The Gulf...

#1 Postby **Steve** » Thu Jun 05, 2003 11:07 am

Storms continue to fire up in the central Gulf, gradually migrating northerly with time apparently due to a split in the stream flow. It looks to me like divergence between a frontal boundary across FL and some NW winds coming down through TX interacting with the northern end of a tropical wave. Various models continue to migrate the tropical moisture northerly then perhaps ENE/NE. The key as to who will eventually get any substantial rainfall from the system is where one is relative to flareups in the convection. That could be SE LA, coastal or central MS/AL or the mid-Atlantic states.

Here is some of the convection on Brownsville radar

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kbro.shtml

As for any tropical potential, I'd say look at eastern MX. My best guess at the center of the surface low puts it around 17.95 x 96.69-97.05. It's hard to tell on the Goes-8 visible exactly where the center is, but there is definitely a broad surface low. I would expect that over time the low will move northward through Mexico. It is possible that the broad low pressure can move NE and into the western Gulf which would require monitoring. But I don't see that beyond a 10-15% chance.
Steve

mf_dolphin · #2 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Thu Jun 05, 2003 1:04 pm

Thanks for the info Steve! I agree it probably won't develop but maybe at least some people will get some needed rain! We also get a chance to get in some early blobology. :-)

Lindaloo · #3 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Jun 05, 2003 1:27 pm

They have increased our chances of rain here on the MS gulf coast from 30% to 80% for tomorrow. Hopefully we will get some of that rain, we sure could use it.

#4 Postby **bfez1** » Thu Jun 05, 2003 3:00 pm

I am having a "come as you are" blob party. All invited. :lol:

Desperate, huh??? :roll:

#5 Postby **BreinLa** » Thu Jun 05, 2003 3:26 pm

heheheh bonnie I been partying all day

Rainband · #6 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jun 05, 2003 3:31 pm

At least someone wil get rain!!!!!! :wink:

#7 Postby **bfez1** » Thu Jun 05, 2003 3:32 pm

Hey bre, where's my invite???

#8 Postby **BreinLa** » Thu Jun 05, 2003 3:36 pm

Sorry bonnie you are always invited to a Blobber or Blobetter Party lol

#9 Postby **wx247** » Thu Jun 05, 2003 3:43 pm

Yeah...tropical development or not... a very impressive blob.

#10 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jun 05, 2003 5:06 pm

Well we have had rain for most of the afternoon here in Houston, but it has nothing to do with the BLOB. It is a disturbance that traversed TX last night all the way from Lubbock and held together well enough to catch the heating of the day and dump SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN on Houston. Another round possible tomorrow.

Even though the BLOB has T no's. assigned to it now I do not expect tropical development from it ATT. Still too much shear. As the shear begins to relax tomorrow and Saturday, if the blob is still persisting, we will be watching it much more closely. More than likely, this area of showers and storms will begin to move NE tonight or tomorrow and move into SE LA or along the MS/AL coast and give the SE a good drenching.

MScoast · #11 Postby **MScoast** » Thu Jun 05, 2003 5:44 pm

bfez1 wrote:I am having a "come as you are" blob party. All invited.
Desperate, huh???

I'll be there :lol:

#12 Postby **bfez1** » Thu Jun 05, 2003 7:01 pm

Looking forward to seeing you at the party, MS :lol:

chadtm80 · #13 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu Jun 05, 2003 7:07 pm

Any room for me???????????????????

Lindaloo · #14 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Jun 05, 2003 9:39 pm

Count me in. hee hee. Hopefully we will not be invited to a hurricane party this year!! hoo boy.

The Gulf...

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