Accuwx Issues Same Prediction Again

[CrazyC83]

All I need to know about JB's predictions is summed up with his "risk map": Nova Scotia has a higher risk of a hurricane landfall than the Florida Panhandle. Even in a "bad (good) year," the Florida Panhandle should have a higher risk than Nova Scotia. This goes so far against climatology that it's ridiculous.

According to Hurricanecity.com, Cape Sable in Nova Scotia experiences a "direct hit" an average of once every 45 years. Destin once every 9.64 years.

I recommend everyone save this risk map now, because I doubt you'll see it again at the end of the season.

Yep, that was the point of my post. Apparently, in the video, it's explained that these risks are relative to normal. IMO it should say so on the map then. Otherwise, normally intelligent people are just confused.

Hurricane landfalls aren't as uncommon as you think up there though...in the past 11 years, there have been five hurricanes (Luis-95, Hortense-96, Michael-00, Gustav-02, Juan-03) and five tropical storms (Barry-95, Gert-99, Gabrielle-01, Karen-01, Ophelia-05) making landfall in Atlantic Canada.

[OuterBanker]

East coast a major threat for 2006 hurricane season factors and information.

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promo-ad.as ... hurr2006_2

I guess not really good news for NC. Hope he's wrong again.

[CrazyC83]

Here are the areas I have come up with for subdividing the basins, and my 2006 risk estimate for each area:

Area 1 - East Coast
1A - Newfoundland - High
1B - Nova Scotia east of Metro Halifax - High
1C - Metro Halifax to NS/NB border - High
1D - NS/NB border to Portsmouth NH - High
1E - Portsmouth NH to Watch Hill RI - High
1F - Watch Hill RI to East Point NJ including Delaware Bay - Extreme
1G - East Point NJ to VA/NC border including Chesapeake Bay - Extreme
1H - VA/NC border to Surf City NC - Extreme
1I - Surf City NC to Edisto Beach SC - Extreme
1J - Edisto Beach SC to Fernandina Beach FL - High
1K - Fernandina Beach FL to Cocoa Beach FL - High
1L - Cocoa Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL - High
1M - Jupiter Inlet FL to S tip of FL mainland - Extreme
1N - Florida Keys - Extreme

Area 2 - Gulf of Mexico Coast
2A - S tip of FL mainland to Englewood FL - High
2B - Englewood FL to Suwannee River FL - High
2C - Suwannee River FL to Indian Pass FL - Moderate
2D - Indian Pass FL to FL/AL border - High
2E - FL/AL border to mouth of Pearl River - High
2F - Mouth of Pearl River to Intracoastal City LA - High
2G - Intracoastal City LA to Freeport TX - High
2H - Freeport TX to Corpus Christi TX - Extreme
2I - Corpus Christi TX to TX-Mexican border - Extreme
2J - TX-Mexican border to Tampico MX - Extreme
2K - Tampico MX to Palma Sola MX (20°N latitude) - High
2L - Palma Sola MX (20°N) to Veracruz/Tabasco border - High
2M - Veracruz/Tabasco border to Celestun MX - Moderate
2N - Celestun MX to Cabo Catoche MX (tip of Yucatan) - High

Area 3 - Caribbean Mainland Coast
3A - Cabo Catoche MX (tip of Yucatan) to Chetumal MX - Extreme
3B - Belize coast - Moderate
3C - Honduras coast - High
3D - Nicaragua coast - High
3E - Costa Rica coast - Moderate
3F - Panama coast W of the Panama Canal - Moderate
3G - Panama Canal to Cartagena - Low
3H - Cartagena to Maracaibo - Low
3I - Maracaibo to Venezuela/Guyana border - Low
3J - Guyana southward - Minimal

Area 4 - Caribbean Islands
4A - Cuba west of 80°W + Cayman Islands - Extreme
4B - Cuba from 77°W to 80°W - High
4C - Cuba east of 77°W - High
4D - Jamaica - High
4E - NW Bahamas - Extreme
4F - Central/SE Bahamas - Extreme
4G - Haiti - High
4H - Dominican Republic - High
4I - Puerto Rico - High
4J - Virgin Islands + French West Indies - High
4K - Windward Islands - Extreme
4L - Leeward Islands - High
4M - Trinidad and Tobago - Moderate
4N - Aruba + Netherlands Antilles - Moderate

Area 5 - Other Areas
5A - Bermuda - High
5B - Cape Verde Islands - Moderate
5C - Canary Islands - Low
5D - Azores - Moderate
5E - African coast - Minimal
5F - Mainland Europe west coast - Low
5G - European coast north of the English Channel - Low
5H - Iceland - Moderate
5I - Greenland coast - Moderate

[Ivanhater]

OMG, you have got to be kidding me, I'm in a low risk??? The northeast is at greater risk than me? Bad thing is, our local station(who subscribes to Accuweather ) was telling our area that it was good news for us. Any company who puts the northeast at greater risk than the Forida panhandle gets NO respect from me. Didnt they issue the same forecast last year? I guess if you keep giving the same prediction over and over, it will verify sometime, ok Accuweather

[Steve]

While an otherwise awesome presentation CrazyC83, in a million years how would you ever defend that list?

Steve

[CrazyC83]

While an otherwise awesome presentation CrazyC83, in a million years how would you ever defend that list?

Steve

It's just my thought at this point. Since there are few spots that seem to be headed for a clearing, good time to prepare!

[CrazyC83]

OMG, you have got to be kidding me, I'm in a low risk??? the northeast is at greater risk than me? Bad think is, our local station(who subscribes to accuweather ) was telling our area that it was good news for us. any company who puts the northeast at greater risk than the florida panhandle gets NO respect from me. Didnt they issue the same forecast last year? I guess if you keep giving the same prediction over and over, it will verify sometime, ok accuweather

While I agree that the Northeast is in for a mean surprise this year, that certainly does not put you out of the woods for a major storm from the Gulf either...

[Extremeweatherguy]

OMG, you have got to be kidding me, I'm in a low risk??? The northeast is at greater risk than me? Bad thing is, our local station(who subscribes to Accuweather ) was telling our area that it was good news for us. Any company who puts the northeast at greater risk than the Forida panhandle gets NO respect from me. Didnt they issue the same forecast last year? I guess if you keep giving the same prediction over and over, it will verify sometime, ok Accuweather

these low and high risk areas are based on the climatological average for the area. So a moderate risk in Alabama and a high risk in New York are really no different.

[Steve]

>>OMG, you have got to be kidding me, I'm in a low risk??? The northeast is at greater risk than me? Bad thing is, our local station(who subscribes to Accuweather ) was telling our area that it was good news for us. Any company who puts the northeast at greater risk than the Forida panhandle gets NO respect from me. Didnt they issue the same forecast last year? I guess if you keep giving the same prediction over and over, it will verify sometime, ok Accuweather

No. That was already addressed. It's not a comparison of high risk to low risk it's compared to "as normal." I'm not trying to defend their graphic, because it's poorly done. But if you look at the 'abstract' (for lack of a better term) that OuterBanker posted, you will notice comments like "above normal" or "relative to normal." So what they're saying is not that Maine has a higher risk than Escambia Co. (as I said on Page 1 or 2), just that maybe Maine has a higher risk relative to climatological averages.

Steve

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Actually SE Newfoundland get both direct hits, and brushes more often than Nova Scotia does. After all Hortense in 1996 was the first hurricane to make landfall as a cat. 1 in the area since Blanche in 1975; that is of course a span of 21 years. Juan in 2003 was the first cat 2 to make landfall since Ginny in 1963; that is of course a span of 40 years.


Here in New Brunswick for example we have gone 36 years, since Gerda in 1969, without a direct hit by even a cat 1 hurricane. Ginny in 1963 was our last cat 2, and reanalysis points to Edna in 1954 being at least a cat 2, probably even a minimum cat 3, thus being our last probable major hit. Though this is not yet official.


The point of the above is it doesn't happen that often, thus I doubt any part of the Maritimes should have a higher risk than say Florida.

[southerngale]

While nobody has to read every post, it is helpful before posting a reply. It seems the same confusion keeps coming up when it's been explained several times in this thread. Just a suggestion....

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I do see what you mean. And in both 1869 and 1954 Eastern New England had two possible major landfalls, so it could maybe happen again. However the chances are quite low on average. I doubt anyone can accurately predict where hurricanes will hit before they have even formed yet. That is the holy grail of tropical cyclone forecasting skill after all. I hope to see it accomplished in my lifetime, but I remain skeptical.

[Dean4Storms]

If you throw enough darts at a particular bullseye (East Coast), sooner or later you can get lucky. JB knows no more about where hurricanes will strike this year than the rest of us!!

[Jim Cantore]

statments about the Gulf threat diminishing for August/Sept 05

[Extremeweatherguy]

If you throw enough darts at a particular bullseye (East Coast), sooner or later you can get lucky. JB knows no more about where hurricanes will strike this year than the rest of us!!

Being a meteorologist and the accuweather so-called "hurricane-expert", I would have to say that he probably has a better idea of where they may travel than the rest of us.

[boca]

I have to say when JB was streaming his updates they were interesting and entertaining.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well after seeing what cat 3s, and a couple of cat 2s, did to Florida and the Gulf the past two seasons. I personally hope his predictions for my neck of the woods do not hold true. A TS, or a Remnant low and perhaps even a cat 1 (if weak and fast moving), maybe be interesting, but a full fledged cat 2 or 3 (at landfall) would not be

[terstorm1012]

The analog for 1954 doesn't seem to be holding up if we use Springtime rainfall in the East as critieria.

The dryness is in the mid-Atlantic states and southward. the Northeast is of course quite wet.

critiques welcome.

[windycity]

I hate to say it , but it was j.b. who got katrina right last year, and he predicted her very early on. I think hes made some good calls, so lets all keep open minds on what he has to say. The bottom line?? WE all have to prepare. Prepare as if your life depended on it, because it just might.

[skysummit]

Sure JB got Katrina right! He's been predicting a New Orleans devastation for years now. He's bound to get it right one year! Same thing goes for New York.