Does an active June and July mean a Busy Late Season Too?

[gatorcane]

This article is compliments of the NHC. A very good read as we approach the beginning of the season. I think on the surface, a more active early season would mean a slower late season due to the fact that the SSTs would generally be somewhat lower due to upwelling. Hurricanes exist simply to displace excess heat from the tropics to the northern lattitudes - so if there are many storms early, there is less "heat" to be displaced later:

Comments welcome!

snippet:
The formation of a storm in this region during June-July is taken into account when the August updates for the Bill Gray and NOAA seasonal forecasts are issued

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G8.html

[Ivanhater]

Well it didn't work last year, almost 2 cat 5's in July and still ended up going into overtime. Although I agree with the premise that early storms tend to take away the fuel for the big storms it is not a sure fire possibility as we saw with last year. Actually some storms might spread heat content to other areas, I forget what storm did just that last year, Dennis? I remember reading one of the discussions about it spreading some heat from the Caribbean . So I guess it is a good theory but doesn't work in all cases.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Too many other variables to come to any etched-in-stone conclusion; but it's an interesting theory.

A2K

[gatorcane]

Ivanhater what do you mean by:
"Actually some storms might spread heat content to other areas"

[Ivanhater]

Ivanhater what do you mean by:
"Actually some storms might spread heat content to other areas"

Let me see if I can dig up one of the NHC discussion from last year about it

[gatorcane]

Let me see if I can dig up one of the NHC discussion from last year about it

That is a pretty interesting phenomenon. I would like to know more about it, thanks

[Ivanhater]

Found it!!

Tropical Storm EMILY
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005

ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED THIS AFTERNOON...
EMILY IS MAINTAINING DECENT BANDING AND GOOD SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT
FROM AFWA. GIVEN THIS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE CYCLONE TOMORROW MORNING AT 12Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/17...AND ONCE AGAIN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE HAS EDGED SOUTHWARD. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAINTAINED NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE...KEEPING IT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE GFS AND NOGAPS ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

AS NOTED ABOVE...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STRONG...THE SHEAR IS
LOW...AND THE WATER IS WARM. SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
MAKE A MAJOR HURRICANE OUT OF EMILY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE STRENGTHENING TREND WILL
LIKELY RESUME WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DIURNAL MAXIMUM. THE
ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE PREDICTOR IN THE LATEST SHIPS STATISTICAL
MODEL RUN IS CLIMATOLOGY. SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS
TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY.

WHILE WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT THE COLD WAKE THAT HURRICANES LEAVE
BEHIND...IT APPEARS THAT HURRICANE DENNIS HAS ACTUALLY MADE
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WARMER...AND HENCE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF EMILY. HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THAT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF DENNIS HAVE SPREAD WARM WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AN AREA THAT COULD
BE TRAVERSED BY EMILY IN THREE DAYS OR SO.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[gatorcane]

WHILE WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT THE COLD WAKE THAT HURRICANES LEAVE
BEHIND...IT APPEARS THAT HURRICANE DENNIS HAS ACTUALLY MADE
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WARMER...AND HENCE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF EMILY. HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THAT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF DENNIS HAVE SPREAD WARM WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AN AREA THAT COULD
BE TRAVERSED BY EMILY IN THREE DAYS OR SO.

Yes, I do remember this discussion now. Wow that is pretty amazing.....

[benny]

This article is compliments of the NHC. A very good read as we approach the beginning of the season. I think on the surface, a more active early season would mean a slower late season due to the fact that the SSTs would generally be somewhat lower due to upwelling. Hurricanes exist simply to displace excess heat from the tropics to the northern lattitudes - so if there are many storms early, there is less "heat" to be displaced later:

Comments welcome!

snippet:
The formation of a storm in this region during June-July is taken into account when the August updates for the Bill Gray and NOAA seasonal forecasts are issued

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G8.html

I think a better way to look at it is that if low-latitude storms are forming during June/July .. when conditions are rather climatologically unfavorable... then wait until the seasonal peak in August/September/October. Shear has to be low and instability/SST has to be high in July to get developments in the low-latitudes.. and if those conditions are met early in the season.. it is almost assured they will remain or get more favorable later in the season just due to a general persistence or the typical decrease due to the seasonal cycle.