Dry May has ended

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JamesFromMaine2
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#41 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sat May 13, 2006 11:10 pm

We are getting Flooding up here in Maine! lol We went from like drought conditions last month with wild fires and everything else to flooding this month! :( theres a flood warning for us over night tonight and it looks like every day this week we will atleast have a chance of rain! they said on the news that in the last 24hours we have gotten over 5 inches of rain! lol
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#42 Postby benny » Sat May 13, 2006 11:34 pm

ivanhater wrote:
benny wrote:
ivanhater wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:True. In the spirit of the topic of this thread, I wonder what all this could mean for the hurricane season. 2004 had a very dry may and strong ridge forced frances and jeanne into east Florida. Then 2005 ended up with a very wet May and still got hit by hurricanes so I guess we will have to wait yet again and see :roll:

<RICKY>


lol. I hear you on that. Our coastline is huge, someone if Florida is bound to get hit hard again


The Lushine study was for South Florida.. south of Tampa... not including any of N Florida or the panhandle...


?? I dont know what a study has to do with my statement :think:


I see what you mean... I thought you were referring to the danger poised by a dry May, which referred to S Florida only.
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CHRISTY

#43 Postby CHRISTY » Sat May 13, 2006 11:34 pm

Guys this has to be wrong!I Mean SST'S will rebound there's no doupt about that, but look at what The SST'S Will look like in 120 hrs!this is probably due to a couple of fronts that are forcast to past threw the area. :eek: :

Image
Last edited by CHRISTY on Sat May 13, 2006 11:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#44 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat May 13, 2006 11:39 pm

thats insane...I hardly believe thats going to happen
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#45 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun May 14, 2006 12:00 am

What?! In 120 hrs. the GOM is going to turn into a 2005 May scene but colder? I doubt that will happen.
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CHRISTY

#46 Postby CHRISTY » Sun May 14, 2006 12:18 am

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:What?! In 120 hrs. the GOM is going to turn into a 2005 May scene but colder? I doubt that will happen.


u can see for yourself...here's the link!


http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/

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#47 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun May 14, 2006 12:22 am

And to think we were raving on about a big major hurricane to form in the GOM. Well so much for that.
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#48 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun May 14, 2006 12:23 am

Oh yeah. That northwest flow left behind from the extratropical storm over the Great Lakes will absolutely kill the SST's. They'll rebound quickly though.
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#49 Postby Aquawind » Sun May 14, 2006 5:52 am

Standard proceedure.. Fropa this time of year can dramtically change the surface temps.. Come June and July no Fropa hence hot n sticky long days with high sun angle and no recovery needed. Thus we have "Prime Time" in August-September. Still waiting for this Dry May thread to die...
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CHRISTY

#50 Postby CHRISTY » Sun May 14, 2006 6:25 am

RAINFALL IS ON THE WAY FOR SOUTHFLORIDA!

000
FXUS62 KMFL 140834
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
434 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

...MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS ON THE HORIZON...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTROL SOUTH FLORIDA
WEATHER TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...AND WITH SUBSIDENCE AND LOW ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN
PLACE (PWAT SHY OF AN INCH ACCORDING TO GPS MET DATA)...EXPECT FULL
SUNSHINE ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S
INTERIOR...BUT SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS WILL HOLD TEMPS IN
THE 80S THERE. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE TRANQUIL AS
WELL...BEFORE THINGS CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY THEREAFTER.

ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
BROAD CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL ACT TO PUSH A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FL. MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA ON DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING DRAMATICALLY FROM AROUND ONE INCH MONDAY MORNING
TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY MON NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY COULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
THUS...INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

GFS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
FL MONDAY NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW RATHER HIGH SHEAR VALUES IN A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA MON NIGHT...SO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD
BET...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SHOULD
THIS SCENARIO PLAY OUT. THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
TUESDAY...STALLING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS FLOW
BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DEEP WITH A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...SUPPORTING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCALLY ON TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TIMING
IS UNCERTAIN.
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#51 Postby benny » Sun May 14, 2006 8:50 am

CHRISTY wrote:Guys this has to be wrong!I Mean SST'S will rebound there's no doupt about that, but look at what The SST'S Will look like in 120 hrs!this is probably due to a couple of fronts that are forcast to past threw the area. :eek: :

Image


Any amount of strong winds really churns up the gulf. Just too early for worrying though. I can only harp on it so many times.. but that shelf water warms up dramatically as the sun gets overhead and it doesn't take long for it to support hurricanes. the early season stuff is usually just junk anyway and marginal SSTs are all you need.. it is exceptionally rare to get a June MH in the gulf.. the only one I can think of is Audrey 57.
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#52 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun May 14, 2006 8:57 am

How would it kill off the carribean's SST's?...iim not buying it
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#53 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 am

Ok who needs rain? I will see if we can trainsport some of this rain we are getting here in Maine to who ever needs it! lol We now have 8.56 inches of rain so far for the month. Our average rain fall for the month of may is 3.82 inches! And they are forcasting more rain every day this week! :( at this rate we will be up over 10 inches or more by the end of the month!
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#54 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun May 14, 2006 9:35 am

CHRISTY wrote:RAINFALL IS ON THE WAY FOR SOUTHFLORIDA!

000
FXUS62 KMFL 140834
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
434 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

...MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS ON THE HORIZON...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTROL SOUTH FLORIDA
WEATHER TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...AND WITH SUBSIDENCE AND LOW ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN
PLACE (PWAT SHY OF AN INCH ACCORDING TO GPS MET DATA)...EXPECT FULL
SUNSHINE ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S
INTERIOR...BUT SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS WILL HOLD TEMPS IN
THE 80S THERE. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE TRANQUIL AS
WELL...BEFORE THINGS CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY THEREAFTER.

ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
BROAD CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL ACT TO PUSH A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FL. MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA ON DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING DRAMATICALLY FROM AROUND ONE INCH MONDAY MORNING
TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY MON NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY COULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
THUS...INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

GFS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
FL MONDAY NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW RATHER HIGH SHEAR VALUES IN A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA MON NIGHT...SO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD
BET...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SHOULD
THIS SCENARIO PLAY OUT. THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
TUESDAY...STALLING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS FLOW
BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DEEP WITH A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...SUPPORTING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCALLY ON TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TIMING
IS UNCERTAIN.


You know before the rain go through South Florida, it has to go through Central Florida first. :wink: So I'm getting rain too.
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CHRISTY

#55 Postby CHRISTY » Sun May 14, 2006 4:21 pm

Guys get ready for some nasty weather in South Florida!

ImageImageImageImageImageImageImage

000
FXUS62 KMFL 141848
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
248 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOW SITUATED OVER THE ATLANTIC
TO OUR EAST. SEABREEZES ACTIVE ON BOTH COASTS WITH SUNNY SKIES.
ENJOY NOW WILL IT LASTS BECAUSE CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE BROAD CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTHEAST WILL ACT TO PUSH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
FL. TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING
DRAMATICALLY FROM AROUND ONE INCH MONDAY MORNING TO NEAR 2 INCHES
BY MON NIGHT AND REMAINING HIGH BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY COULD ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION. THUS...INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

GFS MODEL KEEPS PLACING WEAK SURFACE LOWS IN DIFFERENT PLACES FROM
RUN TO RUN. CURRENT GFS RUN DEVELOPS A FEW WEAK LOWS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE GULF AND EAST OF DAYTONA MONDAY NIGHT AND MERGES
INTO ONE WELL EAST OF DAYTONA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW FORMS
ON THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING AND CROSSES SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND THEN WILL DRAG THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH CLEARING AND DRYING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE
SOME STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SEVERE MONDAY
EVENING WITH RATHER HIGH HELICITY, GOOD SHEAR AND REASONABLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. ANOTHER GOOD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
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#56 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun May 14, 2006 4:23 pm

Sweet cause we need it.
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CHRISTY

#57 Postby CHRISTY » Sun May 14, 2006 11:09 pm

Get ready the rain is coming!

000
FXUS62 KMFL 150111
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
911 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

.UPDATE...AN ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPED ALONG THE W CST C BRZ EARLY
IN THE EVENING BUT HAS NOW VANISHED. NO OTHER SHRA ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS JUST BARELY OVER A
HALF INCH PWAT.THE BIG CHANGE COMES ON MONDAY AS THE GFS/NAM BOTH
SHOW DRAMATIC INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
. BUT UNTIL THEN ENJOY THE CLOUD FREE EVENING.
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#58 Postby Aquawind » Mon May 15, 2006 7:03 am

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#59 Postby gatorcane » Mon May 15, 2006 7:24 am

:sleeping:
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#60 Postby jdray » Mon May 15, 2006 9:57 am

http://www.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/KBDI/

Drought Index still creeping back up.

Code: Select all

   MEAN   CHANGE      (MIN/MAX)   COUNTY
1     506       6      ( 245 / 633)   ALACHUA
2     462       7      ( 256 / 589)   BAKER
3     481       8      ( 268 / 657)   BAY
4     503       6      ( 224 / 630)   BRADFORD
5     552       4      ( 227 / 707)   BREVARD
6     675       2      ( 190 / 751)   BROWARD
7     431       9      ( 273 / 539)   CALHOUN
8     614       3      ( 244 / 702)   CHARLOTTE
9     545       5      ( 139 / 642)   CITRUS
10     558       4      ( 252 / 632)   CLAY
11     647       2      ( 113 / 748)   COLLIER
12     473       7      ( 286 / 590)   COLUMBIA
13     624       3      ( 132 / 736)   DADE
14     619       3      ( 197 / 701)   DESOTO
15     415       9      ( 129 / 556)   DIXIE
16     420       7      ( 146 / 578)   DUVAL
17     428       9      ( 176 / 604)   ESCAMBIA
18     571       3      ( 298 / 664)   FLAGLER
19     394      11      ( 136 / 552)   FRANKLIN
20     399      10      ( 228 / 602)   GADSDEN
21     488       7      ( 259 / 570)   GILCHRIST
22     616       3      ( 189 / 691)   GLADES
23     457       9      ( 248 / 603)   GULF
24     514       7      ( 379 / 593)   HAMILTON
25     574       4      (  94 / 678)   HARDEE
26     652       2      ( 336 / 746)   HENDRY
27     562       4      ( 160 / 663)   HERNANDO
28     613       3      ( 122 / 698)   HIGHLANDS
29     529       5      (  80 / 667)   HILLSBOROUGH
30     368      10      ( 179 / 523)   HOLMES
31     555       4      ( 160 / 723)   INDIAN_RIVER
32     419       9      ( 152 / 553)   JACKSON
33     428      10      ( 181 / 572)   JEFFERSON
34     454       8      ( 345 / 558)   LAFAYETTE
35     521       5      ( 124 / 648)   LAKE
36     665       2      (  76 / 732)   LEE
37     386      11      (  82 / 505)   LEON
38     494       7      ( 231 / 644)   LEVY
39     411      10      ( 192 / 552)   LIBERTY
40     461       8      ( 193 / 662)   MADISON
41     580       4      ( 177 / 662)   MANATEE
42     556       4      ( 286 / 639)   MARION
43     615       3      ( 215 / 735)   MARTIN
44     604       3      (  15 / 719)   MONROE
45     400       4      (  90 / 589)   NASSAU
46     437      10      ( 132 / 632)   OKALOOSA
47     596       3      ( 143 / 698)   OKEECHOBEE
48     534       5      (  43 / 670)   ORANGE
49     545       4      (  45 / 674)   OSCEOLA
50     623       3      ( 231 / 755)   PALM_BEACH
51     581       4      ( 238 / 669)   PASCO
52     592       4      ( 414 / 682)   PINELLAS
53     560       4      ( 181 / 674)   POLK
54     569       3      ( 245 / 657)   PUTNAM
55     564       5      ( 255 / 673)   ST_JOHNS
56     594       3      ( 218 / 706)   ST_LUCIE
57     369      11      (  73 / 570)   SANTA_ROSA
58     602       3      ( 230 / 676)   SARASOTA
59     538       4      ( 298 / 666)   SEMINOLE
60     548       5      (  47 / 667)   SUMTER
61     441       9      ( 256 / 575)   SUWANNEE
62     346      11      (  71 / 596)   TAYLOR
63     437       8      ( 147 / 589)   UNION
64     578       3      ( 190 / 651)   VOLUSIA
65     420      10      ( 232 / 525)   WAKULLA
66     444       9      ( 165 / 634)   WALTON
67     426       9      ( 106 / 572)   WASHINGTON
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