2006 Official Storm2k Numbers Statistical Analysis - Bumped

[gatorcane]

I did some statistical analysis on the storm2k numbers poll and thought it would be nice to have a graphical representation and common binomial distribution statistics such as mean, median, standard deviation, etc.

I will keep this link updated accordingly over the next few weeks until all numbers are final. Any questions or other types of statistics and/or graphics you would like me to add, let me know

[drezee]

19TC 10.5H 5.3MH

I wonder how close the Storm2k Collective mind will be....

[gatorcane]

I wonder also. In addition, each member can compare his/her numbers with the mean.

For example, I am below the mean by several storms in each of the 3 categories.

The MAX numbers are

30/17/11

[gatorcane]

You can also see a high variance and standard deviation for the total storms indicating that we are in relatively high disagreement for the total # of storms

Moderators:
Can we make this a sticky and/or merge it into the Numbers Poll by June 1st for quick reference?

[CrazyC83]

If last year wasn't so bad, I don't think you'd see too many people (if anyone) predicting 20 or more storms, and certainly not 30 storms. It's clear that there is considerable consensus for another terrible year, since the conditions right now are pretty much the same as 2005.

Remember, if we reach 30, the last storm (if they are all named) would be Tropical Storm Iota.

[gatorcane]

true I think that that the storm2k forecasted numbers avgs could happen though.

[gatorcane]

I will update this soon to see what storm2k thinks is going to happen

[benny]

I wonder also. In addition, each member can compare his/her numbers with the mean.

For example, I am below the mean by several storms in each of the 3 categories.

The MAX numbers are

30/17/11

11 major hurricanes eh? nice! that would make the WPac proud.. I think they only average 9 or so.

[Jim Cantore]

Just to think, one year ago you'd be called an idiot for predicting 20 named storms

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow...11 major storms would be scary, because in the setup we will likely be in...more than 4 of those would likely strike the U.S....with a worst case scenario being all 11. COULD YOU IMAGINE! 11 Cat. 3+ U.S. landfalls in one season!? We would be devastated.

[benny]

Just to think, one year ago you'd be called an idiot for predicting 20 named storms

Predicting near the record is bold.. predicting 40% above the record.. that's crazy! (yes I realize about the number of TS last year, we could have missed a few storms over the open Atlantic in the old days.. but a few extra major hurricanes.. not as likely) Especially w/o a darn good reason (last year had all the signs for super active).. this one.. still need a lot of warming in the Tropical Atlc and favorable atmospheric conditions.

[gatorcane]

Here is an update folks. Includes the new entries and modified entries since last Fri. May 5th at 12:30pm EST.

Mean values:
19.14184397 / 10.61702128 / 5.368794326

[CrazyC83]

Wow...11 major storms would be scary, because in the setup we will likely be in...more than 4 of those would likely strike the U.S....with a worst case scenario being all 11. COULD YOU IMAGINE! 11 Cat. 3+ U.S. landfalls in one season!? We would be devastated.

The entire eastern and southern US would be devastated. We'd all be moving to the northern Plains at that rate...that would be an average of one major hurricane every 12-14 days from July to October.

If there were 11 major hurricanes, I'd say 6 would make a major US landfall, 2 would make major landfalls elsewhere (only), and 3 would be fish-spinners or minor landfalling storms.

Of last year's majors, 4 were major US storms, 2 were major storms elsewhere and one was (arguably) a fish-spinner.

*Major landfall = enough to do significant damage, not necessarily Category 3 or higher. Minor landfall = did moderate damage or less.

[CrazyC83]

*bump*

[Audrey2Katrina]

Just think if we had a season like 2005 !!!!!!!

And all 28 were MAJORS!!!!!!

And ALL of 'em hit the U.S. !!!!!!!!



A2K

[gatorcane]

Alright folks I'm resurrecting this thread from way back at the beginning of the season....

check out the dates on this thread and where most of us thought we would get....

Notice the mean of 19 storms - I think we'll fall way short of this

[KWT]

Very intresting thread but we are going to be well short of that 19 storms!
So far the average I've come out with is 12.675 storms, which rounded up is 13 storms that the people who revised so far expects.