Invest 90E in the Eastern Pacific

[SouthFloridawx]

The first invest in the Eastern Pacific:

http://tinyurl.com/fmwmv

[SouthFloridawx]

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141542
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAY 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 9N98W 6N115W 11N133W 10N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
90W-96W...AND FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 96W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W-121W.

...DISCUSSION...

LOW NEAR 9N99W...
LARGE CONVECTIVE BLOW-UP BEGAN AROUND 00Z LAST NIGHT AND WAS
FOCUSED MAINLY AROUND THE S/SE PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. THIS ACTIVITY CREATED A NEARLY CIRCULAR 180 NM WIDE
EXPANDING CIRRUS SHIELD BUT MORE RECENTLY THE CONVECTION HAS
BROKEN UP INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS ALIGNED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS AND
S OF THE CENTER. A 1252Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL SOMEWHAT ELONGATED SINCE IT HAS NOT
YET DETACHED FROM THE ITCZ...BUT IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
MORE CIRCULAR AND COMPACT. THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT DIED OFF
LIKE IT DID THIS TIME YESTERDAY SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEE ITCZ FOR RELATED CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE E OF 110W...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
ACROSS MEXICO TO 12N110W WITH AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM
12N-20N W OF THE COAST. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED NEWD FROM THE LOW NEAR 9N98W TOWARDS SE MEXICO AND NRN
CENTRAL AMERICA. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS
FORMED WITHIN THIS MOISTURE FIELD SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
FROM 13N-15.5N BETWEEN 94W-100W. THE UPPER FLOW IS MAINLY W/NWLY
EMANATING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...BUT
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED TO THE E.

W OF 110W...
A LARGER UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA BUT THE SWLY
PART OF THE CIRCULATION EXTENDS INTO THE AREA N OF 20N W OF
120W. DRY AIR/MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 130W...WHILE ABUNDANT
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SHUTTLING NE OF 120W TOWARDS THE CA/BAJA CA
COAST. THIS MOISTURE IS FLOWING AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS
ALIGNED ALONG 115W...AND A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR MAZATLAN
MEXICO. IN THE TROPICS...ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EQ140W
TO 10N130W THEN EWD TO 10N110W. DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS
IS ALIGNED NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS AND IS AIDING IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 108W-122W.

$$
BERG

[SouthFloridawx]

Just hours before the start of the EPAC season we get our first invest.

As noted by the twd from the nhc.

[James]

This may well be an earlier start than last year then.

[Brandon007]

finally somthing to worth watching in our neck of the woods lol

[JonathanBelles]

ill laugh if we have our first TD at midnight

[Brandon007]

haha that would be ironic

[James]

You never know, might get a special tropical distrubance statement before long.

[HurricaneHunter914]

This will probably become a tropical storm, the circulation has rounded a little and the convection looks really deep. Anetta get ready to come out of your shell.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

1.0/1.0t on this...

[Brandon007]

^^^what does that mean

[SouthFloridawx]

That's right matt..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
14/1745 UTC 8.9N 99.7W T1.0/1.0 90E -- East Pacific Ocean

[SouthFloridawx]

Dvorak Current Intensity Chart

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS 29 MPH (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH
2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)

[Brandon007]

oh is that a measure of intensity on the T scale from 1-8? I almost forgot sorry i'm new to all of this

[HurricaneHunter914]

Isn't 25 kts depression level? That means this should be a depression soon.

[JonathanBelles]

i should learn to keep my mouth shut

[Brandon007]

ok this forum is going to exploed in the next 20 minutes or so

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

1.5=25 knots 1.0=20 knots...I say 1.5 is the lowest you can upgrade it to a depression. The nhc likes to wait for a 2.0=30 knots.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Fact789 maybe to avoid any other very lucky predictions don't say this will be a Cat-5 by tomorrow.

[wx247]

Wow... I just lazily walk into the tropics section expecting some discussion on the upcoming season and see this. Wow! Looks pretty good. Satellite image is interesting to say the least. I don't see this as a TD yet though. Give it some time.