Invest 90E in the Eastern Pacific

Jim Cantore · #41 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sun May 14, 2006 8:16 pm

looking at these new images, I say it goes bye bye :cheesy:

#42 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun May 14, 2006 8:18 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:looking at these new images, I say it goes bye bye

I expect tomorrow another blob of convection, but the system continues to be attached to the ITCZ. It needs to seperate from the ITCZ for anything to happen.

Jim Cantore · #43 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sun May 14, 2006 8:21 pm

This has a chance if it gets out of the sheer, thats holding it back, without it, its got a shot.

spinfan4eva · #44 Postby **spinfan4eva** » Sun May 14, 2006 8:23 pm

CHRISTY wrote:Here's an IR loop on our new INVEST!

Oh, so thats why the page took so long to load for me, thanks! :roll:

#45 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun May 14, 2006 8:42 pm

(This is my opinion only)

If it breaks the ITCZ, it should become Aletta. If not, it doesn't have a chance at doing anything.

Chance of becoming TD1-E: 25%. Chance of becoming Aletta: 20%.

HurricaneHunter914 · #46 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sun May 14, 2006 10:26 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif

It's been a long time since this image has been posted. Looks like no tropical development expected is the next few days or so.

#47 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun May 14, 2006 11:43 pm

Computer models:

CMC - doesn't develop it

GFDL - not available

GFS - develops it into a tropical storm and takes it towards southern Mexico

NOGAPS - doesn't develop it

UKM - develops a weak blob (depression?) but doesn't go beyond that

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Ivan14 · #48 Postby **Ivan14** » Mon May 15, 2006 1:17 am

So it looks as if the models are split on if this one is going to develop.

Cape Verde · #49 Postby **Cape Verde** » Mon May 15, 2006 7:50 am

I sure hope it doesn't develop. In fact, I want it to go away entirely.

I'm headed to Nicaragua for a week starting tomorrow.

Melissa · #50 Postby **Melissa** » Mon May 15, 2006 8:42 am

benny wrote:
StormScanWx wrote:Could someone give me a good definition of INVEST, because I think I know what it is, but I'm not positive.

An area of disturbed weather that a weather forecast agency thinks has a chance of tropical development. They usually update the positions/intensities at least twice a day. The US Navy opens most of them I think, save the Atlantic and EastPac where they defer to TPC most of the time.

I was going to ask that same question. Thank you so much for answering it!

#51 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon May 15, 2006 2:49 pm

Models now in agreement: no development.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #52 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon May 15, 2006 2:53 pm

I wish it would develop but the chances look very small.

#53 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon May 15, 2006 3:08 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I wish it would develop but the chances look very small.

Agreed; the development window just closed.

HurricaneHunter914 · #54 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon May 15, 2006 3:55 pm

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151629
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT MON MAY 15 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

The NHC still shows some hope for it though.

#55 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon May 15, 2006 5:46 pm

It's nice to see a TWO from the national hurricane center.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #56 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon May 15, 2006 6:33 pm

Looks like the nhc has final woke up. :ggreen:

Invest 90E in the Eastern Pacific

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