 95 mph in MY OPINION is a little low. So don't listen to me. I'm new here, I don't know much on the weather yet, I'm still young and my remark Chanchu being at 100 mph was just something to look at and ignore. So like I said DON'T DWELL ON IT SO MUCH AND MOVE ON!

[wxmann_91]

Eyes usually start appearing at Cat 1 strength, so that's normal. Though the outflow is extremely favorable, it seems Chanchu lacks cold cloud tops, probably owing to the marginal SST's and dry air, as evidenced by the stratocumulus to the north of the system.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Really because I've seen alot of Cat-1s and not many have eyes.

[wxmann_91]

Really because I've seen alot of Cat-1s and not many have eyes.

Look at visibles. The eye is very ill-defined.

[CHRISTY]

cant really see an eye feature yet on this IR image...

[HurricaneHunter914]

but isn't 95 mph cat-2 status?

[wxmann_91]

but isn't 95 mph cat-2 status?

nope. add one and it is

[HurricaneHunter914]

Category Two Hurricane:
Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. Hurricane Frances of 2004 made landfall over the southern end of Hutchinson Island, Florida as a Category Two hurricane. Hurricane Isabel of 2003 made landfall near Drum Inlet on the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane.

Found this on the computer looks like 95 mph is still cat-1 status. I still have alot ot learn.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Many storms like this develop a cold cdo then form a eye...Like in the case of Katrina that it took to it was about a upper cat2 to form its eye. Also rita and Wilma...With many other cases. Remember what it looks like doe's not mean what it is.