MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0877
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0215 AM CDT MON MAY 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FLORIDA...SRN GEORGIA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 150715Z - 150915Z
   
   A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE
   POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.
   
   PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE NEAR 25-30 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA APPEARS TO BE
   FOCUS FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND.  ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN MOIST
   ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
   1000-2000 J/KG...AND MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR APPEARS
   TO CONTRIBUTING TO EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS.  SURFACE BASED
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS CONFINED TO WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
   COASTAL AREAS...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY ELEVATED ABOVE AT LEAST A
   SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA/
   SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
   
   LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS
   CONVECTIVE BAND SHIFTS ONLY VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD.  INCREASING
   MID/UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND
   SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF OHIO VALLEY CLOSED MAY PROVIDE SOME RISK FOR
   GROWING CLUSTER OF STORMS EAST OF TALLAHASSEE TOWARD 12Z...BUT THIS
   POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW/UNCERTAIN AT THE PRESENT TIME.  HOWEVER
   ...ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS COULD STILL BRIEFLY PRODUCE MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL...PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...MOB...
   
   30408698 30518587 31078440 31878229 31768155 31108139
   30488161 29978270 29518442 29498511 29428629 29688750
   29988761

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0878
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1202 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 151702Z - 151830Z
   
   VSBL SATL CONTINUES TO SHOW A GROWING CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS NRN FL
   WITH TSTMS INITIATING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE GA/FL
   BORDER AREA.  AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY
   UNSTABLE OWING TO STRONG HEATING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7
   DEGREES C PER KM.  TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS
   TAIL-END OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
   0-6KM SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   29868358 30448319 30658155 29148097 28678289

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0879
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1244 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC AND EXTREME SERN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 151744Z - 151915Z
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NC AND
   SERN VA THROUGH MID-AFTN.  A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
   WINDS...HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTN
   FOR PARTS OF ERN NC.
   
   RECENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BECOME
   CONCENTRATED ACROSS ERN NC...SUPPORTING THE RUC TRENDS OF TRACKING
   THE SFC LOW FROM OVER UPSTATE SC INTO ERN NC BY LATE AFTN.
   RESULTANT INCREASE IN SFC CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL
   LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM INITIATION SHORTLY.  AIR MASS IS NOT
   TERRIBLY UNSTABLE OWING TO MORNING CLOUD COVER...BUT AS AN UPSTREAM
   MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX TRANSLATES NEWD...ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT DEEP
   MOIST CONVECTION.
   
   VERTICAL SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
   ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WITH
   EMBEDDED BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND MOVE ENEWD INTO SERN VA AND
   THE OUTER BANKS OF NC BY EVENING.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY THREAT...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT 0-1KM SHEAR
   /AROUND 150-170 M2/S2/ FOR THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
   
   34677883 35727854 36787769 37037646 36057551 35027558
   33957668 33957821

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0880
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0113 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 151813Z - 151945Z
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS ALONG THE SERN COAST OF FL. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT HAS SHOWN A LARGE MOISTURE FLUX
   INCREASE ACROSS SRN FL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. TSTMS HAVE
   DEVELOPED ALONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE PAST HOUR.
   MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF
   2000 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 40
   KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS.  STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
   LACKING IN MIAMI VAD PROFILER...LOCALIZED INTERACTIONS BETWEEN
   STORMS AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE AN ISOLATED
   THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...
   
   25698085 26368101 26958093 27278028 26957998 26197995
   25458016 25318078

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0881
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL AND EXTREME SERN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 358...
   
   VALID 152041Z - 152215Z
   
   A SHORT TERM THREAT FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...GUSTY
   WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES WILL EXIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   
   BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE VEERED ACROSS NRN FL AS A MID-LEVEL
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVED TOWARD THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTN. THUS...MASS
   CONVERGENCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER.  LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES HAS BEEN SUPPORTING CONTINUED UPDRAFT GROWTH OVER NERN
   PARTS OF NRN FL AND EXTREME SERN GA.
   
   THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...TSTM PROBABILITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   DECREASE AS MOST SUPPORT TRANSLATES OFFSHORE.  UNTIL THEN...50+
   0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  GIVEN STEEP LAPSE
   RATES ALOFT...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT AN ISOLD
   BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE ALONG BOUNDARIES.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...JAX...
   
   29258145 29938202 30518286 31238169 31088119 29528060

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0882
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0618 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC THROUGH ERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 359...
   
   VALID 152318Z - 160045Z
   
   THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
   PERSIST ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
   INTENSITY.
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF COLD
   FRONT ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD ADVANCING UPPER JET. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP
   LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OF 50-60 KT ENHANCED BY THE MID LEVEL JET WILL
   SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS. COLD MID LEVEL
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OF -16C TO -17C AND POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT
   ROTATION MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS.
   HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL...AND A SLOW DECREASE IN OVERALL
   INTENSITIES IS EXPECTED AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
   
   33507952 34197963 35897729 36137556 35367545 33797866

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0883
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0957 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH S FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 160257Z - 160500Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INLAND INTO THE S CNTRL AND S FL PENINSULA
   NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND AND HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
   WW.
   
   LONG LIVED MCS OVER THE ERN GULF ABOUT 35 MILES OFFSHORE OF THE SRN
   FL PENINSULA CONTINUES EWD AT AROUND 30-35 KT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
   BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND NEAR 04Z. AT THE SURFACE A PRE-EXISTING
   BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR PALM BEACH SWWD THROUGH THE EVERGLADES.
   THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN PARTIALLY REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
   FROM PREVIOUS STORMS. SE OF THIS BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
   ENHANCED BY SELY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE VEERING TO SSWLY AROUND 1 KM.
   W OF THE BOUNDARY LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MORE LIMITED...BUT DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY
   MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
   AND MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
   THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.
   HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN THE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW SE OF THE SURFACE
   BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP S FL.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...
   
   25258014 24768123 26658234 27368090 26977999

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0884
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 AM CDT TUE MAY 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 360...
   
   VALID 160842Z - 161015Z
   
   STRONGER CONVECTION IS SHIFTING EWD/OFFSHORE OVER SRN FL.
   
   RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IN ONGOING
   CONVECTION...WITH STRONGEST STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY -- MOVING OFF THE SERN COAST OF FL ATTM. 
   
   AIRMASS HAS BEEN STABILIZED CONSIDERABLY IN THE WAKE OF THESE
   STORMS...AND THUS EXPECT ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH NEWLY-DEVELOPING
   CONVECTION OFF THE SWRN FL COAST TO REMAIN MINIMAL.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...
   
   26887986 24998000 24498147 25398085 26038042 26768029

[jusforsean]

So does that mean we wont be getting severe storms again tonight?

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0885
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN WI...NRN IL AND NWRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 171700Z - 171830Z
   
   TSTMS WILL INCREASE OVER SRN/ERN WI...NRN IL AND NWRN IND THROUGH
   THE AFTN.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A WW
   WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
   
   POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD INTO WI AT
   MID-DAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KGRB
   TO KEAU...THEN WWD INTO NWRN IA.  MID-LEVEL CONVECTION WAS QUICKLY
   MOVING AWAY FROM THE FRONT AND STRONGEST COOLING ALOFT...ALLOWING
   THE AIR MASS TO BECOME UNSTABLE ACROSS CNTRL WI.  SFC DEW POINTS IN
   THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BENEATH THE STEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC
   LAPSE RATES WERE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES APPROACHING 750 J/KG.
   TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN WI ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
   THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT/COOLING SPREADS SWD. 
   
   VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES...THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP INTO SHORT LINE
   SEGMENTS QUICKLY.  LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT
   TODAY OWING TO COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MAGNITUDE OF THE BULK
   SHEAR. ALSO...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AT THE SFC COMBINED WITH
   INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...
   
   41338621 40798788 41258995 43159053 44459025 44768827
   43968673

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0886
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0156 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL IL...CNTRL/NRN IND AND NWRN/WCNTRL OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 171856Z - 172030Z
   
   TSTMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS ECNTRL IL EWD INTO NWRN/WCNTRL OH THROUGH
   THE AFTN.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY POSE SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREATS.
   
   VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWS LINES OF CU BEGINNING TO SPROUT INTO CBS
   ACROSS ECNTRL IL NEWD INTO NRN IND...THEN NEWD INTO CNTRL LWR MI.
   CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE FAVORING WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES
   AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING VORT MAX OVER ERN WI. INCREASING LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY ENCOURAGE DEEPER CIRCULATIONS TO FORM AND
   RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TSTM INITIATION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS
   OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INFLUX OF MID 50S SFC DEW POINTS
   BENEATH COOLING MID-LEVELS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SBCAPES JUST OVER 1000
   J/KG. 
   
   AS THE 70 KT H5 JET AXIS DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE REGION...VERTICAL
   SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS /POSSIBLE
   SUPERCELLS/.  ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP INTO SHORT LINE
   SEGMENTS AND MOVE TOWARD WCNTRL/NWRN OH LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE.
   STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS. AS
   SUCH...A WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED...PARTICULARLY AS THE COLDER
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT SPREAD SEWD.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
   
   40798828 41718332 41058330 40528353 39638482 39478743

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0887
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0539 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI/MUCH OF NRN-CENTRAL IL/CENTRAL-NRN
   IND/NWRN-CENTRAL OH/PARTS OF SRN-SERN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 361...362...
   
   VALID 172239Z - 180015Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS VALID PARTS OF WW/S
   361 AND 362.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STRONGEST STORM WITHIN WW 361 WAS LOCATED
   OVER NERN IL /10 NW CGX/...WITH A LARGE AREA OF AIR MASS
   STABILIZATION HAVING OCCURRED EWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI WHERE STORMS
   HAVE CONTINUED WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE ALSO
   LOCATED MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF IL/IND WITHIN WW 362.
   
   COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   NOW LOCATED OVER SERN WI WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN HAIL PRODUCTION
   WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.  70 KT NWLY MID LEVEL JET CURRENTLY
   SPREADING INTO ERN IA/NWRN IL IS RESULTING IN 55 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   OVER NRN/CENTRAL IL AND NEAR 35 KT INTO IND FOR ADDITIONAL STORM
   ORGANIZATION...UNTIL THE AIR MASS UNDERGOES STABILIZATION WITH THE
   LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA INDICATED MLCAPE
   AOB 500 J/KG SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   BE ISOLATED.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...
   
   39238907 39919004 41389035 43159046 43198919 43158771
   43258642 42848562 42688510 42178477 42088409 43928459
   44098437 44058252 42728236 41978270 41608188 39778209
   39308551

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0888
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0811 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-SRN IL/CENTRAL-SRN IND/WRN-CENTRAL OH/FAR
   NRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 362...
   
   VALID 180111Z - 180215Z
   
   WW 362 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED IN
   ADVANCE OF A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM SRN IA INTO
   CENTRAL PARTS OF IL/IND AND NW OH.  LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS
   CONTINUED TO STABILIZE THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
   VALLEY WHICH SUGGESTS OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   DIMINISH WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING. 
   
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
   WILL REMAIN STRONGEST ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY INCLUDING AREAS
   SOUTH OF WW 362 THIS EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE
   THE DECREASING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.  THUS...A FEW STRONG STORMS
   WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SRN IL/IND/OH AND NRN KY...BUT ANY
   ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT AN ADDITIONAL
   WW.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
   
   40558989 41198971 41058834 41248741 41348708 40838652
   40498569 40468495 40888393 41768378 41768210 39658199
   38428237 38558508 37758645 37638804 37228912 37938992
   39589064

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0889
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0933 AM CDT THU MAY 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...IN...OH...KY...WV...PA
   
   CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
   
   VALID 181433Z - 181600Z
   
   PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY WILL BE INCLUDED IN A SLGT RISK IN
   THE NEXT SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
   
   TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF IND/OH AHEAD OF
   SECONDARY VORTICITY CENTER ROTATING AROUND DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER MI.
   FORCING FOR ASCENT ON CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF STRONG MID LEVEL WIND
   MAX...COUPLED WITH WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY...SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY. RECENT SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING THAT CLUSTERS
   OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS SHOULD SPREAD SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF IND/OH...
   NRN/ERN KY...AND WV...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT FROM THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE HAIL...ALTHOUGH
   STRONGER WIND GUSTS COULD EVOLVE IF STORMS CONGEAL INTO A SMALL MCS
   AND PROMOTE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE
   SURFACE.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...
   
   39737951 38588120 37688379 37688643 38778700 40438712
   40938633 40858465 40688288 41028058

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0890
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1218 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA...ERN NY...MA/VT/NH...SWRN ME
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 181718Z - 181945Z
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS AND
   PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL. GREATER THREAT MAY BE
   FROM ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING CONVECTION
   CROSSING RECENTLY FLOODED AREAS.
   
   MODEST HEATING ACROSS WARM SECTOR...FROM NERN PA ACROSS THE HUDSON
   AND CT RIVER VALLEYS...WAS CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK
   DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING GRADUALLY EAST FROM WRN
   NY/PA. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATED MLCAPE CLIMBING TO ABOUT 300
   J/KG ACROSS THE REGION AND MORNING ALBANY SOUNDING ADJUSTED FOR
   ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS YIELDS MLCAPE OF
   ABOUT 900 J/KG. REGION IS BENEATH BROADLY DIFFLUENT...BUT WEAK...MID
   LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN REMNANT CLOSED LOW NEAR GULF OF ST.
   LAWRENCE...AND STRONGER/LARGER DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OVER GREAT LAKES
   REGION. ISOLATED STORMS MAY FIRST FORM ACROSS THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN...WITH MORE FOCUSED CONVECTION POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
   FRONT...MOVING EAST INTO ERN NY THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES... BUT GENERALLY LIMITED
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SHOULD RESULT IN MULTICELL STORMS WITH SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/WIND. OVERALL SCENARIO APPEARS TO SUPPORT
   INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF WEAKLY ORGANIZED AND SLOW MOVING
   DEEP CONVECTION PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INTO THE EVENING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...
   
   42357125 42087295 41837398 41557470 41147501 40887532
   40807567 40987590 42097607 42927616 43537602 43687603
   44037597 44487542 44787466 44127157 43977007

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0891
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0137 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...IN...OH...KY...WV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363...
   
   VALID 181837Z - 182030Z
   
   CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS WRN/NRN
   PORTIONS OF WW 363. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT BENEATH LEFT
   EXIT REGION OF 70-80KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX...WAS DRIVING WIDESPREAD
   LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. RESULTING
   LARGE COLD POOL FROM COMPLEX OF STORMS FROM NWRN OH TO SERN IND HAS
   RESULTED IN SHARP BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FORMING ACROSS THESE AREAS.
   ADDITIONAL STORMS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAVE PRODUCED A NUMBER OF
   WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM SRN OH TO NRN KY. BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
   AND INCREASINGLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF NUMEROUS
   STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MORE INTENSE
   UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BOTH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...
   
   38638572 39728530 40178064 39678059 39677965 38218073
   37208241 37448366 37488541 37878589

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0892
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...OR...ID...NV...EXTREME SERN WA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 181924Z - 182130Z
   
   TSTMS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   INTERIOR NORTHWEST. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS
   AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. OTHER THAN TERRAIN AND WEAK MID
   LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO SERN ORE/SWRN ID ATTM...LIMITED FOCUSING
   MECHANISMS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO DEFINE AN AREA WITH A MORE
   CONCENTRATED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
   
   HEATING BENEATH APEX OF MOIST MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL AGAIN FUEL
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE CASCADES TO THE BITTERROOTS THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. SITUATION APPEARS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY WHEN VIGOROUS
   HIGH-BASED STORMS FORMED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. SUBTLE
   DIFFERENCES TODAY INCLUDE SLIGHTLY GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND
   WEAK MCV TRACKING ACROSS SERN ORE ATTM. THESE FACTORS COULD
   CONTRIBUTE TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY.
   
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT PRIMARILY HIGH-BASED
   CONVECTION WITH BOTH A WIND AND ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. MID LEVEL FLOW
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS WEAK WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS AND
   SHOULD LEAD TO RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED STORMS FOCUSED ON TERRAIN
   FEATURES. HOWEVER...STORMS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE MCV MAY DRIFT
   ACROSS VERY STEEP SUB-CLOUD LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE SNAKE RIVER
   VALLEY OF ID...AND PARTS OF ERN ORE...ENHANCING WIND DAMAGE
   POTENTIAL OVER THESE AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING SWLY MID
   LEVEL FLOW BEGINNING TO EDGE EWD ACROSS WRN ORE...ON THE WRN
   PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...MAY RESULT IN GREATER
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR STORMS IN THIS AREA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
   GREATER THREAT FOR PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...OTX...PDT...MFR...PQR...
   
   43961202 41841462 42111810 42382278 44752244 45602008
   45901823 46551605 46801477 46681430

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0893
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0251 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL NC .. NRN SC .. EXTREME SRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 181951Z - 182145Z
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE
   PIEDMONT IN NC...SOUTHERN VA AND EASTERN TN WITHIN AN AXIS OF LOW
   LEVEL CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIGGING
   SOUTHEASTWARD FROM IN AND OH. MARGINAL CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR WILL
   SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE SURFACE WIND
   GUSTS WITH A FEW STORMS. THE FORCING WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AS
   THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED...HOWEVER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
   
   CURRENT RUC SHORT RANGE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES AROUND
   750 J/KG WITH A DEEP LAYER OF 40 KT WESTERLY WINDS FROM 850 TO 500MB
   OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING DO NOT
   INDICATE SIGNIFICANT STEEPENING OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DESPITE
   APPROACH OF MIDWEST TROUGH...SO SURFACE BASED CAPE IS UNLIKELY TO
   INCREASE MARKEDLY FROM CURRENT LEVELS. IN FACT THERE ARE INDICATIONS
   IN MODEL AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS THAT A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WILL
   CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THE INTENSITY OF CONVECTION.  SPC HAIL GUIDANCE
   INDICATES MAXIMUM SIZES AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN
   STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..SCHNEIDER.. 05/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...
   
   36937763 36597677 36147677 35637739 35227789 34957851
   34717898 34447994 34168089 33968177 34158236 34598307
   34988349 35558336 36158215 36518134 36738031 37017880

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0894
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0612 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363...
   
   VALID 182312Z - 190015Z
   
   WW 363 CAN BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME OF
   00Z...AS OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITIES
   WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM SRN KY EWD INTO WV...AND ESPECIALLY
   NOTED IS THE DECREASE IN REFLECTIVITIES IN THE UPSTREAM STORMS OVER
   CENTRAL OH TO FAR NRN KY WHICH ARE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE COLDER MID
   LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  THIS DIMINISHING TREND IS A REFLECTION OF THE
   DECREASE IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES
   AS A RESULT OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
   
   38398583 39138383 38868342 38288311 37568191 37178255
   36748403 36768563 37098584

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0895
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0719 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC/SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 190019Z - 190115Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
   AROUND 01Z.  GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT...
   A WW IS NOT WARRANTED.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
   CENTRAL SC NEWD INTO ERN NC.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
   REMAIN SURFACE BASED BEFORE ENCOUNTERING AND BECOMING UNDERCUT BY A
   COUPLE OF WWD MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHICH WERE NOW LOCATED
   15-30 MILES WEST OF THE COASTS OF NC/SC.  THUS THE AERIAL COVERAGE
   FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL EXTENDS 20-40 MILES EAST OF
   THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
   
   DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGING
   FROM 40-50 KT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITH DEEP
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
   BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
   
   33748115 34438073 34838001 35287883 35747808 36217738
   36177656 35407674 34417802 33737908 33207966 33038019
   33378078