Accuwx Issues Same Prediction Again

[MWatkins]

Hey this was at the top of my Yahoo News list otherwise I wouldn't have seen it. Accuwx is calling for 3 major hurricanes to his the US with the major threat being the Carolinas.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060515/sc_ ... weather_dc

After reading that article, it sounded very very familiar. I remembered reading that sometime last summer too. Interestingly, the same exact forecast and justification and analogs were used to support the same conclusion in July, 2005 about the same exact landfall areas. Read the article...it is EXACTLY the same once you take out the statments about the Gulf threat diminishing for August/Sept 05:

http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/so ... /57684.htm

I will keep any subsequent comments to myself...

MW

[paradoxsixnine]

I just read the same headline on Yahoo! news, thus my log-in here....
Geez-us....

[terstorm1012]

same here, read it on Yahoo, then immediately came here, wow, all had the same thought.

I also had something else to say but I'm just gonna keep it to myself (if you must know, you can PM me, though it's not that important.)

[Camille_2_Katrina]

the bad news is... he's usually right...
he does a great job on these long term forcasts...
he all but told us the day Katrina would hit... he made
the call in April of last year!

[drezee]

Still waiting on the Carolina hit from last year...oops I bet he counts Ophelia as a verification of his forecast...

How can it be spun….

Let’s try and be accuweather for a day…

He stated that the gulf would not be closed for business….Katrina, Wilma and Rita verified

He stated that the Carolinas was at risk…Ophelia brushed the outer banks = verification

Bastardi predicts high water temperatures in the Atlantic will focus storm activity on the Atlantic coastline…Wilma was off the atlantic coast after plowing through the gulf = verification

How is it that JB says that last year was just like 1954 and this year is too…they are not alike!!!

A forecast includes timing...everything verifies over time...

[CrazyC83]

I think that there will be activity and big time storms just about everywhere. Few coastal areas will escape major impact in 2006 from Panama to Newfoundland.

[JPmia]

"But he said Gulf coast residents shouldn't let their guard down.

"It's not like everything is shutting down in the Gulf," he said." (from the 2005 article).

Boy, what an understatement for 2005.

[CHRISTY]

I think the threat will be all along the EastCoast.

[jasons2k]

Maybe I'm missing something but I didn't see any analogs cited in the new article. Also the July 2005 numbers were 6/3 and for 2006 they are 5/3. I'd have to say those are different....

(edit - correct year )

[Portastorm]

I'll probably really regret this ... but here goes ...

You know, if Joe Bastardi and Accuweather were such the buffoons and morons that some of you paint them out to be, don't you think they'd be out of business by now? Truth is, they're not. They make money. And people pay money for a product that serves them well. You don't go to the grocery store and pay for something unless you have some sort of confidence that the product you're buying will serve your need, right? Same thing here. Good products sell, bad ones don't. You can grumble all you want, but that is the economic reality.

And if Joe was as bad as some suggest here, why is it that outside of Max Mayfield, he's the most visible and frequent guest on national news media? There's a reason. First of all, because he is bold and he does have personality. Secondly, because he is right more than he's wrong.

Regardless everyone has their opinion on this topic as we all painfully know. But sometimes I just have to scratch my head and wonder when I read some of the posts about Accuweather and JB. Ultimately the loudest opinion spoken is money and that opinion shows they must be doing something right.

[BayouVenteux]

FWIW, The 2006 Accuweather hurricane risk forecast graphic...

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/images/promos/hurr2006/hurrisk.jpg

[terstorm1012]

portastorm...noone was bashing (for a change) but good comment.

[x-y-no]

Portastorm:

I'm not going to entirely dispute your points, obviously Accuweather in general and JB in particular are far from incompetent.

Regarding why JB is such a popular guest - well he does know his subject quite well, but he's also a pretty good showman and his employer are aggressive and accomplished marketers. Nothing wrong with that of course.

That said, they pretty much brought most of this hostility on themselves with their efforts over the years to run down the reputation of the NWS and the NHC, and with their egregious attempt at legalized theft of public property (courtesy of soon to be ex-senator Santorum). It doesn't help that to the extent it has been possible to do independent verifications of their hurricane forecasts, theys significantly under-performed relative to NHC.

[CHRISTY]

WOW interesting !Lets see if this map verifys...my area is under HIGH so thats cause for concern.

[Portastorm]

Portastorm:

I'm not going to entirely dispute your points, obviously Accuweather in general and JB in particular are far from incompetent.

Regarding why JB is such a popular guest - well he does know his subject quite well, but he's also a pretty good showman and his employer are aggressive and accomplished marketers. Nothing wrong with that of course.

That said, they pretty much brought most of this hostility on themselves with their efforts over the years to run down the reputation of the NWS and the NHC, and with their egregious attempt at legalized theft of public property (courtesy of soon to be ex-senator Santorum). It doesn't help that to the extent it has been possible to do independent verifications of their hurricane forecasts, theys significantly under-performed relative to NHC.

Thanks for posting this and I will be the first to admit that I'm more ignorant on the Santorum bill issue and what you've mentioned. My knowledge is cursory at best on this stuff. I'm aware of the NHC criticism issue although I have seen (in my estimation) a softening of tone over the last 18 months in that regard.

Appreciate your comments and those of others ...

[CHRISTY]

another words they are saying most Storms this year will turn north away from Florida and head towards the northern states!How can you possible know what is going to be happening MONTHS from now with the ridge for example?I Think this is just to far out for anyone to predict!EVERYONE UP AND DOWN THE EASTCOAST SHOULD BE READY EQUALLY!

[Hurricaneman]

I agree with what he says, I also did notice that the cycle of el-nino, gulf then east coast cycle kind of like 1997, 1998 and 1999, which also worries me

[Stormcenter]

FWIW, The 2006 Accuweather hurricane risk forecast graphic...

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/images/promos/hurr2006/hurrisk.jpg

It's nice to see LA. and the area eastward along the GOM in the moderate to low risk. Those folks do need a break not saying that everyone else doesn't but that area has been hit hard recently.

[CHRISTY]

GUYS REMEMBER THESE ARE JUST PREDITIONS!KNOW ONE CAN TELL WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN THIS YEAR!WE DONT KNOW WERE THESE MONSTERS ARE GONNA STRIKE OR HOW MANY THERE WILL BE ALL WE CAN DO IS JUST BE READY FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE SEASON.

[Extremeweatherguy]

"Early in the season the Texas Gulf Coast faces the highest likelihood of a hurricane strike, possibly putting Gulf energy production in the line of fire," he said. "As early as July, and through much of the rest of the season, the highest level of risk shifts to the Carolinas."

^^From article^^

It would be scary if a Dennis-like storm (that didn't weaken) were to hit the Houston area in July.