SSD Dvorak analysts -removed- in the GOM? :-)

[Derecho]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
05/1745 UTC 25.4N 96.2W T1.0/1.0 90


I have to say it's one of the crappiest T 1.0 systems I've ever seen

I've stared at the GHCC zoom loop and I cannot fathom how there is any hint of a circ at the specified location.

Still horribly sheared and it just vomited out a big arc cloud to the north (which is an indication of serious problems for tropical development).

Note that the Satellite Services Division is NOT part of TPC. There's no NRL INVEST up either. There are two other US agencies that give T-numbers; TPC's are not public unless mentioned in a storm discussion, and the Air Force does them but with the demise of the FSU "big list" I don't know of anywhere to find them.


Thing will probably hit Texas as a Cat 3 in 4 days with my luck. I remember before Allison I think I was on vacation somewhere and wasn't posting to boards or chatting

[chadtm80]

Very interesting Derecho thanks for bringing that to our attention

[Guest]

Derecho - remember you called Allision one of the crappiest invest you ever saw - please don't say that here for this system!!!!

We don't need another Allision.

[chadtm80]

Conditions at 42020 as of
(2:00 pm CDT)
1900 GMT on 06/05/2003: Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 150 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 19.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 23.3 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.72 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.2 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.6 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.3 °F


Continuous Winds TIME
(CDT) WDIR WSPD
1:50 pm SSE ( 150 deg ) 20.0 kts
1:40 pm SE ( 145 deg ) 21.4 kts
1:30 pm SE ( 144 deg ) 19.8 kts
1:20 pm SE ( 136 deg ) 21.4 kts
1:10 pm SE ( 130 deg ) 22.0 kts
1:00 pm SE ( 129 deg ) 23.7 kts

[Lindaloo]

You are right about not needing another Allison ticka. Too much rain at once with that one.

[Derek Ortt]

I nearly fell out of my chair when I saw the T1.0/1.0. Any circ is mid level at best

[PTrackerLA]

It will be a huge rainmaker for some one along the gulf coast though, definately worth watching...

[MWatkins]

First...the TPC is concerned enough to spend a relatively lengthy paragraph on the system during the 10:30 TWO. From Beven no less.

Second...the curvature in the cloud pattern did warrant a 1.0 at the time...like it or not the Dvorak method is not all that subjective. Overlay a log-10 spiral on cloud pattern and determine the wrap. That's pretty much it. What the forecasters do with that information is their business.

Now...subjectively...there is little chance that anything tropical would survive very long...as was evidenced by the quick disruption of the pattern. But objectively...scientifically...you have to call them like you see them.

And that's what they did today.

MW

[/i]

[vbhoutex]

Thanks for the interesting discussion gentlemen. Both have good points. I for one have learned something from this. I must admit I was thrown for a loop when I found out they had given the system a Dvorak NO. since there is almost no way there will be tropical development from this system. but now I know why the no. was given. What a simple process!! I had no idea that is what they did.

[Derek Ortt]

There appeared to be more banding when this had most of its energy in the EPAC. Prehaps they were using an embedded center pattern in this case. There are 3 different Dvorak methods: banding, embedded center, and shear

[Lindaloo]

I do not know if this is the same system you all are talking about, but here on the MS gulf coast we are getting some much needed rain as I type.

[vbhoutex]

I do not know if this is the same system you all are talking about, but here on the MS gulf coast we are getting some much needed rain as I type.

Same system! Probably gonna get A LOT WETTER!!!!

[Lindaloo]

I hope so David. We sure could use it. Not a whole lot at one time though.

[MWatkins]

There appeared to be more banding when this had most of its energy in the EPAC. Prehaps they were using an embedded center pattern in this case. There are 3 different Dvorak methods: banding, embedded center, and shear

There are a few more than 3...although you may have been specific only for those that apply to previously unidentified tropical cyclones.

I doubt it would have been using the embedded center method...since that is a tool for estimating the strength/position of a cyclone where the center is obscured by a CCC (central Cloud Cover...different than a CDO). There was never a center to begin with...so it would be impossible to have a CCC or CDO or any specific convective canopy in the way.

99% of the time (if not 100%) initial diagnostic t-numbers are arrived at using the curved band method since this is usually the first indication that a TC may be developing. Hence...log 10 spiral...measure the curve to the band and blam..T-number.

The shear...embedded center...cdo and eye methods all apply to established systems...although the curved band method is also utilized to estimate strength as well. Generally the more curved the band...the stronger the system.

MW

[vbhoutex]

I am learning so much viewing these great discussions. Keep it up guys!!!! Thanks!!!

[Guest]

I am enjoying the great discussions as well guys..........Very good work guys....

[ColdFront77]

I third the great discussion here.