Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

[stormtruth]

Hong Kong has issued a "standby warning" about Chanchu. I'll assume that's like our Hurricane Watches.
http://en.chinabroadcast.cn/811/2006/05/16/48@89384.htm

[senorpepr]

BTW... here's a link to official tropical cyclone information.

http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/

Remember... wind speeds are in 10-min averages, so multiple them by 1.14 to get a 1-min wind like the US uses.

I see that Hong Kong is in the path. I understand the windspeed thing, but this thing looks like a SS Cat 4 at best....135kt *1.14=154kt...*1.15=177mph.....no way. I've been wondering if they do something different to measure intestity over there.

I should point out that you don't convert JTWC wind speeds. They are already 1-min winds. It's the international agencies that you have to convert.

Some agencies give intensity only on satellite representation. Other incorperation some observations and other data into the process.

[Coredesat]

WWPN20 KNES 151535
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
MTSAT IRNIGHT WEST PACIFIC OCEAN
.
MAY 15 2006 1433Z
.
15.8N 115.0E T5.5/6.5/W1.0/12HRS CHANCHU (02W)
.
PAST POSITIONS....14.4N 115.4E 15/0233Z VIS/IRDAY
13.9N 115.4E 14/1433Z IRNIGHT
.
REMARKS....CLASSIFICATION USING EYE PATTERN SHOWS A DARK GRAY EYE
SURROUNDED BY LIGHT GREY FOR CF OF 5.0. EYE ADJUSTMENT BASED ON
BLACK SURROUNDING DARK GRAY ADDS 0 FOR FINAL-DT OF 5.0. MET AND
PT ARE 5.5. FINAL-T BASED ON MET AND PT.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM.
.

Yes, I know this is old - next Dvorak should come out in a couple hours.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/avn-l.jpg


Latest shows that it maybe trying to wrap?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Chanchu looks very sick. It'll probably strengthen a little but probably not to the monster she was.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

WTPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 16.2N 115.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 115.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.0N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 20.0N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.0N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 24.1N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 29.0N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 115.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.//
NNNN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Personally it is looking much better then it did this morning. With the cdo becoming round around the eye. Not a very big one but looking pretty nice.

[CHRISTY]

[senorpepr]

103KT officially...

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 152100UTC 16.4N 114.9E GOOD
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 162100UTC 20.8N 114.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
45HF 171800UTC 24.9N 116.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
69HF 181800UTC 30.4N 121.5E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT =

[CHRISTY]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow they remind the same...I feel that it has weaken to about 105 to 110 knots at this time. In they have not changed there forecast from the systems peak or in the last few days? I will leave it at that.

[Scorpion]

It looks like its falling apart.

[JonathanBelles]

11 pm advisory?

[HURAKAN]

11 pm advisory?

WTPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 16.9N 114.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 114.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.6N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 20.7N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.0N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 25.1N 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 30.3N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 114.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z
IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND
170300Z.//

ACCORDING TO THE JTWC, IT HAS INTENSIFIED TO 115 KNOTS.

[JonathanBelles]

115kts? that cant be right can it?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Opal 1995 did not have a eye when it was strong...In yes the system has become more organized with a more round and dense cdo. It could of restreghten back to 110 knots.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This thing is moving very slow.

[HURAKAN]

115kts? that cant be right can it?

We know that the JTWC is always the least conservative (some call it, the more exaggerate) agency, and that number is probably a little over what the real intensity is. Nevertheless, sometimes, and I always put Hurricane Michelle as an example, tropical cyclones presentation in the satellite images could deteriorate but their intensities remain the same.

[HURAKAN]

THE EYE HAS DISAPPEAR, NEVERTHELESS, THE CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE, SPECIALLY ON ITS SOUTH SIDE, REMAINS STRONG.

FURTHERMORE, THE POWERFULL WAVE (INVEST 92W) HAS GONE POOF!!!

[HurricaneBill]

Opal 1995 did not have a eye when it was strong...In yes the system has become more organized with a more round and dense cdo. It could of restreghten back to 110 knots.

Opal had an eye, it was just covered over with clouds.