Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

[HURAKAN]

[SouthFloridawx]

http://tinyurl.com/ryg77

Topography of the area that could be affected soon.

[stormtruth]

I think I can guarantee an EWRC within the next 24 hours based upon the shape of the rainbands... very similar to those of Rita, which I have been doing research on and presented at Monterrey

This will not maintain super status until landfall, <1% chance

Yesterday you mentioned the possibility of it weakening to a TS before landfall. Is that still likely or is that very unlikely now that it is stronger? Will this be a situation where it weakens but expands like some of the Gulf coast storms did in 2005 and 2006? Thanks for your insights.

[SouthFloridawx]

So what is the official intesity for this storm?

[Normandy]

Wow.
Well so much for this maxing out at a 3/4.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

All data appears to support this as 130 to 140 knots at this moment.

[Normandy]

How big is this typhoon in regard to wind maxima??? Its outflow would nearly cover australia.

[whereverwx]

It's really starting to look better and improve.

[SouthFloridawx]

All data appears to support this as 130 to 140 knots at this moment.

Thanks Matt. It will be interesting to see the next advisory after the storm finishes the ERC. These models were intialized before the lastest intensity burst. I will also be interested to see what these models forecast on the next run.

[milankovitch]

I think I can guarantee an EWRC within the next 24 hours based upon the shape of the rainbands... very similar to those of Rita, which I have been doing research on and presented at Monterrey

This will not maintain super status until landfall, <1% chance

Could you elaborate on how the rainbands make you think that there will be an EWRC in 24hrs? I don't really see a moat yet on the 85ghz. Thanks!

[Scorpion]

good news for hong kong...the latest forecast has it a cat 2 over hong kong in 3 days instead of a cat 4 like before

A cat-2 is still strong enough to cause Katrina-like damage and that forecast could change over time so wait and see.

Are you kidding? Cat 1-2 winds in Hong Kong would probably yield minimal damage. They have excellent building codes.

[Windspeed]

Hong Kong is relatively hurricane-resistant. It's basically built on mountains so flooding and surge are very manageable, and it's wealthy so most buildings will be well-built. The problem would be all that highrise glass in a major wind event, but that's best handled with local evac to safer structures. Chanchu would be most dangerous if it veered left and put its right front quadrant up the Pearl River delta, which is densely inhabited and much more susceptible to flooding.

In addition to HK's size, the comparatively poor development in its hinterland - which is China, remember, HK's just a citystate - makes a general evac of HK essentially impossible.

If this typhoon makes landfall as a 3-4 storm placing the largest density of Hong Kong in the eastern quadrant of the eye, there will be a great deal of devastation. This city can be hurricane-resistant depending on motion of the eye; however, a major hurricane event can be devastating if the storm does hit from the SSW. The same topography that protects southerly and northerly flow over the harbor channels and intensifies easterly and westerly winds. High wind and high-rise buildings do not mix. Easterly and southeasterly winds can also cause water to pile up in the harbor and surge against the shoreline, though hopefully this will be at minimum.

The topography of southern China and Hong Kong is oriented primarily east-west. A range of hills not more than 3,280 ft (1,000 m) high runs east to west across the Kowloon Peninsula. Hills of approximately 1,640 ft (500 m) exist in similar orientation on Hong Kong Island. Easterly winds are channeled and accelerated between the two more-or-less parallel east-west oriented ranges of hills. The result can be strong easterly wind conditions in Hong Kong Harbor whenever a tropical cyclones approaches.



The bulk of Hong Kong's major metropolitan area rests on a large alluvial fan composed volcanic sediments. This makes up a narrow stretch of flat land between the igneous mountains and sea that does extends beyond the harbor. Surge can build into this harbor if winds are prodominately southeasterly and very strong. A storm moving in from SSW would force southeasterly winds into the harbor for a substantial amount of time before landfall.

Another factor will be the high terrain behind the metropolitan area. If the eyewall makes landfall against the high rise in vertical elevation, rainfall rates will border on extreme. There will likely be heavy flooding from rainfall alone even if surge is minimal. Make no mistake, a direct hit by this storm at Cat 3-4 would be devastating to Hong Kong.

[cycloneye]

SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 025
WTPN31 PGTW 142100
1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 13.8N 115.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 115.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.9N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.0N 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.7N 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.7N 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.9N 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 26.6N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 115.3E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 42 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

130 kts

[cycloneye]

WTPQ20 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 13.8N 115.5E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 260NM
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 15.9N 114.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 095KT
48HF 161800UTC 19.5N 114.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
72HF 171800UTC 23.3N 115.9E 290NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT

JMA has it at 85kts different from JTWC which has it at 130kts.

[Trugunzn]

[SouthFloridawx]

This track would bring the northeast quad of the destructive core right over hong kong.

[Brandon007]

the 48 hour forcast(approx. landfall time) still shows sustained winds of 135 knots which is around 155mph correct? so what is this talk of cat 1-2? 155mph would be cat 5 right?

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm really mad at the JMA. They make this system look weaker than it is. They are misleading Hong Kong in thinking this system won't be so strong. I mean you have to admit this system has stronger winds that 100 mph.

[whereverwx]

Here are the latest set of images:

[JonathanBelles]

isn't it time to change the title of the thread?